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Reassuring confidence

Update | Basic Industries | 05 Apr 2018

Following the exceptional results Treatt posted in FY17, momentum has continued in the business and revenues were up c 10% in H1. The core categories of citrus, tea and sugar reduction continue to drive the business, demonstrating that the company is well placed to capitalise on current trends in the food and beverage space: management's outlook for FY18 remains unchanged. H1 will suffer from slightly negative FX effects, but US tax reform should lead to a significantly lower tax rate in future. We leave our forecasts unchanged at this stage, but see upside to our EPS forecasts from the lower tax rate, which remains unquantified at present.


Growth continues apace

Update | Basic Industries | 30 Nov 2017

Treatt has posted yet another year of excellent growth, with revenues up 25% and adjusted PBT up c 45%. The company has reached its FY20 financial objectives three years early, and the management has therefore updated its strategy to take the company through to the next phase. A new facility is being built in the UK, and the US site is being expanded. Both projects are on track and Treatt has now announced a share placing to fund these projects. This was always flagged as a possibility. We update our forecasts to reflect the FY17 results and the share placement. Our fair value is 515p (from 522p previously).


New strategy playing out

Update | Basic Industries | 17 May 2016

Treatt has yet again reported a strong set of results. The strategy to improve the quality of earnings is coming through, as proven by these results: the move from commoditised sales to more value-added products has caused sales to be marginally down, and yet margins are up. We leave our forecasts unchanged as we believe the new strategy will continue to play out.


A more normal year

Update | Basic Industries | 04 Dec 2018

Treatt has reported yet another set of strong results in FY18. The company remains in the sweet spot of current consumer trends, with ingredients that help to deliver better-for-you products with clean labels and without compromising on taste. The US expansion is on track and on budget, and will be fully operational in H119. The UK relocation is progressing well, although it is more complex and the timetable has slipped by about six months. FY19 has started well, and at this stage we leave our estimates broadly unchanged. Our DCF-derived fair value remains 510p.


Consolidating gains

Update | Basic Industries | 08 Oct 2018

The FY18 trading update confirms that momentum continues to drive Treatt’s business. Following the exceptional results posted throughout FY17, Treatt witnessed like-for-like revenue growth of 10% in H118, and 9% for FY18, suggesting some deceleration in H2. Growth remains broad-based, with all core categories contributing, and demonstrating that the business is well-placed to capitalise on current trends in the food and beverage space. Management’s outlook and expectations for the year remain unchanged, but we trim our forecasts to reflect gross margin headwinds.


Going strong

Outlook | Basic Industries | 15 May 2018

Treatt has transformed itself from a commodity-based ingredients company into a supplier of value-added ingredients and ingredient solutions. The previous strategy was delivered three years ahead of target, following a stellar FY17, and the new strategy introduced last September builds on the strong momentum in the business, which has seen five consecutive years of earnings above company expectations. Our DCF analysis points to a value of 540p/share, supported by peer group analysis that places the stock at a c 10% discount to its competitors.


A full year Treat(t)

Update | Basic Industries | 03 Oct 2017

Treatt has had yet another outstanding year, continuously exceeding expectations and meeting its 2020 strategic objectives three years early. The board has already approved a plan to drive the business through to 2022 that seeks to build on this success. We raise our EPS forecasts by 3% in FY17 to reflect the strong performance, though our FY18 and FY19 EPS estimates fall by 1-7% due to higher interest costs. Our DCF-derived fair value increases to 522p from 438p, which represents c 10% upside.


A brilliant half

Update | Basic Industries | 09 May 2017

Treatt has delivered yet another strong set of results. The business continues to perform very well and the constant stream of upgrades demonstrates the strength of momentum as the company moves further up the value chain. The pipeline is looking increasingly strong and recent growth means capacity expansion costing $11-14m is required at Treatt USA and is independent of the UK site relocation. We upgrade our FY18 and FY19 earnings estimates by c 2% and c 4%, respectively.


Another upward surprise

Update | Basic Industries | 07 Apr 2017

Despite the surprise trading statement of 23 February, which led us to raise our sales forecasts by c 10% and PBT and EPS by c 20-30%, Treatt has yet again upgraded its outlook for FY17, which leads us to raise our EPS forecasts again by c 6-9%. Our fair value increases to 401p (from 350p) as a result. The constant stream of upgrades demonstrates the strength of momentum in the business as the company moves further up the value chain.


Keep Treat(t)ing

Update | Basic Industries | 27 Feb 2017

Treatt has yet again beaten expectations by delivering an exceptionally strong start to FY17 despite Q1 typically being a seasonally weak quarter. The success is across the board and has led to a surprise trading statement (23 February). We upgrade our forecasts to reflect the strong sales growth and also the margin improvement as Treatt moves further up the value chain. Our fair value increases to 350p (from 293p) as a result.


What a Treatt

Outlook | Basic Industries | 18 Jan 2017

Treatt is steadily transforming itself from a seller of flavour and fragrance-based commodities to a value-added ingredients supplier. The strategy of deep customer knowledge is paying off, leading to stronger relationships, a real competitive advantage and greater profitability, with EBIT margins increasing from 9.6% in 2014 to 10.8% in 2016. Management has delivered four consecutive years of earnings above expectations and the momentum remains strong. Our DCF analysis calculates a fair value of 293p, supported by benchmark analysis that places the stock at a c 30% discount to its peer group.


Staying sweet

Update | Basic Industries | 30 Nov 2016

Results have yet again beaten our forecasts and the management has now delivered the fourth consecutive year of earnings above expectations. The share price is up 41% over the last three months, and Treatt is steadily moving from commoditised sales to more value-added products. Its strategy of deep customer relationships is paying off, giving it a real competitive advantage and improving margins. The year finished strongly and momentum is due to continue in the traditionally seasonally weaker Q117. Our P&L forecasts are broadly maintained, but our fair value moves to 272p (from 240p) as a result of stronger cash flow.