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Accsys Technologies

Accoya volume rising, more capacity on stream

Update | General Industrials | 21 Sep 2018

AGM comments point to operational progress at Arnhem and an on-track construction schedule for the new Tricoya facility at Hull. Accsys has set out a clear development plan for the group; while we are not placing undue weight on a short trading period, we are encouraged to see that growing revenues and production volumes have been achieved in the year to date.


Pure play, clear focus

Initiation | Construction & Building Materials | 10 Sep 2018

The simplified corporate structure presents investors in Rubicon (RBC) with a pure-play, advanced forestry genetics business with leading positions in large international markets for its seedlings. The conversion of these positions into profitable growth through customer migration to more advanced seedlings is the likely driver of further share price outperformance in our view. Our own DCF analysis – implicitly more conservative than the company’s – yields a NZ$0.74 per share valuation.


Good, balanced UK trading, India orders growing

Update | General Industrials | 05 Sep 2018

Severfield’s (SFR’s) AGM statement retained management’s existing guidance for FY19. The year has started well in the UK – a more even profit profile is anticipated overall – and confidence in the Indian JV’s outlook is supporting plans for further investment. Overall, it is a very solid update with a consistent message to investors. The recent ex-dividend share price move has increased the attraction of earnings-based valuation multiples.

Walker Greenbank

Earnings pressure but asset backing

Update | General Industrials | 03 Aug 2018

Management recently flagged licence and UK order book development below levels anticipated at the AGM and lowered FY19 PBT guidance to the GBP 9.5–10m range. The share price is now at its lowest level for over five years and – trading below NAV – implicitly attributes no value to the brand portfolio. A dividend yield in excess of 5% could also be an attraction.


Well positioned going into H2

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 31 Jul 2018

North American growth remains the primary driver of underlying growth and acquisitions are also contributing to moving earnings forward. Good housekeeping with regard to ongoing operational footprint improvement and careful management of pricing against input cost rises are also important contributors to underlying business momentum. Investor sentiment should remain supportive, especially given a favourable US economic growth outlook.


Good start to the year

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 30 Jul 2018

FY19 has started well for Norcros and management expectations for full-year progress are unchanged. The maiden Q1 contribution from Merlyn has more than offset Johnson Tiles’ (JT’s) revenue reduction and other operations collectively continue to show good growth. As before, we maintain that a positive re-rating is likely.


So far, so good

Update | Industrial Support Services | 24 Jul 2018

The recent AGM update was consistent with FY18 commentary; guidance and our estimates are unchanged. Year-to-date progress is clearly visible in three divisions where market conditions appear to be favourable. In the fourth (Hazardous), new customer demand is successfully building; management’s expectation remains for this to start to be met during H2, subject to regulatory clearance. Flagged merger integration benefits for FY19 are as before. The intention to move to euro-based reporting with the H119 results is entirely logical and reflects the company’s primary source of profitability.

Low & Bonar

H1 profits disappoint but change is underway

Update | Basic Industries | 23 Jul 2018

The new management team has a clear focus on improving financial and operational performance across the group and individual business units. H1 results bear testament to a number of challenges faced in the period but also showed signs that actions are beginning to take effect. We have reduced our EPS estimates (by c 20% this year, c 10% in the following two) to reflect more conservative margin assumptions.

Telford Homes

Consistent messaging

QuickView | General Industrials | 12 Jul 2018

Telford Homes’ latest update is consistent with management comments accompanying FY18 results and the company is on track to deliver further progress in FY19. The share price has not kept step with business performance, perhaps influenced by wider cyclical sentiment. Project portfolio newsflow is likely to remain positive, and this should serve to re-connect internal progress and investor returns in our view.

Accsys Technologies

Accelerated growth

Initiation | General Industrials | 09 Jul 2018

Building on Accsys's established international presence the current significant investment phase (EUR 80m+ capex) should be the catalyst for accelerated business growth. We expect Accsys to move into a group EBITDA positive position from FY19 with the significant profit potential to be progressively delivered thereafter. Our DCF analysis suggests that the share price is solidly underpinned at current levels with upside from enhanced commercial development of proprietary technology.


Explicit growth aspirations

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 29 Jun 2018

Variable underlying markets did not prevent Norcros from delivering both organic and acquired progress in FY18. Moreover, a new target of almost doubling revenue by 2023 has been set with ROCE sustained above 15%+. Share price movements suggest that the market is starting to give credit for management’s achievements. Performance will be measured against the strategic plan and we believe that a further re-rating is likely.


Progress made, more expected

Update | General Industrials | 28 Jun 2018

A good all-round performance in FY18 provided some positive markers of progress including rising UK margins, a steep step-up in the Indian JV order book and a special dividend declared for the year. While we acknowledge some sector variations, the overall trading outlook appears to be similarly robust and our estimates are modestly higher now. A c 4% near-term yield (ie final plus special DPS) is an obvious draw. Sector diversity provides resilience and additional growth potential in our view.