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Developing in line with expectations

Update | General Industrials | 06 Dec 2018

Well-flagged H119 results contained few surprises with a solid UK performance backed by gathering momentum in the Indian JV. Order book and margin development will continue to be tracked closely; management commentary on this and market developments have been consistently good and existing guidance is unchanged. We believe that Severfield’s well-financed, market-leading position will continue to be beneficial and steady growth in earnings and dividends is an attractive proposition for investors.


Trading reasonable but share price weak

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 21 Nov 2018

Tyman’s trading update referenced firmer demand in two important European markets, some short-term input cost drag in North America and two small acquisitions, which enhance the group’s commercial and residential offerings respectively. Our small net EPS reduction for FY18 is followed by slightly larger upgrades in the following two years and, after a weak share price period, leaves Tyman trading on 7.7x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiples in FY19 (first full year of acquisition contributions). Separately, Tyman has announced a CEO succession path with Louis Eperjesi to retire in June 2019, to be replaced by Jo Hallas (from Spectris).

Premier Technical Services Group

Complementary Electrical Services acquisition

Update | Industrial Support Services | 22 Oct 2018

Premier Technical Services Group (PTSG) is expanding its Electrical Services divisional portfolio via the acquisition of Guardian Electrical Compliance, a complementary national testing and compliance company. A GBP 20m placing has funded this GBP 12m deal and provides finance for additional ones that appear to be well advanced. On a full-year basis, Guardian alone enhances our FY19 and FY20 EPS by c 4%, with the prospect of more to come, subject to concluding further deals.


Positive progress in H1

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 18 Oct 2018

The Norcros H119 pre-close update reiterated management’s expectations for progress in FY19. Trading newsflow was similar to that reported in Q1 – with a good uplift to UK EBIT anticipated for H119 and a growing South African top-line – albeit with an implicitly slightly quieter second quarter. Brand presence, coupled with product and channel diversity, appears to be supporting ongoing progress in variable market conditions. Our estimates are unchanged and H119 results are scheduled for 15 November.

Walker Greenbank

H1 dividend and full year guidance unchanged

Update | General Industrials | 18 Oct 2018

Following H119 results, our full-year earnings estimates look attainable and are unchanged. Group strategy has been clearly stated, although a change in management may give rise to some shift of emphasis within Brands. Walker Greenbank’s share price is up from September lows, but has not really shown any appreciable recovery in a longer-term context and currently sits c 20% below our projected year-end NAV. The prospective dividend yield – heavily weighted towards final DPS – is now 5%.

Telford Homes

Making progress, laying down markers

QuickView | General Industrials | 16 Oct 2018

A 10 October update put down some clear markers for open-market sales to attain GBP 50m+ group PBT in FY19 and for build-to-rent (BTR) sector expectations during H219. Some market risk remains evident at higher open-market price points and, with increasingly risk-averse UK equity market sentiment, Telford’s trading update was not well received. However, short-term market conditions are not distracting management from the development of an attractive pipeline of future project opportunities.

Premier Technical Services Group

Head for heights

Initiation | Industrial Support Services | 08 Oct 2018

Premier Technical Services Group (PTSG) has strong positions in its specialist services sectors, focused on safe building-operating environments. It has an outstanding organic- and acquisition-driven profit growth track record and a robust business model that drives efficiencies in operational performance. The share price has moved sideways for much of this year; the current rating anticipates healthy growth and we consider that a combination of existing organic momentum and M&A potential will be able to deliver this.


Guidance unchanged at the end of H1

Update | Industrial Support Services | 02 Oct 2018

Existing guidance for FY19 has been maintained. As before, this is partly dependent on ATM resuming full production by the end of October and an update on this will come with the H119 results, which are scheduled for 8 November. Otherwise, a better Municipal performance appears to be compensating for slight Q2 softness in other sub-sectors. Share price performance YTD is at odds with trading newsflow and H119 results may serve to remind investors of the value opportunity on offer.

Low & Bonar

Tough conditions persisting in H2

Update | Basic Industries | 27 Sep 2018

While volume growth is being achieved in several divisions, some of the factors that affected H1 trading – most notably higher input costs – have not receded as quickly as anticipated. Underlying operational improvements are happening but have not been enough to offset these pressures to date. We have lowered FY18 earnings expectations sharply – slowing the rate of net debt reduction a little – with a flat DPS profile now.

Epwin Group

Some positive trading aspects in lower H1

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 26 Sep 2018

Lower H118 profit and a greater H2 bias were both well trailed by management. Each reporting division had its trading headwinds, but also saw some positive underlying performances. Footprint consolidation projects are progressing and these developments should complement the usual seasonal improvement in H2 profitability. That said, we have elected to trim our margin expectations, resulting in 5-6% forecast EPS reductions. Even with subdued earnings, investors can access a 6%+ dividend yield.

Accsys Technologies

Accoya volume rising, more capacity on stream

Update | General Industrials | 24 Sep 2018

AGM comments point to operational progress at Arnhem and an on-track construction schedule for the new Tricoya facility at Hull. Accsys has set out a clear development plan for the group; while we are not placing undue weight on a short trading period, we are encouraged to see that growing revenues and production volumes have been achieved in the year to date.


Pure play, clear focus

Initiation | Construction & Building Materials | 10 Sep 2018

The simplified corporate structure presents investors in Rubicon (RBC) with a pure-play, advanced forestry genetics business with leading positions in large international markets for its seedlings. The conversion of these positions into profitable growth through customer migration to more advanced seedlings is the likely driver of further share price outperformance in our view. Our own DCF analysis – implicitly more conservative than the company’s – yields a NZ$0.74 per share valuation.