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Walker Greenbank

Expectations met, tough UK conditions persist

Update | General Industrials | 26 Feb 2019

Year-end comments confirm FY19 results are expected to be in line with management estimates. Strong Licensing performance is likely to have contributed meaningfully to this outcome and towards an ungeared balance sheet position. UK market trends remain weak and cause us to reduce our earnings estimates by 20–25% for FY20 and FY21 although, in the absence of fresh guidance, we have assumed that DPS is maintained at FY18 levels ahead of FY19 results, which are scheduled for 10 April.

Low & Bonar

Better funded for core strategy execution

Update | Basic Industries | 18 Feb 2019

Low & Bonar announced a fully underwritten £54m placing and open offer (c £50m net) alongside FY18 results. The new equity funding goes a long way towards resolving balance sheet net debt constraints and allows the relatively new management team to execute its updated strategic plan. Our revised estimates incorporate the funding effects, more gradual EBIT margin recovery and reset dividends in line with the stated policy.

Epwin Group

In-line year-end update

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 06 Feb 2019

Consistent messaging from the Epwin management team continued with a year-end update that confirmed that FY18 trading had been in line with market expectations. The theme of self-help given market headwinds is ongoing with tangible evidence of actions taken and planned. Market backdrop uncertainty is reflected in Epwin’s rating multiples. A dividend yield approaching 7% (c 1.9x covered) should be of interest to investors.

Premier Technical Services

Trinity acquisition enhances earnings by c 10%

Update | Industrial Support Services | 23 Jan 2019

PTSG has announced the acquisition of Trinity Fire and Security Systems along with a brief trading update noting that FY18 ended in line with management expectations. Trinity brings in a scale presence in electrical/ electronic systems, while its expertise complements PTSG’s existing Fire Solutions capabilities and expands the combined service offer. We have increased our earnings estimates by c 10% and, on this basis, the stock is trading on FY19 multiples of 11.3x P/E and 8.7x EV/EBITDA.

Rubicon

Well-positioned going into H2

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 20 Dec 2018

Rubicon’s H1 performance contained typical seasonal trading features ahead of the more important H2 trading period and our earnings estimates are unchanged. We are encouraged to see a number of positive commercial steps being taken in each of the main countries, which will support future aspirations. Our earnings estimates are unchanged as is our previous DCF valuation analysis which indicated a NZ$0.74 per share valuation.

Low & Bonar

Re-set dividend expectations, targeting recovery

Update | Basic Industries | 19 Dec 2018

Improving operating and financial performance and lower net debt are key management objectives. FY18 results should provide some evidence of progress here, although our revised estimates now contain lower margin and dividend expectations in all three forecast years. Balance sheet clarity and margin recovery will be key share price catalysts, in our view.

Norcros

Growing and investing

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 19 Dec 2018

Norcros continues to deliver a progressive trading performance ahead of local market conditions and in line with management guidance. Its share price has risen this year, significantly outperforming the FTSE All Share Index, but the company’s rating remains in single-digit P/E territory. It seems that re-rating will be a gradual process but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that this can continue.

Accsys Technologies

Moving to EBITDA positive

Update | General Industrials | 19 Dec 2018

Accsys continues to make positive progress and is now generating revenue from its latest investment at Arnhem. We expect the new, under-construction Tricoya facility to follow suit within the next year, at which point annual group revenue potential will be around EUR 150m according to management. In the near term, we expect to see an EBITDA positive outturn in FY19.

Renewi

Near-term trading distracting from long-term trend

Update | Industrial Support Services | 17 Dec 2018

Longer-term recycling trends remain favourable and the next phase of strategic development indicates greater focus in core areas to pursue growth. In the near term, we acknowledge that ATM will be a distraction until full permit authority is formally restored and is weighing on our earnings expectations, which have stepped down by c 20% this year and by a lower double-digit percentage in the following two years. In a period of stark, risk-averse market sentiment, Renewi’s share price has suffered, but a 20%+ NAV discount and an 8% prospective dividend yield should be clear triggers for investors.

Severfield

Developing in line with expectations

Update | General Industrials | 06 Dec 2018

Well-flagged H119 results contained few surprises with a solid UK performance backed by gathering momentum in the Indian JV. Order book and margin development will continue to be tracked closely; management commentary on this and market developments have been consistently good and existing guidance is unchanged. We believe that Severfield’s well-financed, market-leading position will continue to be beneficial and steady growth in earnings and dividends is an attractive proposition for investors.

Tyman

Trading reasonable but share price weak

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 21 Nov 2018

Tyman’s trading update referenced firmer demand in two important European markets, some short-term input cost drag in North America and two small acquisitions, which enhance the group’s commercial and residential offerings respectively. Our small net EPS reduction for FY18 is followed by slightly larger upgrades in the following two years and, after a weak share price period, leaves Tyman trading on 7.7x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiples in FY19 (first full year of acquisition contributions). Separately, Tyman has announced a CEO succession path with Louis Eperjesi to retire in June 2019, to be replaced by Jo Hallas (from Spectris).

Premier Technical Services

Complementary Electrical Services acquisition

Update | Industrial Support Services | 22 Oct 2018

Premier Technical Services Group (PTSG) is expanding its Electrical Services divisional portfolio via the acquisition of Guardian Electrical Compliance, a complementary national testing and compliance company. A GBP 20m placing has funded this GBP 12m deal and provides finance for additional ones that appear to be well advanced. On a full-year basis, Guardian alone enhances our FY19 and FY20 EPS by c 4%, with the prospect of more to come, subject to concluding further deals.