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Making good progress

Update | Financials | 27 Oct 2017

Share’s third quarter update confirmed the positive trends reported in August, with further market share gains and continuing work on its digital transformation providing evidence of the fruits of the investment already made and signalling continued measures to improve the customer experience to underpin further, profit-enhancing growth.

Oryzon Genomics

Awaiting for eventful 2019

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 Jul 2018

The next year is shaping up to be transformative for Oryzon with two data readouts from Phase IIa trials with ORY-2001 in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and multiple sclerosis (MS). In addition, an innovative design basket trial with ORY-2001 in several neuropsychiatric disorders may also deliver first results next year. Oryzon is resuming the development of ORY-1001 in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). While Roche’s departure was a setback in 2017, the stars started to align again after the Biogen Abeta antibody data provided a much-needed boost for AD research industry and indirectly for Oryzon’s ORY-2001. Furthermore, a fundamental study published in Cell described the potential of LSD1 inhibition in immunooncology setting adding a new dimension to ORY-1001’s potential. We value Oryzon at EUR 328m or EUR 9.6/share (vs EUR 9.4/share).


Shifts in US CRC screening; major catalysts in H2

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 Jul 2018

VolitionRx has broad R&D programme and expects to announce major milestones in the coming months, culminating with CE marking and launch of both colorectal cancer (CRC) triage and frontline screening tests in Europe, potentially in 2019. Other recent positive developments include a recommendation to reduce age to start CRC screening in the US and a new legislative initiative that could help increase reimbursement coverage in the US. Our valuation is $243m or $7.02 per share (vs $6.93 per share).

Carr's Group

Both divisions slightly ahead of expectations

Update | Consumer staples | 18 Jul 2018

The recovery in both US feed block sales and the UK manufacturing businesses noted at Carr’s Group’s AGM in January has continued through to the end of June. As both divisions are trading slightly ahead of management’s expectations at the interim stage, we raise our estimates again and revise our indicative valuation from 169p/share to 178p/share.


US Purch-ase

Update | Media | 18 Jul 2018

Future is taking a major step towards realising its US ambitions with the acquisition of Purch for $132.5m/GBP 100.1m, fully funded by a rights issue of 3 new for 4 existing shares at 303p. The purchase fits neatly with Future’s existing media brands and tech-enabled culture and expands the US revenue base to around half of group (historic pro-forma). The purchase price represents 2.1x Purch’s CY17 revenues, 13.1x EBITDA, and management expects the transaction to be materially enhancing to earnings in its first full year, FY19. On the ex-rights price and indicative forecasts, the shares will be trading on an undeserved discount to peers.

Allium Medical Solutions

Continuing to execute on an ambitious plan

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 17 Jul 2018

Following broad FDA approval for Gardia, Allium anticipates the publication of clinical study results in a leading cardiology journal. Allium believes this will further increase Gardia’s attractiveness for both physicians and potential partners. Allium has secured approval for most of its urology stents and soft tissue fixation products in its main markets. We expect additional product approvals during 2018 and sales growth from its distribution deals in new and established markets. Allium’s business model is based on distribution agreements with regional partners, with a minimum purchase commitment. New agreements are worth at least NIS192m in total over approximately five years, which supports our 2017–20e revenue CAGR of 57%. Our updated valuation is NIS1.91/share.


Near-term data to define long-term strategy

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 16 Jul 2018

Transgene develops virus-based product candidates for use in oncology and infectious diseases, its five clinical products are currently in 11 clinical trials across a variety of indications, its most advanced is Phase III trial with Pexa-Vec in first-line Hepatocellular Carcinoma with data anticipated in 2019. Its strategy remains to develop its candidates in combination with approved treatments, notably immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). It anticipates eight clinical readouts across its five clinical candidates by year end, notably TG4010 in combination with Opdivo and chemo in first-line NSCLC. We value Transgene at EUR 4.65/share vs EUR 3.80/share previously.

Basilea Pharmaceutica

Oncology product portfolio to drive future growth

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 16 Jul 2018

Basilea has successfully brought two anti-infective drugs to the market: Cresemba (severe mould infections) and Zevtera (bacterial infections). With the commercialisation of both assets largely in the hands of partners and Zevtera’s Phase III US clinical programme underway, we turn our focus to the next pillar of growth, the oncology portfolio. The recent deal with ArQule (in-licensing of Phase II product, derazantinib) means Basilea now has three diversified, early/mid-stage clinical assets targeting cancer resistance in its portfolio offering. We value Basilea at CHF119/share.


One of the best ever quarters

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Jul 2018

In a well-received set of quarterly results, Orexo continued to execute on Zubsolv in the US, which, for the second quarter running, continued to be the only branded product in the category that increased its market share in the face of multiple generics. Zubsolv US revenues of SEK158.4m grew by 27.6% y-o-y, driving total revenues to SEK200m. EBITDA of SEK50.6m, cash flow from operations of SEK39m and a gross cash balance of SEK494.8m made Q218 one of Orexo’s best ever quarters.

Telford Homes

Consistent messaging

QuickView | General Industrials | 12 Jul 2018

Telford Homes’ latest update is consistent with management comments accompanying FY18 results and the company is on track to deliver further progress in FY19. The share price has not kept step with business performance, perhaps influenced by wider cyclical sentiment. Project portfolio newsflow is likely to remain positive, and this should serve to re-connect internal progress and investor returns in our view.

Ellomay Capital

Company guidance for FY18 confirmed at Q1

Update | Alternative Energy | 10 Jul 2018

Over 2017, Ellomay made large investments in new projects and in acquisitions, which we expect to drive significant revenue and profit growth in 2018. Results for Q1 (normally weak due to seasonality) showed a 20% y-o-y growth in revenues and were in line with management expectations for FY18. We expect the following quarters to also show a pick-up in earnings. Looking beyond 2018, Ellomay has announced significant progress on Talasol, a large Spanish solar PV plant, which could reach financial close before the 2018 year-end. Our valuation of $11.0 per share implies c 28% potential upside.


Transition year and strengthened balance sheet

Update | General Industrials | 09 Jul 2018

Carbios’s 2017 results were an important staging post on the journey from a pure research operation towards a market-ready business. The balance sheet has been strengthened and operations are fully funded into 2019. Announcements of partnership deals with other consumer brand owners, similar to that announced with L’Oréal, could act as a further share price catalyst. Our remodelled DCF provides an indicative valuation for Carbios of EUR 15/share.