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Making good progress

Update | Financials | 27 Oct 2017

Share’s third quarter update confirmed the positive trends reported in August, with further market share gains and continuing work on its digital transformation providing evidence of the fruits of the investment already made and signalling continued measures to improve the customer experience to underpin further, profit-enhancing growth.

EMIS Group

Internal review uncovers support issue

Update | Technology | 18 Jan 2018

In an otherwise in-line trading statement, EMIS announced an issue within its customer and product support processes for EMIS Web where it has not been fully meeting the service level and reporting requirements set by NHS Digital in England. This will result in an exceptional charge (our estimate GBP 9m) and potentially higher ongoing costs in the Primary Care business. A 5% reduction in EPS in FY18e and FY19e is more than discounted in the current share price. Further clarity that the scale and cost of this issue are contained should provide support to the share price.

4imprint Group

Strong Q4, US tax change gains

Update | Media | 17 Jan 2018

A continued strong performance in Q417 delivered 12% revenue growth in FY17 vs FY16, a shade ahead of our previous forecast. We see good top-line momentum into FY18e as the group takes further share in its large and fragmented market, benefiting from its targeted marketing. US taxation reforms will kick in for FY18 and our EPS forecast is lifted by 10%. Cash resource of $30.7m at end FY17 allows for an increased dividend with plenty of scope for additional investment as the business continues to scale. Our new FY19e numbers show further good earnings progress, with the valuation rating coming in to more attractive levels.

BiondVax Pharmaceuticals

Termination of coverage

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 16 Jan 2018

Since BiondVax shares are no longer traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), Edison Investment Research Ltd. has terminated coverage of the Company within the framework of the TASE analysis program.

Regional REIT

Asset growth and refinancing completed

Update | Property | 16 Jan 2018

RGL’s acquisition of two property portfolios, first announced in early December, for an aggregate consideration of GBP 93.4m including costs, completed just before Christmas. This followed the closing of a capital issue that raised GBP 73m (gross) in new equity at 101p per share. The group has also completed a major refinancing programme, simplifying the debt structure and extending maturity, at no additional cost. We reinstate our estimates, including the acquisitions, which add immediately to earnings, and the capital increase. We also take a slightly more cautious approach to 2018 and have trimmed our previously above consensus position.

Henderson Far East Income

Asian recovery sparks attractive opportunities

Review | Investment Companies | 16 Jan 2018

Henderson Far East Income’s (HFEL) lead fund manager, Mike Kerley, welcomes the resumption of earnings growth in the region after five years of stagnation. He says that attractive opportunities still abound in his favoured areas of cash-generative companies offering high dividend growth potential or high yields, with the recent rise in P/E ratios across the region only partially addressing the longstanding undervaluation versus the rest of the world. The portfolio currently has a cyclical tilt, with more in financials and consumer stocks and less in utilities and telecoms, yet HFEL still pays a high yield (currently 5.4%), fully covered by income. The fund has tended to trade at a small premium to NAV and issues shares to meet demand. The recent introduction of a tiered management fee above GBP 400m will reduce total expenses for investors as HFEL grows.

BiondVax Pharmaceuticals

Phase III for universal flu vaccine starts in 2018

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 15 Jan 2018

Over 2017 BiondVax crystallised its late-stage development plans for lead asset M-001, a potentially universal influenza vaccine. Following its discussions with the regulatory authorities and gaining access to new capital (European Investment Bank and share issues), the company confirmed on 27 December 2017 that it will initiate a pivotal Phase III trial on its own for a universal flu vaccine indication (likely to start in Q318). We have revised our assumptions substantially and increased our valuation to $200m (NIS689m) or $32.4/ADS (NIS2.80/share) from $165m previously.

Clal Biotechnology Industries

Israeli science, worldwide presence

Initiation | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 15 Jan 2018

We are initiating coverage on Clal Biotechnology Industries (CBI), an Israel/Boston-based healthcare investment company with an extensive portfolio incorporating a diverse range of technologies, indications and stages of development. CBI holds direct investments in 10 companies (nine biotech and one medical device company), most importantly MediWound, a NASDAQ-listed wound care company, and Gamida Cell, which is developing a universal bone marrow transplant (BMT) product. Also, BioCanCell and Biokine have programmes in Phase III or Phase III ready. We value the company at NIS918m or NIS5.87 per share.

Rockhopper Exploration

Sea Lion on track for 2018 sanction

Flash note | Oil & Gas | 11 Jan 2018

Sea Lion Phase 1 continues to progress towards project sanction, targeted for end 2018. Focus remains on financing the $1.5bn gross capex required to achieve first oil. A mix of senior debt financing ($800m), vendor financing ($400m) and equity ($300m) was assumed in our last published valuation ranging from a core NAV of 44p/share (Phase 1 risked at 20% COS) to 81p/share (Phase 1 at 50% COS). The recent rise in oil price should increase the JV’s confidence in project risked returns, which we estimate at 30% IRR based on a $70/bbl long-term Brent crude assumption.

Ultra Electronics

Sustainable operating momentum

Flash note | Aerospace & Defence | 11 Jan 2018

Ultra has issued a reassuring post-close trading statement. The company has delivered continued order growth and demonstrated strong cash conversion. The search for a new CEO continues. While the company has identified future areas for investment to deliver long-term growth, Ultra will deliver modest progress in FY18 as it continues to leverage its strong market positions. The statement should help allay investor concerns over profitability that has been weighing on the shares.


Successful fund-raising to fuel growth

QuickView | Travel & Leisure | 11 Jan 2018

Nektan is an innovative B2B mobile gaming platform provider, gaining positive momentum in Europe and the US. However, the business is still early stage, with £13.3m FY17 revenues accompanied by continued EBITDA losses. During 2017, Nektan secured a £2.5m loan from management and raised £1.76m via a placing and subscription of new shares. Depending on performance, we believe further fund-raising is possible. The dilution from the 2017 fund-raising has been mitigated by positive sentiment over subsequent management share purchases, as well as a new investor. In our view, profitable revenue growth and a move to positive EBITDA are necessary for a re-rating.

Circle Property

Increasing forecasts again

Update | Investment Companies | 10 Jan 2018

Circle Property’s recent interim results show asset management initiatives continuing to drive operational progress, delivering strong growth in rental income and cash earnings, and lifting portfolio valuations. Letting progress has continued in H218, including at recently refurbished assets, but significant reversionary potential remains and capital values remain low. We are raising our estimates again but continue to see potential for further upside from faster letting of refurbished assets than we have assumed. Even before that, the shares trade at a hefty 25% discount to FY18e NAV with a yield of more than 3%.