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Making good progress

Update | Financials | 27 Oct 2017

Share’s third quarter update confirmed the positive trends reported in August, with further market share gains and continuing work on its digital transformation providing evidence of the fruits of the investment already made and signalling continued measures to improve the customer experience to underpin further, profit-enhancing growth.

MOD Resources

Sandfire’s bid undervalues MOD

Update | Mining | 22 Jan 2019

MOD Resources has raised A$10m through an oversubscribed institutional placing at a price of A$0.30/share (17p/share), a 36% premium to the closing price on 18 January 2019. The company also intends to raise a further A$5m through a fully underwritten rights issue at A$24/share (13p/share). In addition, the company has received an unsolicited, non-binding, indicative all-share offer from Sandfire Resources (SFR:AU) at a price of A$0.38/share (21p/share). The board of MOD believes the Sandfire offer undervalues the company’s assets.


SEL120 to enter clinical development in 2019

Outlook | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 18 Jan 2019

The data readout from the SEL24 Phase I/II trial in relapsed/refractory AML and the second lead asset, SEL120, moving into clinical development next year are milestones in Selvita’s internal drug R&D. This should accelerate, as the company’s plans to focus on innovation were endorsed by shareholders during the fund-raise earlier in 2018. R&D progress across the earlier-stage pipeline has been reported in several publications in recent months. The Innovations Platform continues to receive support from Selvita’s rapidly growing drug discovery services business. Our valuation is PLN1.24bn or PLN77.6/share.

Basilea Pharmaceutica

Derazantinib interim iCCA data promising

Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 10 Jan 2019

Basilea has reported positive interim results from the derazantinib Phase II registration trial in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA, bile duct cancer). The promising efficacy shown highlights the potential for the product in FGFR-driven solid tumours, an unmet need. Full data are expected to be available once the study has completed (mid-2020). Basilea in-licensed derazantinib from ArQule in April 2018. The asset is a complementary addition to its oncology portfolio and the company now has three diversified, early/mid-stage clinical assets targeting cancer resistance in its portfolio. We anticipate increased investor focus on the oncology strategy at Basilea. We value Basilea at CHF115/share.

SDX Energy

South Disouq first gas and H219 drilling

Update | Oil & gas | 08 Jan 2019

2019 will be an active year for SDX with H119 focused on delivery of first gas at South Disouq, ahead of a return to the drill bit in H219. An eight to nine well programme targets both oil and gas prospectivity in Egypt and appraisal/development locations in Morocco. Drilling activity is expected to be financed through cash flow, undrawn debt ($10m accessible under a reserve-based facility) and an estimated end-FY18 cash position of $15.9m. We expect first gas from South Disouq and increased gas production in Morocco to provide cash flow to support a FY19 capital programme of an estimated US$38m. Our updated risked valuation stands at 99.6p/share (up from 92.7p/share, driven by FX and roll forward of NAV), but we drop our sales and cash flow forecasts for FY19 – a key driver being deferred gas sales in Morocco and a later start-up at South Disouq. Morocco and South Disouq combined make up 67% of our core valuation with contracted sale volumes not levered to the oil price.

Carr's Group

Good start to FY19

Update | Consumer staples | 08 Jan 2019

Carr’s trading update for the first 18 weeks of FY19 indicates that both divisions are performing well. As the group is trading in line with management’s expectations for the full year, we leave our estimates and indicative valuation of 182p/share unchanged.

Egdon Resources

Biscathorpe-2 - a material catalyst for Egdon

Flash note | Oil & gas | 07 Jan 2019

Egdon has announced the spud of the Biscathorpe-2 well in Lincolnshire, a material well that makes up 28% of risked conventional valuation targeting Pmean gross unrisked resource of 14mmbo. Egdon describes Biscathorpe as one of the largest undrilled prospects onshore UK. Our last published conventional asset value for Egdon was 12.7p/share. Valuation of Egdon’s net shale resource (188,000 net acres) remains uncertain but, in our view, has potential to be worth risked c 100p/share based on the current expectation of well cost, type curves and forward gas prices, assuming a supportive political and planning backdrop.

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner

Capital base is boosted

Update | Technology | 07 Jan 2019

In December, SNP completed its capital increase, raising gross proceeds of EUR 18.7m (c EUR 17.6m net). The funds will provide the group with significant financial flexibility and support its international growth strategy, including acquisitions. We have updated our model for the capital increase, which results in EPS coming back by 17.1% in both FY19 and FY20, solely reflecting the dilution impact from the new shares. Following the Q3 results, which showed a strong recovery in profits, we noted that there were signs that the group’s important S/4HANA transformation business had been picking up as SNP had won several small S/4HANA migrations. While the shares look punchy on c 27x our FY19e earnings, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.

Fidelity Special Values

Increasingly positive view on UK market outlook

Initiation | Investment Companies | 07 Jan 2019

Fidelity Special Values (FSV) aims to achieve long-term capital growth from a special situations portfolio of primarily UK equities. The manager has a contrarian approach, looking for unloved stocks and opportunities created by share price volatility and market uncertainty. Although market volatility has been unhelpful to shorter-term performance, FSV's NAV total return has outperformed its benchmark FTSE All-Share index over five and 10 years. While seeing broadly negative sentiment towards UK equities, FSV's manager is increasingly positive on the UK stock market outlook, irrespective of the outcome of Brexit negotiations, and has been adding to portfolio holdings by increasing FSV's net gearing.


Retaining lefitolimod’s value

Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 04 Jan 2019

Mologen has announced that it has terminated negotiations with Oncologie and will retain rights to lefitolimod. With the lefitolimod IMPALA Phase III readout now expected in H219, focus will likely shift to securing a partner for lefitolimod once data are available from this pivotal trial. We have updated our valuation to reflect the termination of Oncologie negotiations. We now forecast that lefitolimod will be out-licensed post the IMPALA trial and assume similar deal terms to those Oncologie presented. We value Mologen at EUR 169m (EUR 18.2/share).


ASX listing expected as funding is confirmed

Update | Oil & gas | 04 Jan 2019

2018 activity was slower than planned for Renergen as its expected funding of the Virginia LNG/helium project in South Africa was delayed due to a long period of economic and political volatility. However, with a recently completed rights issue that unlocks a pre-agreed debt facility, Renergen can now start to order key equipment. The macro environment is more favourable, with helium prices potentially higher after the cessation of public auctions of the US strategic helium reserve. Longer term, Renergen is looking to the Australian markets for additional share liquidity, with an Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) dual listing planned for 2019.


Promising dendritic cell data in AML

Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 04 Jan 2019

Medigene has reported top-line interim data from its Phase I/II clinical trial testing its dendritic cell (DC) vaccine in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients (n=20) who were in complete remission. After a 12-month treatment period, overall survival was 89% (n=18/20) and progression-free survival was 60% (n=12/20). These early data are comparable to those of patients treated with allogeneic stem cell transplants. However, relapses are common in AML and long-term data are needed to determine the sustainability of the responses. We have increased our probability of success for the DC vaccine trial to 30% from 25% previously, in addition to rolling forward our model and updating for FX. We now value Medigene at EUR 470m (EUR 19.16/share) vs EUR 457m (EUR 18.59/share) previously.