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Well-positioned going into H2

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 20 Dec 2018

Rubicon’s H1 performance contained typical seasonal trading features ahead of the more important H2 trading period and our earnings estimates are unchanged. We are encouraged to see a number of positive commercial steps being taken in each of the main countries, which will support future aspirations. Our earnings estimates are unchanged as is our previous DCF valuation analysis which indicated a NZ$0.74 per share valuation.


Pure play, clear focus

Initiation | Construction & Building Materials | 10 Sep 2018

The simplified corporate structure presents investors in Rubicon (RBC) with a pure-play, advanced forestry genetics business with leading positions in large international markets for its seedlings. The conversion of these positions into profitable growth through customer migration to more advanced seedlings is the likely driver of further share price outperformance in our view. Our own DCF analysis – implicitly more conservative than the company’s – yields a NZ$0.74 per share valuation.


Termination of coverage

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 22 Dec 2016

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Rubicon (RBC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.


Value overlooked

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 09 Apr 2015

Our analysis suggests that the market is undervaluing Rubicon's two investments individually and, therefore, the company itself. Tenon's ongoing profit recovery and increased penetration of advanced genetics seedlings and a potential financing/liquidity event for ArborGen are likely to be the key drivers of a higher Rubicon share price, in our view. We see a fundamental valuation range of between NZ$0.64 and NZ$1.06 per share.


Focusing on value creation

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 12 Mar 2014

Tenon and ArborGen have clear strategies to deliver value to shareholders and Rubicon stands to benefit, through independent market pricing and potential cash receipts. In our view, these discrete events will highlight anomalies between Rubicon's current valuation and our NZ$0.84-0.87 fair value range o twice the current share price o and we would expect the share price to respond positively.


Positive funding step

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 12 Feb 2014

A NZ$12m (US$10m) fresh equity injection both endorses Rubicon's value creation strategy and reinforces the company's interest in ArborGen in our view. Our fundamental sum-of-the-parts valuation becomes NZ$0.83-0.86. We look for confirmation of trading progress at both Tenon and ArborGen in forthcoming H1 results to continue the forward share price momentum.


Taking steps to create value

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 09 Jan 2014

There is a clear agenda to raise the profiles and valuations of investee companies Tenon and ArborGen. Both companies are making tangible operational and financial progress and we expect this to become more apparent during 2014. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation for Rubicon, based on independent appraisals of these two companies, suggests upside towards a NZ$0.86-0.90 range.


Strong progress from both Tenon and ArborGen

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 17 Sep 2013

FY13 saw Tenon and ArborGen improve their financial performance and put in place banking facilities for their next growth phases. These results reinforce our view that Rubicon's (RBC) share price understates the underlying value of its investments o worth c NZ$0.90 per share o and we expect to see this discount narrow over time.



Sector report: | Technology | 19 Jun 2013



Lord of the rings

Outlook | Construction & Building Materials | 12 Jun 2013

Rubicon's investments in Tenon (an NZ-listed, US-focused appearance wood product distributor) and ArborGen (an international developer and supplier of advanced forestry seedlings) offer strong growth profiles and leading positions in their respective markets. Both will benefit from the US housing upturn in the near term. We see upside for Rubicon to NZ$0.84 per share (two-thirds or NZ$0.57 in existing markets, one-third from new ones).

Allocate Software

Crossing the Rubicon?

Flash note | Technology | 03 Jun 2010

Allocate’s new financial year has started on a positive note with the announcement that it has won a major e-Rostering contract for the New South Wales public health system. The total deal value is estimated to be A$10m over its lifetime, making it one of Allocate’s largest ever. It is also the company’s first major win outside of the UK, adding credibility to management’s ambition of expanding overseas.