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Strong H1 but more balanced year is expected

Update | Technology | 20 Sep 2018

SCISYS has reported a strong H1 with professional fees jumping 24%. However, this was off a weak H117 and some business was brought forward from H2. Consequently, we are forecasting a more balanced H1/H2 in FY18. We have increased our FY18 revenues by GBP 3.0m to reflect this balancing, but we have maintained our profit forecasts. All divisions posted record revenues, the order book remains robust at close to GBP 100m and net debt continues to decline. Management’s goal of GBP 60m in revenues and double-digit margins within the next few years looks increasingly conservative and we believe the stock is solid on c 14.6x our FY19e EPS.


SaaS switch depresses margins

Update | Technology | 28 Aug 2018

FY18 revenues grew by 13.1% at constant currencies (guidance was 10–15%), to CHF87.1m (we forecast CHF88.1m). EBITDA eased by 4.2% to CHF7.0m (we forecast CHF11.8m), mainly driven by the switch to SaaS. We have updated our forecasts for the trading news along with the acquisition of 80% of Elaxy Business Solution & Services (Elaxy BS&S) that was announced early last month. We have cut our EPS forecasts by 50% in FY18, 46% in FY19 and by 31% in FY20, with the trading news outweighing the earnings enhancement from Elaxy BS&S. The stable, cash-generative nature of Elaxy BS&S balances the higher-risk, stronger growth profile of Innofis, which was acquired at the beginning of 2018.

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner

Attractive business drivers are sustained

Update | Technology | 23 Aug 2018

While SAP S/4HANA transformation project deferrals impacted on H1 performance, SNP remains confident that there will be a recovery in H2 and beyond. SAP, the Walldorf-based software giant, has been successfully selling its S/4HANA business suite, but we understand these sales are predominantly for small customers and many large enterprises have been deferring data transformations to S/4HANA. However, SNP remains highly confident that the wave of S/4HANA transformations is building up and believes it is the best-placed participant to deliver on this wave of projects with its sophisticated software-based approach using the CrystalBridge platform. We have cut our forecasts towards the top of the reduced guidance range. While the shares look punchy on c 26x our FY19e earnings, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.

StatPro Group

Outlook is maintained

Update | Technology | 07 Aug 2018

The group’s annualised recurring revenue (ARR) was flat due to higher than normal churn. However, we believe this slowdown is temporary as StatPro is looking increasingly well positioned to benefit from the outsourcing shift in the global asset management industry. StatPro is the only SaaS provider of performance, attribution and risk solutions and it also offers APIs along with full managed services. We have increased our interest forecasts while also reducing tax, which results in EPS forecasts remaining unchanged. Given the ongoing active M&A backdrop in financial software and the scope for revenue acceleration and margin expansion, we continue to see strong upside potential in the shares.

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner

Revenue guidance is cut by 9.8% at mid-points

Update | Technology | 31 Jul 2018

SNP’s preliminary H118 results indicate that the strongly anticipated tsunami of SAP S/4HANA transformations has continued to shift out as enterprises await greater clarity on the technological transition to the new cloud platform. After the Q1 results in May we reported that there had been several S/4HANA project delays, as such transformations are highly complex to implement. We understand this trend has continued. Nevertheless, SNP remains extremely confident that the tsunami is just a matter of time. In preparation, SNP has established new partnership with IBM Services incorporating a novel ‘Bluefield’ approach to target the potentially substantial S/4HANA market. We have removed our forecasts and will review them after the full Q2/H1 results on Thursday.

FinTech Group

Attractively positioned for growth

Update | Technology | 23 Jul 2018

FinTech Group’s (FTG) brokerage business benefited from the jump in volatility in Q1. Volatility has since abated, but the business stands to benefit from a new ETP partnership with Goldman Sachs announced in March. Meanwhile, FTG remains well positioned to benefit from a strengthening German economy and the eventual rise in interest rates. Despite being the fastest-growing major broking business in Europe, the shares continue to trade at a discount to the brokerage sector.

StatPro Group

Broadening managed-services capabilities for risk

Update | Technology | 05 Jul 2018

StatPro has acquired the regulatory risk services bureau from ODDO BHF for an undisclosed sum. The acquisition significantly broadens the group’s managed-services capabilities in risk and creates cross-selling opportunities. Our EPS rises by 3% in FY18 and FY19; we believe the deal demonstrates how StatPro can add value for shareholders through bolt-on acquisitions. Given the busy M&A backdrop in financial software and the significant valuation disparity between StatPro and its US-listed financial software peers, we continue to see strong upside potential in the shares.


An “impressive start” to 2018

Update | Technology | 29 Jun 2018

SCISYS has released an upbeat AGM trading update, noting that progress has been made across all its four divisions. The order book has reached £100m, up from £91.3m at end-FY17, boosted in particular by the renewal of M&B's BBC support contract. Cash flow was strong, with net debt declining by £4m over the first five months of the year, in what is typically a subdued period for cash generation. We have increased our FY18 operating cash flow forecast, while conservatively maintaining our other forecasts. Management's goal to achieve £60m in revenues and double-digit margins within three to five years looks increasingly conservative, and we believe the stock looks attractive on c 12.6x our FY19e EPS.

artec technologies

Positioning for growth

Update | Technology | 06 Jun 2018

artec spent the 2016/17 period highly focused on modernising its software platform and, as a consequence, revenues dipped by 41% in FY17. However, in recent months, the company has won three prestigious new contracts with high-profile customers in Germany. These contracts provide a significant endorsement of the new platform, and the artec carried out a 10% capital increase to provide working capital to help deliver these contracts. If management can successfully scale the business, we believe there is significant upside in the shares.


In-line trading, focused on investing in technology

Update | Technology | 04 Jun 2018

In a brief AGM update, Brady said that trading has been in line. Following a period of significant change, with new people hired and the business having been streamlined, the primary focus has shifted to re-engineering the software. The initial outcome of this was shown with the launch of the group's first FAST START implementation offering in May. We will review our forecasts following tomorrow's capital markets day. If Brady can successfully transition to the cloud, there is a lot to go for as E/CTRM is an attractive growth industry and Brady has a high-quality customer base.

StatPro Group

On target

Update | Technology | 24 May 2018

In a short trading update, StatPro has said that trading is in line with expectations. The group recently signed a major cloud conversion contract with a top 10 global fund administrator. Such deals require significant commitment from the client and, once live, have the potential to be scaled up if the client takes additional licences to extend to its own client base. Given the ongoing busy M&A backdrop in financial software and the significant valuation disparity between StatPro and its US-listed financial software peers, we continue to see strong upside potential in the shares.


EBITDA margins lift to 10.6% as acquisitions drive growth

Update | Technology | 23 May 2018

DATAGROUP performed in line with expectations in H1, with revenue growing by 24%, including 1.5% organic growth, or 5–6% when adjusting for discontinued activities from acquisitions. Management conservatively maintained revenue guidance, despite 50% of this already being generated in H1, with ALMATO only contributing for one month in the period. While the rating looks fairly priced at c 10x EBITDA, DATAGROUP offers an excellent track record, high recurring revenues, a clear focus on the large German Mittelstand sector and an increasing number of key differentiators following the acquisitions of ikb Data and ALMATO.