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PPHE Hotel Group

Steady as she goes

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 05 Feb 2019

PPHE has hit the spot yet again with Q4 rate-led RevPAR growth of c 8% (our estimate), which is a marked acceleration on the previous nine months. Driven by a strong holiday season in London, the company’s major profit source, and by encouraging early returns on its key Victoria Amsterdam renovations, this is impressive, given a demanding comparative. On course to meet management’s 2018 expectations (results due c 28 February), PPHE looks also to be coping with Brexit uncertainty (Q119 bookings are good according to management), while longer-term growth reflects a GBP 190m investment programme with key projects in the Netherlands and London well in hand. Expansion remains on the cards, even if management is reluctant to pay up, viz the recent London Grange deal (1,300 rooms) at c GBP 750,000 per key.

PPHE Hotel Group

Keeping busy

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 02 Nov 2018

Q318 has seen PPHE deliver (eg like-for-like RevPAR +6%) against a strong comparative. London, the company's largest profit source, shared in a weather-led leisure market pick-up, while the Netherlands saw an early benefit from newly completed renovation at its flagship Victoria Amsterdam. Croatia, in its busiest period, topped a record 2017 despite the heatwave in northern Europe depressing demand. With current-year expectations unchanged ahead of key Q4 trading, longer-term growth is being driven by a GBP 190m investment programme with key projects in the Netherlands and London well in hand. Expansion also remains on the cards, even if management is justifiably reluctant to pay up.

PPHE Hotel Group

Asset value growth to the fore

Update | Travel & Leisure | 04 Oct 2018

PPHE continues to please, with resilient H1 operating results complemented by first-time disclosure of EPRA reporting, which highlights its real estate business with EPRA NAV of £24.21 at June 2018, significantly ahead of the current share price. A fine record of value creation (21% CAGR in NAV over the seven years to end-2017, as newly presented) should underpin the company's ability to leverage on its assets, in addition to reinvestment potential from £152m excess cash. H1 saw maintained like-for-like EBITDA against a “very strong” comparative in London, PPHE's major market, and renovations in the Netherlands. Encouraging trading in its seasonally stronger H2 supports guidance that 2018 expectations are unchanged. The interim dividend is raised by 45%.

PPHE Hotel Group

Creating value

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 29 Jun 2018

PPHE has accompanied news of its proposed transfer to a premium listing with a significant increase in market valuations of its properties (up c GBP 140m since last reported). This accentuates already substantial hidden reserves, implying fair value c GBP 24/share. Value creation apart, this should boost its ability to leverage on its assets for future projects. Even given current share price strength (up almost a third since March), PPHE’s rating reflects neither this asset backing nor excess liquidity (c GBP 290m cash equivalents at end 2017), which highlights its reinvestment potential.

PPHE Hotel Group

Busy on all fronts

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 04 May 2018

Despite further slowdown in London, its major market, the strength and diversity of PPHE’s portfolio has ensured a ‘solid’ Q118 and confidence that 2018 expectations can be met. Although Q1 regional performance is not disclosed, overall 1% RevPAR gain may reflect a marginal dip in the capital, as was the case for the market, which is creditable given a demanding comparative. Growth in Croatia and Germany was encouraging, if offset by renovation in the Netherlands. Current projects are well in hand, while management looks to exploit flexibility after Waterloo’s sale and leaseback and Arena’s fund-raising. PPHE’s rating underestimates its excess liquidity (GBP 200m+ cash post-Hoxton purchase) and asset backing (fair value c GBP 20/share).

PPHE Hotel Group

Executive interview - PPHE Hotel Group

Edison TV: | Travel & Leisure | 16 Apr 2018

PPHE Hotel Group has developed a collection of popular, full-service, four-star, deluxe and lifestyle hotels (39 properties; over 9,000 rooms) with a good geographic spread and guest mix. With a focus on European cities (gateway and regional), there is particular representation in the important lodging markets of London, Amsterdam and Berlin, where the hotels are predominantly owned and operated under the Park Plaza brand. Consolidation of resort activities in Croatia in 2016 brought a re-shaping in terms of business and seasonality. Current development projects include two new art’otels in London. PPHE was floated on AIM in 2007 and moved to the Official List of the London Stock Exchange in 2011.

PPHE Hotel Group

Fraught with opportunity

Update | Travel & Leisure | 12 Mar 2018

PPHE has delivered a strong set of results for 2017. The 14% EBITDA gain was ahead of our expectations, largely owing to core resilience in London, the company's major profit source, despite a demanding H2 comparative and notable market slowdown. The new properties (Waterloo and Park Royal) also surprised. While 2018 is transitional as management reviews deployment of its greatly enhanced flexibility (c GBP 290m cash equivalents at end-2017), there should still be good progress thanks to recent openings and current momentum. Indeed, our new 2019 forecasts may prove cautious, given such investment potential. PPHE’s modest rating reflects neither this excess liquidity nor its asset backing (fair value c GBP 20/share).

PPHE Hotel Group

On track

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 01 Feb 2018

PPHE continues to deliver with a firm end to the year reinforcing confidence that expectations for 2017 will be met (results due in late February). Like-for-like RevPAR growth of c 4% (our estimate) in Q4 is impressive in the teeth of pronounced market slowdown in London, while double-digit yield gain in the first nine months was flattered by weak comparatives and currency. Notwithstanding short-term caution about renovations and costs, PPHE is admirably placed to exploit its very considerable financial flexibility. Its modest rating recognises neither its excess liquidity (likely GBP 200m+ cash post-Hoxton acquisition) nor its asset backing.

PPHE Hotel Group

Building on success

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 24 Jan 2018

Today’s proposal to acquire full ownership of the land for its Hoxton scheme is welcome evidence that PPHE’s continued growth is very much in hand. The company’s strong development record, sustained by recent major openings in London, coupled with the established strength of its reach in the capital, reinforce confidence in this exciting and potentially lucrative project. Moreover, it can only benefit from the introduction to London of lifestyle “art’otel” by PPHE at high-profile Battersea Power Station. Construction is set to begin in Q2.

PPHE Hotel Group

Making the most of it

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 06 Nov 2017

PPHE has again hit the spot with a “strong” Q3 (like-for-like RevPAR +9%, albeit currency-boosted), driven by Croatia and London. This is all the more encouraging as it is entirely rate-led, the peak trading period of Arena and proof of resilience in the capital despite a market slowdown. There is further reassurance in management’s confidence about Q4, given its significance and a demanding comparative. Development continues apace with openings and renovations on track and the company’s reassertion of its enhanced financial flexibility after the recent Waterloo sale.

PPHE Hotel Group

Going places

Update | Travel & Leisure | 20 Sep 2017

PPHE has arguably trumped its strong H117 results by highlighting its “unprecedented financial position,” which provides exciting scope for management with an enviable development record. Excess liquidity is substantial (we estimate GBP 250+m cash after Waterloo sale backed by a valuation surplus) and its deployment is actively under review. Meanwhile impressive +23% H117 EBITDA despite headwinds and a positive outlook have led us to raise forecasts, if marginally. Heartland London recovered well, with key openings soon making their mark. A meagre rating belies PPHE’s proven profit delivery and asset backing (fair value c GBP 18/share).

PPHE Hotel Group

Waterloo sunset

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 04 Jul 2017

The proposed sale and leaseback of Park Plaza Waterloo, the largest London hotel opening in 2017, is impressive testimony to the success of the PPHE business model. Its endorsement as developer and asset owner is evident not only in an effective c 100% return in just four years but in its reinforcement of 2016 market valuations of other key assets. Moreover, a long-term lease on attractive terms (low yield of 3.5%) retains interest in this positive complement to its unmatched South Bank presence (c 2,500 rooms). While our forecasts are unchanged, we highlight the release of c GBP 80m for reinvestment and an additional c 300p/share (GBP 126m), of which c 85p realised, to the company’s latest ‘fair value’ adjustment of c 1,000p/share to the end December 2016 NAV of 782p/share.