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JDC Group

Muted Q417 does not spoil FY18 outlook

Update | Financials | 23 Mar 2018

JDC Group has been successful in implementing its fintech strategy so far and continues to acquire new insurance portfolios, as illustrated by the recent deals with Albatros and Artus Gruppe. This is confirmed by JDC’s preliminary FY17 numbers, with revenues and adjusted EBITDA improving by 7.6% and 62.5% y-o-y, respectively. However, even adjusted for one-off items, FY17 EBITDA was below management target (EUR 3.9m vs EUR 5-6m), while revenues (EUR 84.5m) missed guidance (EUR 85-95m) by a small margin. Despite a weaker Q417, management remains confident in strong growth in 2018 driven by new business acquired in 2017. JDC’s shares are trading at a 2018 P/E ratio of 55.3x, c 192% ahead of the peer group.


IMMray PanCan-d approaches the market

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 22 Mar 2018

Immunovia is preparing to market its IMMray PanCan-d for self-pay patients at high risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) in Q418, after preparatory activities were pushed back slightly from mid-2017 to 2018. To achieve reimbursement, a prospective trial in this population is being run and if positive, the test could be reimbursed in 2020. Immunovia is pursuing other groups ie patients with new-onset T2 diabetes aged 50+ and those with early gastric symptoms. Our revised valuation is SEK3.6bn as we now include early gastric symptoms. Autoimmune diseases represent upside.

Reworld Media

Driving branding performance

Outlook | Media | 20 Mar 2018

Reworld Media is delivering the financial returns on its strategy of digital transformation of well-established media brands, supplemented with the ad tech expertise of Tradedoubler (30% owned). FY17 figures show good revenue and margin progress from the media brands, with Tradedoubler starting to recover post repositioning and restructuring. The group also has a strengthening balance sheet. Our updated model suggests a strong uplift in adjusted PBT in FY18 driven by the growing digital element in Branding and the continuing turnaround at Tradedoubler. The rating is yet to reflect the improving quality of earnings or the scale of the opportunity.

Location Sciences

The power of data

Outlook | Media | 19 Mar 2018

Proxama (to be renamed Location Sciences on 21 March) is a mobile location data intelligence business that analyses consumer behaviour using its proprietary location technology. Over the past few months a new management team effected a complete restructuring of the business positioning the company at the forefront of this rapidly evolving part of the wider £5.4bn UK digital media sector. The company has built a large and growing footprint in terms of consumer reach and monetises its data products in sectors including retail, city and transport planning and financial services as well as media. As at year end 2017, the Location Sciences' UK consumer base exceeded 7.3m and its data lake had amassed 14bn data points. These market leading figures, combined with the company suite of data products, in our view positions Location Sciences as a leading UK player in this high growth sector.

Banca Sistema

FY17 result and a closer look at factoring income

Outlook | Financials | 16 Mar 2018

Banca Sistema (BST) reported moderate earnings growth for FY17 with factoring income tempered by mix and price effects while SME loan interest contracted as the book is run off. Positives included strong growth in factoring turnover and pension and salary backed lending with benefits to flow through in FY18 and beyond. Capital ratios indicate good headroom for further growth. The shares are cautiously rated relative to peers and publication of the business plan expected in April is a potential positive catalyst.

Is Private Equity

Valuation yet to reflect improving conditions

Outlook | Investment Companies | 16 Mar 2018

The overall valuation of Is Private Equity’s (ISGSY) private equity investments remained resilient in 2017, with gross asset exposure to these investments increasing (and liquid assets reduced) as ISGSY invested further, for larger stakes in existing assets. With economic recovery taking hold, investee companies saw total revenue growth of c 35% in 2017, and the increased investment may prove to be well timed, especially if inflation and interest rates decline as the Central Bank expects. A pick-up in M&A activity may also provide additional opportunity for capital recycling from mature assets into new opportunities. The significant 52% discount to NAV provides scope for a re-rating.


Pipeline and strategic execution drives prospects

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 15 Mar 2018

Nuevolution’s 2017 was defined by internal progress of the RORγt inhibitor and BET-BD1 programmes (expected to be clinically ready in 2019). In 2018 we anticipate value will be driven by new and existing partners, for example we expect Almirall to initiate a RORγt inhibitor Phase I trial in late 2018, making it the first Nuevolution product candidate to enter the clinic. In addition to existing collaborations, a new partnership is anticipated by Nuevolution in the next three to nine months. If achieved, revenue from these events will aid Nuevolution’s strategy of transitioning into a clinical stage biotech. We value Nuevolution at SEK21.0/share or SEK901m from SEK21.4/share (SEK917m) previously.

Pointer Telocation

Driven by technology

Outlook | Technology | 14 Mar 2018

Pointer Telocation (PNTR) has, to a significant extent, transformed itself into a proprietary technology company over the last 18 months, resulting in major contract wins in driver behaviour systems (DBS), connected car (CC) and sensor-based IoT monitoring systems. The group’s ability to cross-sell new services to its extensive customer base as well as enter new markets and geographies, combined with high operating leverage, gives it above-average earnings growth potential. We now value PNTR at parity with the telematics sector, giving rise to a 6% increase in valuation to $20.8 (NIS71.8) per share.


Value discovery

Outlook | Food & Drink | 14 Mar 2018

Five years into its strategy, there is plenty for Greggs to do. Its shops, which all now look and work like value food-on-the-go outlets, must spread out from their high street origins. Its manufacturing bases are being transformed, at substantial projected returns. But most importantly, its wide-ranging food offer will take time to be known by non-customers, we believe. Their gradual buy-in should provide a tailwind to Greggs’ mission to gain share.

SLI Systems

Strong H1 lays foundations for transition

Outlook | Technology | 13 Mar 2018

SLI Systems has substantially outperformed our expectations, delivering its maiden H1 period of profitability, driven by outstanding net revenue retention and substantial cost savings. The company’s imminent shift to a more indirect business model is likely to compress near-term margins and success is crucial to longer-term prospects. Nevertheless, the depressed share price does not demand steep growth assumptions for investors to see a return.

Raven Russia

Strong results with improving outlook

Update | Property | 12 Mar 2018

The Russian economy returned to growth in 2017 and the FX market was relatively calm, creating the conditions for a significant improvement in the warehouse market supply-demand balance, with rents stabilising. Against this backdrop, Raven produced strong headline earnings, including land sale gains, and a solid underlying performance, including a first benefit from 2017 accretive acquisitions. Although not reflected in our forecast, further acquisitions are likely, funded by existing cash resources, with the potential to more than offset rent reversion to market levels and return the company to growth.

Ultra Electronics

Termination of Sparton acquisition process

Update | Aerospace & Defence | 08 Mar 2018

FY17 results were in line with the guidance reset by management in Q417, with cash performance ahead of expectations. The outlook for FY18 has some acceleration in organic sales growth, tougher FX assumptions, higher investment levels and the adoption of new accountings standards. Combined, this trims our revenues and margins estimates modestly. The proposed merger with Sparton Corporation has been terminated following the outcome of the anti-trust review in the US. While not ideal, US demand for sonobuoys remains strong and trading through the existing JV should continue. Return of cash to shareholders through a buyback reimburses the funds raised last year to fund the purchase. Growth is accelerating modestly, and our fair value stands at 1,816p.