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Mologen

Global lefitolimod partnership close to completion

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 21 Sep 2018

Mologen announced that it has signed term sheets for a global partnership with Oncologie for its lead asset, lefitolimod. The deal is expected to complete in Q119, and in the near term Mologen expects to receive EUR 23m from the agreement in a combination of R&D funding, cash payment and bond issues. Sensitivity remains around Oncologie who are an early stage biotech with $16m in seed funding. Mologen announced a capital raise in which it could receive gross proceeds of EUR 18m. Focus remains on data from the Phase III IMPALA trial in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), expected in 2020. We value Mologen at EUR 188m (EUR 16.6/share).

Orexo

Orexo wins patent litigation appeal

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Sep 2018

Orexo’s appeal of the US District Court’s invalidation of the ‘330 patent, which had been anticipated for some months, has been successful. Zubsolv is Orexo’s largest and fastest-growing product – we anticipate sales of c SEK620m and over 25% growth in FY18. The initial invalidity of the ‘330 patent had weighed on the shares since 2014 and this overhang has now been removed. The exclusivity of the Zubsolv patents runs until 2019 and 2032. We have updated our valuation ahead of the Q318 results.

Game Digital

Part of the retail answer

Outlook | Consumer Support Services | 12 Sep 2018

Even as Game Digital (GMD) faces short-term trading pressure, its developing BELONG gaming arena concept is arguably part of the answer of what to do with the UK’s high streets and shopping centres. The first BELONG sites under the February 2018 agreement with Sports Direct are now opening. With GMD’s share price still less than net cash of 32p, neither the existing business, which currently contributes GBP 10m of EBITDA, nor BELONG which we value at 23p, are attributed any value by the market. Our total valuation is 75p.

GCP Student Living

Strong FY18 progress and positive outlook

Update | Financials | 12 Sep 2018

GCP Student Living (DIGS) saw strong growth in FY18 rental income, driven by an increasing number of operational beds, continuing full occupancy and good levels of rental growth. Growing dividends should be fully covered once current development projects are completed and let. Capital values also grew, with investor interest in the asset class remaining strong, contributing to 11.5% NAV total return for the FY18 year. The company continues to find attractive investment opportunities, maintaining its selective approach to investment, both by location and asset quality, and is seeking to raise up to GBP 55m in a share pacing.

MPC Capital

Expansion of container ship fleet

Update | Financials | 10 Sep 2018

Although MPC’s legacy retail portfolio is still weighing on its results, the company is making steady progress in shifting its business towards institutional, higher-margin clients (representing 52% of assets under management (AUM) at end June 2018). We also appreciate MPC’s expansion of the container ship fleet given this shipping segment now enjoys the most favourable demand/supply outlook. The company’s shares are trading at a c 30–40% discount to peers.

John Laing Group

Project investment delivers growth

Outlook | Financials | 10 Sep 2018

Continuity of strategy and personnel has enabled John Laing Group (JLG) to capitalise on the opportunities in the international market for infrastructure investment and establish an impressive track record of growth. With the demand for infrastructure projects remaining strong, we believe JLG is well placed financially, operationally and competitively to deliver attractive returns to shareholders.

Max 21

Appetite for more growth

Update | Technology | 06 Sep 2018

Max 21 continues its successful turnaround story, with a solid increase in H118 sales related to Binect family products and LinOTP (even if somewhat behind management expectations). Encouraged by the top-line growth and recently introduced cost efficiencies, management has reaffirmed its FY18 revenue guidance at EUR 7m (implying a 27% y-o-y growth) and is now expecting an EBITDA loss no greater than EUR 1.5m (vs EUR 2.5m previously). The reduced cash burn and business outlook for H218 will eliminate the need for a new share issue, according to the company.

Severfield

Good, balanced UK trading, India orders growing

Update | General Industrials | 05 Sep 2018

Severfield’s (SFR’s) AGM statement retained management’s existing guidance for FY19. The year has started well in the UK – a more even profit profile is anticipated overall – and confidence in the Indian JV’s outlook is supporting plans for further investment. Overall, it is a very solid update with a consistent message to investors. The recent ex-dividend share price move has increased the attraction of earnings-based valuation multiples.

Raven Property Group

Good underlying progress

Outlook | Property | 03 Sep 2018

Raven Property Group (Raven) made good underlying progress in H118 against the backdrop of a modestly growing Russian economy and improving supply-demand conditions in the warehouse sector. Occupancy and operating income were up, although headline results are affected by unrealised FX movements. Not reflected in our forecasts, further acquisitions are likely, funded by a strong cash position (almost $200m), with the potential to more than offset rent reversion to market levels and return the company to growth.

Share

Scaling up

Outlook | Financials | 03 Sep 2018

Share’s first half results were marked by higher revenues and costs than expected, while assets under administration have continued to grow and the digital transformation programme has progressed further both behind the scenes and in the client interface. Share’s credibility as a partner or purchaser of books of business is underlined by agreements to three further transactions that are set to scale the business significantly. This in turn should help underpin the geared improvement in profits required to drive the value of the business.

Immutep

LAG-3 progress in-house and via partners

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Aug 2018

Immutep has reported encouraging progress from its in-house and partnered programs over the past few months. Interim data from the TACTI-mel combo study included a 61% response rate from the start of the Keytruda monotherapy screening period among subjects who went on to receive eftilagimod alpha (efti or IMP321) combo therapy. Partners GSK and Novartis are progressing their in-licensed LAG-3 programs into Phase II or proof of concept studies, which increases the likelihood that these programs will return significant value to Immutep. Our valuation has increased to $387m or $12.80/ADR (from $333m or $10.41/ADR).

Immutep

LAG-3 progress in-house and via partners

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Aug 2018

Immutep has reported encouraging progress from its in-house and partnered programmes over the past few months. Interim data from the TACTI-mel combo study included a 61% response rate from the start of the Keytruda monotherapy screening period among subjects who went on to receive eftilagimod alpha (efti or IMP321) combo therapy. Partners GSK and Novartis are progressing their in-licensed LAG-3 programmes into Phase II or proof of concept studies, which increases the likelihood that these programmes will return significant value to Immutep. Our valuation has increased to A$510m or A$0.17/share (from A$439m or A$0.14/share).