mpc

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MPC Capital

Repositioned for real asset growth

Initiation | Financials | 31 May 2017

An extensive restructuring programme, completed in 2015, has repositioned MPC as an asset and investment manager for real assets, targeting selected niche strategies in the shipping, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, for institutional clients. The new model is asset light and driven by recurring revenue streams across the investment lifecycle. New business margins are substantially higher and management sees scope to considerably grow AUM off a scalable platform.

MPC Capital

Investing in business development

Update | Financials | 26 Feb 2018

MPC Capital met its 2017 financial performance targets. The share price has suffered in the recent shake-out. P/NAV has slipped to a relatively undemanding 1.83x. The current phase of investment in business development will only begin to bear fruit fully next year and the possibility of a capital increase to support this strategy may weigh on the share price.

MPC Capital

Steady progress

Update | Financials | 11 Sep 2017

The absence of major transaction contributions to first-half profits and management’s reiterated guidance for progress in the full year throws the burden on results in the second half, notably the incidence of large transactions. Firm news on the dividend front may also have an impact on price performance. The process of shifting to higher quality AUM continues. The shares trade at 1.9x NAV.

Mesoblast

Funding to deliver key data in 2017

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 05 Apr 2017

Mesoblast has raised US$40m (gross) through a placement of 26.25m shares at A$2.00/share. The cash enables continued funding of the key MPC-150-IM Phase III heart failure (HF) study where an interim futility analysis is underway. We expect Q4 data from the Phase III in paediatric graft vs host disease (GvHD); Mallinckrodt has an option on partnering GvHD. Other projects can also be funded. Also in H2, top-line data from the NIH-funded Phase IIb study in end-stage HF with an LVAD may be reported. The indicative value has been increased to A$1.72bn from A$1.67bn to reflect reduced potential FY18 cash needs. The indicative value per share drops to A$4.02 from A$4.16 due to the increased dilution.

Mesoblast

Teva returns rights to cardiovascular programme

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 08 Jul 2016

Teva has relinquished all rights to cardiovascular applications of Mesoblast's mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) technology, as it focuses on its core CNS and respiratory interests. Mesoblast will seek a new partner with a cardiovascular focus at the appropriate time. It has entered an A$120m (~US$90m) equity finance facility with Kentgrove Capital to fund the ongoing Phase III CHF trial and a 600-patient confirmatory trial (estimated cost ~US$90m), and has brought forward the interim futility analysis to Q117. We have revised our development timelines and lower our valuation to A$1.8bn from A$2.8bn (A$4.67 from A$7.36 per share).

Mesoblast

Impressive signs of efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 Feb 2016

Mesoblast has reported impressive efficacy data from the first cohort of the Phase II trial of its mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ahead of full results due in Q316. Key catalysts next quarter will be the first interim analysis from the pivotal MPC-150-IM heart failure trial, together with an update to trial timelines following the halving of the trial to 600 patients. The launch of Temcell in Japan for graft vs host disease this quarter will bring a royalty stream from partner JCR Pharmaceuticals. We lift our valuation to A$7.36 per share (from A$7.20).

Mesoblast

Headway on positive developments

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 23 Jul 2015

Mesoblast is steadily advancing its pipeline, presenting positive Phase II data at the American Diabetes Association in June for MPC-300-IV in moderate-to-severe diabetic nephropathy. The company is seeking an accelerated regulatory path on findings in a large patient population with little alternative for treatment. The recent agreement with Celgene, which entailed a net A$58.5m equity purchase in return for first right of refusal on products in certain disease areas, provides Mesoblast with a capital injection and potential development/commercialisation partner. Meanwhile, an imminent regulatory decision in Japan for MSC-100-IV in acute graft vs host disease (aGvHD) could prove a significant share price catalyst. If approved, MSC-100-IV would be Mesoblast's first product to market.

Mesoblast

Late stage springing forward

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Mar 2015

Mesoblast's late-stage product pipeline is burgeoning. We expect a regulatory decision for its first product, MSC-100-IV in acute graft vs host disease (aGvHD) in Japan in mid-2015 following its filing last October, which would serve as critical confirmation of the company's proprietary mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) technology. Two further products, MPC-150 in CHF and MPC-100-IV have entered pivotal Phase III trials over the past year. We increase our valuation of the company to A$3.41bn from A$3.16bn or A$10.51 per basic share from A$9.51 per basic share, representing significant upside to the current share price.

Mesoblast

Pipeline progress

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Oct 2014

Mesoblast's product pipeline continues to mature as key milestones are met. The filing of MSC-100-IV in graft vs host disease (GvHD) in Japan in early October marks its first product submission. Phase III trials started early this year for MPC-150-IM in congestive heart failure (CHF), while Phase III trials for MPV-06-ID in low back pain are expected to start by the end of 2014 following a productive meeting mid-year with the FDA. Mesoblast recently announced a new tiered product structure, whereby resources are being funnelled into its key late-stage products. We value Mesoblast at A$3.16bn (A$9.31/diluted share), more than twice its current share price.

Mesoblast

Phase III plan in low back pain taking shape

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 27 May 2014

Mesoblast intends to initiate a Phase III trial of mesenchymal precursor cells (MPCs) in discogenic low back pain later this year, following the successful Phase II trial that reported in February. This will be the first MPC programme that Mesoblast has itself taken into a Phase III study, although it inherited an ongoing Phase III trial for Prochymal (remestemcel-L) for Crohn's disease as part of last year's acquisition of Osiris's mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) business. Partner Teva has Phase III studies underway with MPCs in congestive heart failure and in bone marrow transplantation. We value the company at A$2.85bn (A$8.58/diluted share).

Mesoblast

Teva starts Phase III CHF study

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Jan 2014

Mesoblast's partner Teva has now listed the details of its pivotal Phase III study of MPCs, now coded as CEP-41750 (formerly Revascor), in congestive heart failure (CHF). The large, 1,730-patient trial should begin to recruit patients in the next few weeks and is projected to render final data in mid-2018. CHF is the most important of the seven different indications being pursued with the MPC platform and, with US$4bn peak sales potential, it represents the largest component in our valuation. We consider the move supports a higher probability of success (50% vs 40%), which boosts our rNPV to A$3.0bn (A$9.06/diluted share).

SeaEnergy

Iraq strategy remains prospective

Update | Oil & Gas | 20 Jul 2009

Our valuation of the Mesopotamia Petroleum Company (MPC) has always been zero, however the market assumed and priced in potential upside from success in Iraq. Since the announcement that the IDC apparently desires to cancel the JV with Ramco, the 35% share price reduction not only lowers the probability of success to realistic levels but offers the chance to focus attention on SeaEnergy, where value creation has occurred. With MPC, our main concern remains the lack of transparency within the original terms of the JV, which has proved to be to MPC’s detriment.