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Marshall Motor Holdings

Outperforming its markets

Update | Automotive Retailers | 14 Mar 2018

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) delivered FY17 results that exceeded our earnings estimates despite the challenges of softer UK car markets that are persisting into FY18. The dilutive disposal of the leasing activity leaves MMH effectively ungeared and in a strong position to pursue its growth strategy. As previously, we forecast a modest organic earnings decline for FY18, which may be augmented by value-adding M&A if suitable opportunities arise.

Marshalls

Well positioned in sectors with best prospects

QuickView | Construction & Building Materials | 11 Jan 2018

FY17 trading was in line with expectations, with good sector performance in the context of wider industry trends. The CPM acquisition should aid another premium growth year in 2018, beyond which the UK economic outlook should be clearer. Rating premia are earned during growth phases, but can also be sustained during less favourable industry conditions via relative outperformance, and this is what we expect to prevail at Marshalls.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Delivering continued outperformance

Update | Automotive Retailers | 11 Jan 2018

MMH’s pre-close statement indicates that the company continued its strong performance in 2017, despite challenging market conditions that are persisting into 2018. FY17 results are expected to be ahead of previously upgraded pre- and post-tax expectations, and we have lifted our PBT estimate 2% to GBP 28.8m. We have reduced our FY18 PBT estimate by GBP 1m to reflect slight additional margin pressures. The disposal of the Leasing business has strengthened the balance sheet and leaves the company well placed to implement its growth strategy.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Resetting numbers following leasing sale

Update | Automotive Retailers | 27 Nov 2017

Following the recent announcement of dealer portfolio adjustments, and the completion of the strategic disposal of Marshall Leasing, we adjust our forecasts to reflect these events. As previously commented, the leasing deal eliminates MMH’s gross debt and lifts the NAV to GBP 199.5m or 258p per share. It provides financial flexibility to implement the investment programme, including M&A to help mitigate the initial dilution that is seen in FY18e. The dealership closures eliminate losses and reduce turnover by around GBP 40m. Overall, MMH is well positioned as it enters FY18 where market conditions are expected to remain unhelpful.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Polishing the portfolio

Flash note | Automotive Retailers | 21 Nov 2017

MMH has announced a tidying up of its dealership portfolio with six underperforming sites to be closed by the end of the year. While there will be exceptional closure costs of cGBP 6m, the closures will eliminate cGBP 1.3m of operational losses expected in 2017. Although GBP 4m of the cost is cash this will flow out over a number of years against an onerous lease, and the disposal of Marshall Leasing, which has yet to complete, significantly improves the balance sheet. Our underlying numbers remain unchanged and it should be noted that management has not needed to make a trading update despite persistent new car market weakness. The elimination of losses and manufacturer responsiveness to the weaker demand appear to be setting a solid foundation for 2018 numbers.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Leasing disposal augments strategic resource

Update | Automotive Retailers | 21 Sep 2017

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) has announced that it will sell its vehicle leasing activity to Bank of Ireland for GBP 42.5m. The net proceeds equate to 33% of the market cap and will leave the company ungeared. The strengthened balance sheet provides increased financial resource with which to pursue its growth strategy in vehicle retail, both organic and acquired, which should reverse the initial dilution. On completion, the net asset value should rise by nearly 25% to around 254p per share, further underpinning the shares.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Strong H1 in a softening market

Update | Automotive Retailers | 16 Aug 2017

As indicated in the pre close trading statement, Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) made good progress in H117, outperforming a weaker UK new car retail market. While uncertainty remains over the direction of end market demand, management’s growth strategy is facilitated by the strengthened balance sheet. Our forecasts are unchanged and assume ongoing market pressure in the second half of the year, with the rating discount to its peers likely to unwind further on any signs of market resilience during H2.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Trading ahead of expectations

Update | Automotive Retailers | 04 Jul 2017

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) released a pre-close interim trading statement indicating that strong trading performance has continued in the current year, despite several potential pitfalls. As a result, we are raising our estimates for the current year and expect continued progress in FY18. The better-than-expected development leaves our fair value estimate unchanged at 214p, progress towards which should become apparent as the delivery of the growth strategy continues despite market concerns.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Driving transformational growth

Initiation | Automotive Retailers | 11 May 2017

As Marshall Motor (MMH) celebrates the second anniversary of its flotation on AIM, it can reflect positively on the continuation of its strong growth record, which has driven it to rank seventh among UK automotive retailing groups. The strong brand coverage and excellent relationships with major manufacturers should continue to deliver growth opportunities, despite potentially tougher market conditions. Our fair value for MMH currently stands at 214p per share.

Marshalls

Attractive returns

QuickView | Construction & Building Materials | 20 Mar 2017

Improved operating margins, free cash flow and group ROCE were all standout features of FY16 performance. Management is investing in the key business drivers to further enhance Marshalls' market position under a well-executed strategy and underpin expectations of further progress.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Executing the growth strategy

QuickView | Automotive Retailers | 15 Mar 2017

Following the acquisition of Ridgeway last May, Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) is now the seventh largest car dealership group in the UK, having more than doubled turnover in the last 18 months. FY16 results confirmed strong underlying progress, and FY17 looks set to deliver another positive outcome, notwithstanding uncertainty over the strength of the UK market. The company maintains its ambition to become the premier car retailer in the UK, with a balance sheet that supports further expansion through both increased organic investment and M&A. It also supports the progressive dividend payment to shareholders.

Marshall Motor Holdings

A positive debut

QuickView | Automotive Retailers | 18 Mar 2016

Marshall Motor (MMH) has emerged from its first year as a quoted company with its strong trading record sustained, its growth strategy established and a strong financial position to support management ambitions. We believe that the share price should respond over the medium term, as the market begins to recognise the potential.