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Bonesupport

Turnaround story on the way

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 16 Nov 2018

Bonesupport's independent distributor network is now promoting CERAMENT bone void filler (BVF) in the US since Zimmer Biomet's exclusivity period ended on 21 October. According to the latest update, 25 distributors in total had signed up ahead of the previously communicated deadline (end-2018). Other recent news includes Bonesupport's capital markets days in Stockholm and London, where management presented on CERAMENT products, market opportunities, clinical and economic studies, and new details on the commercial platform. Our valuation is higher at SEK1.49bn or SEK29.0/share (vs SEK22.8/share), upgraded mainly to reflect the substantial expansion of their commercial presence in Europe.

BMO Managed Portfolio Trust Growth Portfolio

Higher exposure to more defensive funds

Review | Investment Companies | 16 Nov 2018

BMO Managed Portfolio Trust (BMPT), which changed its name from F&C Managed Portfolio Trust on 9 November 2018, has a unique structure comprising two discrete portfolios investing in closed-end funds: BMPI, which aims to generate an attractive and growing level of income, with some capital growth, and BMPG, which aims to generate capital growth. Any income generated by BMPG is transferred to BMPI in exchange for an equivalent amount of capital. Manager Peter Hewitt notes that BMPI’s Q119 dividend is 3.8% higher year on year, and as previously announced, barring unforeseen circumstances, the board expects the regular annual dividend to be at least 5.85p per share (5.70p in FY18). For BMPG, the manager says the portfolio offers exposure to well-managed funds, with strong performance records and secular long-term growth characteristics. Given the manager’s near-term caution on equity markets, he has been increasing the more defensive exposures in both BMPI and BMPG.

BMO Managed Portfolio Trust Income Portfolio

Higher exposure to more defensive funds

Review | Investment Companies | 16 Nov 2018

BMO Managed Portfolio Trust (BMPT), which changed its name from F&C Managed Portfolio Trust on 9 November 2018, has a unique structure comprising two discrete portfolios investing in closed-end funds: BMPI, which aims to generate an attractive and growing level of income, with some capital growth, and BMPG, which aims to generate capital growth. Any income generated by BMPG is transferred to BMPI in exchange for an equivalent amount of capital. Manager Peter Hewitt notes that BMPI’s Q119 dividend is 3.8% higher year on year, and as previously announced, barring unforeseen circumstances, the board expects the regular annual dividend to be at least 5.85p per share (5.70p in FY18). For BMPG, the manager says the portfolio offers exposure to well-managed funds, with strong performance records and secular long-term growth characteristics. Given the manager’s near-term caution on equity markets, he has been increasing the more defensive exposures in both BMPI and BMPG.

MyBucks

Building mass while improving efficiency

Update | Financials | 15 Nov 2018

MyBucks (MBC) continues to expand its lending business organically, leveraging the acquisitions of banks from Opportunity International (in particular those operating in Mozambique and Uganda) completed in H117. At the same time, it introduced several measures to optimise its funding structure and reduce the cost of debt. MBC aims to move towards break-even at net income level through expanding its product offering, entering new regional markets, further technological innovations, as well as continued focus on operating and funding cost reductions.

Fidelity China Special Situations

Accessing China’s superior growth prospects

Review | Investment Companies | 15 Nov 2018

Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) aims to provide an attractive way for investors to gain exposure to the faster-growing areas of the Chinese economy, with China’s growing economic influence raising its importance within a balanced portfolio. FCSS’s longer-term performance has been strong – its NAV total return is ahead of the MSCI China index over five years and since its launch in 2010 – but returns are negative over one year, reflecting the Chinese stock market downturn. While market sentiment has suffered due to the US-China trade dispute, earnings forecasts have been largely unaffected, and the manager has used the correction to add to holdings with strong long-term prospects at historically low valuations.

OTC Markets Group

Gaining domestic and international traction

Outlook | Financials | 15 Nov 2018

OTC Markets Group’s (OTCM’s) Q318 results showed sound revenue growth, a pick-up in corporate client numbers and a further increase in the number of states granting Blue Sky recognition. The data-driven transparency and cost-effective proposition of OTCM’s premium markets can be seen to be gaining traction and we have increased our estimates. While fluctuations in market conditions may affect quarterly progress, the long-term scope for increased penetration of international and domestic companies could provide the basis for further estimate increases.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Strong finish to 2018 expected

Update | Automotive Retailers | 14 Nov 2018

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) released a trading update, which indicates that the group’s Q4 performance is now expected to be ahead of management and market expectations. Driven by stronger than anticipated used car sales with healthy margins, PBT is now expected to exceed FY17’s record level for the continuing business. We are increasing our FY18e PBT and EPS by 6.4%. Brexit uncertainty remains at the forefront of FY19 prospects, and as some of the currently favourable market dynamics may wane, we leave our FY19 estimates unchanged. The P/E ratio for FY19 is an undemanding 5.8x.

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI

Becat on track; guidance uplifted

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 14 Nov 2018

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI (ROVI) has reported 9M18 operating revenue of EUR 218.9m (+7.6% y-o-y), driven by substantial growth in the speciality pharmaceutical business (9M18: EUR 180.3m, +14.7% y-o-y). Management has upgraded FY18 guidance for operating revenue to a high single-digit growth rate (from mid-single digit). ROVI reported EUR 16.7m sales of Becat (enoxaparin biosimilar) in 9M18 and its performance benefits from ongoing roll-out in several European countries during 2018. In October, ROVI raised gross proceeds of EUR 88m from a capital raise, which will be used to fund R&D efforts (DORIA Phase III and Letrozole ISM Phase I) and the ongoing marketing of Becat. We value ROVI at EUR 1.13bn.

Cohort

Further order successes for MASS and EID

Flash note | Aerospace & Defence | 13 Nov 2018

The positive order intake news continues for Cohort. It has announced a further GBP 3.2m contract for MASS to provide business analysis support to the UK’s MOD. In addition, the Portuguese subsidiary EID has won export contracts worth EUR 11m for vehicle intercom systems for two existing customers. The EID contracts include successful acquisition of one of the five potential order opportunities previously indicated in the AGM update. Cohort continues to see improving overall group order inflow, which underpins the outlook for the businesses through FY19 as well as in the medium term. The shares have been performing well in a challenging stock market, and the current FY20e P/E of just 12.3x remains undemanding in our view.

Evolva

Everything EverSweet

Update | Food & Drink | 13 Nov 2018

Evolva’s Q3 trading statement is mixed, but overall we believe it contains more positive than negative news. The announcement that Cargill and DSM are to form a new joint venture to produce fermentation-based stevia under the EverSweet brand is not a threat to Evolva’s position and indeed could potentially accelerate growth of the market that is still in its infancy. We note that revenue guidance is somewhat less bullish than at the H1 results and we therefore trim our forecasts slightly. We also update our forecasts for FX and overall our fair value remains unchanged at CHF0.58

PDL BioPharma

Q318 results

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Nov 2018

PDL reported Q318 revenues of $67.9m, up 8.2% compared to Q317 and up 45.8% sequentially, with that growth mainly due to an increase in the fair value of the Assertio (formerly Depomed) royalty rights. Noden Product revenue of $17.8m was up 17.9% compared to Q317 but was down 31.2% sequentially, mainly due to the bulk purchasing by distribution partner Orphan Pacific for the Japanese market launch in Q218. Importantly, PDL recently announced a $100m stock repurchase program which at current prices would buy back approximately 25% of the common shares outstanding.

Carr's Group

Recovery in both divisions confirmed

Update | Consumer staples | 12 Nov 2018

The FY18 results for Carr’s Group show that it has delivered the promised recovery in both divisions. This is the result of (1) market conditions which have boosted demand for feed blocks in the US and a wide range of agricultural inputs in the UK; and (2) prior year investment, for example in feed block production capacity and in acquisitions. Noting that the FY18 performance was ahead of our estimates, we revise our FY19 and FY20 forecasts upwards and raise our indicative valuation by 4p/share to 182p/share.