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Allium Medical Solutions

Making progress across the board

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Aug 2018

Allium has reported H118 financial results. Revenues increased 31% y-o-y to NIS4.9m. As before, we continue to expect additional product approvals during 2018 and sales growth from its distribution deals in new and established markets. We maintain our FY18 sales forecast of NIS14m with a projected 2017-2020e revenue CAGR of 57%. We continue to believe that regional expansion is crucial to the company’s investment case. Our valuation, updated for net cash of NIS16.6m, is NIS1.82 per share.

7digital Group

Ready to rock ’n' roll

Update | Technology | 16 Aug 2018

7digtal has now reported its FY17 results, which show a strong uplift in revenues, reflecting the 24-7 acquisition, and a greatly reduced EBITDA loss. The publication of the results was delayed in order to conduct a thorough review by new auditors, resulting in a significant strengthening in reporting procedures and systems, and a restatement of historical figures. The rapidly shifting streaming market gives the group significant B2B opportunities, with music a key element of customer engagement for retailers, connected devices and mobile network operators.

Takung Art

Pausing new listings

Update | Media | 16 Aug 2018

Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Political impacts on global gas trade

Update | Oil & Gas | 15 Aug 2018

Potential Chinese tariffs on US LNG and European concerns over the security of gas supply have the potential to alter forecast global gas flows materially. Growing US LNG exports were expected to make a significant contribution in meeting flourishing Chinese gas demand. However, we believe Trump’s trade war and a retaliatory Chinese LNG tariff could see US molecules redirected to other Asian consumers and the European market, a market looking to develop alternatives to Russian piped gas supply. It is difficult to quantify the precise impact of a potential tariff for US LNG on Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd’s (LNGL) valuation. Fundamentally, the impact is likely to be small as we assume fixed price tolling fee arrangements, but current rhetoric on tariffs is likely to be on the minds of project financiers and gas offtakers, potentially delaying project timelines. For now, we maintain our valuation at A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR). The political impasse between the US and China could push back first gas from our current 2024 forecast for Magnolia LNG.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Record first half but a testing H2

Update | Automotive Retailers | 15 Aug 2018

Marshall Motor’s (MMH’s) ongoing businesses delivered a record H1 profit before tax despite continued challenges in the UK new and used car markets. While comparatives are easing in the second half, new car supply-side constraints may impact in Q3 as new vehicle testing procedures are introduced. We continue to forecast a fall in H2 profitability, but the strength of the H1 contribution and a strong balance sheet lead us to increase estimates modestly by around 3% for this year and next.

JPJ Group plc

Global growth keeps profits intact

Update | Travel & Leisure | 14 Aug 2018

JPJ Group plc (JPJ's) Q2 headline numbers were in line with our expectations, with growth in international markets offsetting weaker UK revenues. The company remains competitively well positioned across all its key markets and is highly cash generative. JPJ has signed a share purchase agreement for the sale of the social business for £18.1m cash, which we estimate had annual revenues of £12m and EBITDA of £3.5m. We have adjusted our EBITDA to reflect the sale, but our profit forecasts would otherwise have been broadly unchanged. The stock continues to trade at a meaningful discount to peers, at 9.8x EV/EBITDA and 8.2x P/E for FY19e.

China Water Affairs Group

Well positioned in a growing market

Outlook | General Industrials | 08 Aug 2018

China Water Affairs Group (CWA) is well positioned to take advantage of the favourable trends that we expect in the Chinese water and sewage market. CWA’s portfolio of water assets, experienced team, stable financial position and impressive track record should enable the company to continue to grow returns for shareholders.

Rotork

Preparing for acceleration

QuickView | General Industrials | 08 Aug 2018

Rotork is ensuring the pillars are in place to deliver growth. The H118 report demonstrated end-market support, with order book growth across all divisions and solid operating performance. Management now has both the framework and the personnel in place to drive the initiatives on route to market, new product development and lean manufacturing.

IQE

Six more VCSEL projects in mass production

Update | Technology | 07 Aug 2018

IQE’s post-H118 close trading update notes the group continues to trade in line with current market expectations. Importantly, it comments on a significant increase in photonics revenues from product qualifications, underpinning management’s expectation of a photonics ramp-up in H218 and FY19. We raise our revenue estimates slightly but otherwise leave our forecasts unchanged.

Rock Tech Lithium

Fast-tracking a hard-rock spodumene play

Initiation | Mining | 06 Aug 2018

Rock Tech Lithium (RCK) recently commenced a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) at its wholly-owned Georgia Lake lithium project in Ontario, Canada. Exploration and drilling by RCK confirmed and expanded on historical resource estimates and the emphasis has now switched from exploration to development. Georgia Lake is a shallow pegmatite deposit, located close to infrastructure in Ontario, and RCK believes it can fast-track the deposit into production to coincide with positive lithium market fundamentals. Long-term optionality is provided by the recent acquisition of the Nogalito brine project.

TXT e-solutions

Cheleo acquisition drives upgrades

Update | Technology | 06 Aug 2018

TXT reported H118 revenue growth of 6% y-o-y; investments in R&D and sales and marketing ahead of this growth rate resulted in margin pressure in H118. TXT has completed the acquisition of a majority stake in Cheleo and we have factored this into our forecasts from 1 August. The combination of slightly lower growth forecasts for TXT Next, a one-off tax credit and the higher margin growth of Cheleo results in normalised EPS upgrades of 16% in FY18e and 24% in FY19e. After paying for Cheleo, we estimate the company has funds of more than EUR 70m to invest in accretive acquisitions in the transportation and fintech markets.

Ultra Electronics

Return to growth

Outlook | Aerospace & Defence | 06 Aug 2018

The overall picture of improving global defence spending supports a return to organic growth for UItra. This is already reflected in the uplift seen in the order book at the H118 report. The company is well positioned to leverage the growth in naval budgets and increased demand for military aircraft around the world. Ultra also has a significant role to play in commercial aerospace, energy and cyber markets. Our fair value is 1,918p.