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Genesis Energy

Executive interview - Genesis Energy

Edison TV: | Utilities | 24 Sep 2018

is an energy company involved in the generation of electricity, retailing and trading of energy, and the development and procurement of fuel sources. The company operates through four segments: customer experience, energy management, oil and gas, and corporate. The customer experience segment is engaged in supplying energy (electricity, gas and liquefied petroleum gas [LPG]) and related services to end-user customers. The energy management segment is engaged in generating and trading electricity and related products. It includes electricity sales to the wholesale electricity market, derivatives entered into to fix the price of electricity, and wholesale gas and coal sales. The oil and gas segment is engaged in the exploration, development, production and sale of gas, LPG and light oil. The corporate segment is engaged in new generation investigation and development, fuel management, information systems and property management, among others.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Political impacts on global gas trade

Update | Oil & Gas | 15 Aug 2018

Potential Chinese tariffs on US LNG and European concerns over the security of gas supply have the potential to alter forecast global gas flows materially. Growing US LNG exports were expected to make a significant contribution in meeting flourishing Chinese gas demand. However, we believe Trump’s trade war and a retaliatory Chinese LNG tariff could see US molecules redirected to other Asian consumers and the European market, a market looking to develop alternatives to Russian piped gas supply. It is difficult to quantify the precise impact of a potential tariff for US LNG on Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd’s (LNGL) valuation. Fundamentally, the impact is likely to be small as we assume fixed price tolling fee arrangements, but current rhetoric on tariffs is likely to be on the minds of project financiers and gas offtakers, potentially delaying project timelines. For now, we maintain our valuation at A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR). The political impasse between the US and China could push back first gas from our current 2024 forecast for Magnolia LNG.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Strategic investor enhances credibility in China

Update | Oil & Gas | 19 Jun 2018

On 4 June 2018, Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (LNGL) announced a strategic investment by IDG Energy Investment Group (IDG Energy), a Hong Kong-listed investment holding company affiliated to IDG Capital with assets under management of c $20bn. The share placement raised gross proceeds of A$28.2m at a price of A$0.5/share (a 14.1% premium to 30-day volume weighted average price to 1 June 2018). We believe the share placement will cover Magnolia pre-FID costs and cash burn through to mid-2020. In addition, the presence of IDG Energy as a major shareholder (9.9% of share capital) will enhance credibility in China, a principal growth market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Our valuation, which we have updated to reflect funds raised and fx, rises 1% from A$1.00/share (US$3.23/ADR) to A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR).

Renergen

South African LNG and helium play

Initiation | Oil & Gas | 13 Mar 2018

Renergen represents a unique opportunity for investors. The company holds the first, and currently only, onshore petroleum production right in South Africa. While it is already producing and selling gas, production is set to accelerate in the next 18 months as it moves to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, primarily serving the growing domestic heavy duty truck market. The move to LNG also unlocks the potential to extract and sell helium, adding material upside to economics (c 35% upside to NAV). With gross 2P reserves of 142 bcf of methane and c 2.2% of additional helium (Renergen 90% WI), our risked core NAV on a fully diluted basis is ZAR19.0/share. We estimate additional funding of c ZAR240m is required to become self-funding, in addition to a secured ZAR218m of term loan.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Moving towards FID in 2018

ADR Outlook | Oil & Gas | 13 Feb 2018

Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from US$3.79/ADR (A$1.25/share) to US$3.23/ADR (A$1.00/share). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Moving towards FID in 2018

Outlook | Oil & Gas | 13 Feb 2018

Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from A$1.25/share (US$3.79/ADR) to A$1.00/share (US$3.23/ADR). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Improving macro environment

ADR Update | Oil & Gas | 29 Nov 2017

The Magnolia development remains one of the most competitive LNG development projects (greenfield or brownfield) globally. Industry is starting to recognize that the current LNG oversupply will move towards undersupply within five years and there are few projects on track to fill the resulting gap. This should put Magnolia increasingly in the spotlight for buyers looking to fulfil demand in 2023 onwards. LNGL management has indicated it is in discussions with many companies across a diverse set of geographies and interests. We have adjusted our valuation to account for a delayed expectation of project FID, reducing it slightly to $A1.25/share (US$3.8/ADR).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Improving macro environment

Update | Oil & Gas | 29 Nov 2017

The Magnolia development remains one of the most competitive LNG development projects (greenfield or brownfield) globally. Industry is starting to recognise that the current LNG oversupply will move towards undersupply within five years and there are few projects on track to fill the resulting gap. This should put Magnolia increasingly in the spotlight for buyers looking to fulfil demand in 2023 onwards. LNGL management has indicated it is in discussions with many companies across a diverse set of geographies and interests. We have adjusted our valuation to account for a delayed expectation of project FID, reducing it slightly to $A1.25/share (US$3.8/ADR).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Stonepeak increases its involvement

ADR Update | Oil & Gas | 10 Jul 2017

Stonepeak has committed to fund the full equity component of financing the Magnolia project, totalling US$1.5bn. The terms of the agreement have changed, and Stonepeak will be taking a preferred interest in the project, leaving LNGL with a 100% equity ownership. This is a vote of confidence for the project. The key remaining event for Magnolia will be the completion of binding tolling agreements covering enough volumes to enable project sanction. All necessary regulatory milestones have been reached, leaving the company entirely focused on negotiations with potential partners to enable sanction of the 8mtpa project. Within its peer group, Magnolia is well placed to be able to deliver LNG cargoes in the 2021-2022 period, in time with projected demand needs. We have adjusted our valuation, increasing it to A$1.37 /share (US$4.19/ADR).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Stonepeak increases its involvement

Update | Oil & Gas | 10 Jul 2017

Stonepeak has committed to fund the full equity component of financing the Magnolia project, totaling US$1.5bn. The terms of the agreement have changed, and Stonepeak will be taking a preferred interest in the project, leaving LNGL with a 100% equity ownership. This is a vote of confidence for the project. The key remaining event for Magnolia will be the completion of binding tolling agreements covering enough volumes to enable project sanction. All necessary regulatory milestones have been reached, leaving the company entirely focused on negotiations with potential partners to enable sanction of the 8mtpa project. Within its peer group, Magnolia is well placed to be able to deliver LNG cargoes in the 2021-2022 period, in time with projected demand needs. We have adjusted our valuation, increasing it to US$4.19/ADR (A$1.37 /share).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Marketing mode

ADR Update | Oil & Gas | 06 Apr 2017

Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (LNGL) has made progress in the last six months towards Final Investment Decision (FID). Signing binding tolling agreements is key and encouragingly, the company is in discussion with potential partners for over three times the 8mtpa capacity. Importantly, the project retains its (non-binding) offtake agreement with Meridian and a heads of agreement with Vessel Gasification Solutions (VGS). Technically, the project is in good shape, with certainty over costs (until June 2017) and non-FTA approval received, while discussions with Stonepeak over extension of equity funding are advancing and debt funding capacity should be available. We have tweaked our DCF-based valuation for actual cash levels and FX rates, resulting in a broadly unchanged value of US$3.84/ADR (or A$1.26/share).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Marketing mode

Update | Oil & Gas | 05 Apr 2017

Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (LNGL) has made progress in the last six months towards Final Investment Decision (FID). Signing binding tolling agreements is key and encouragingly, the company is in discussion with potential partners for over three times the 8mtpa capacity. Importantly, the project retains its (non-binding) offtake agreement with Meridian and a heads of agreement with Vessel Gasification Solutions (VGS). Technically, the project is in good shape, with certainty over costs (until June 2017) and non-FTA approval received, while discussions with Stonepeak over extension of equity funding are advancing and debt funding capacity should be available. We have tweaked our DCF-based valuation for actual cash levels and FX rates, resulting in a broadly unchanged value of A$1.26/share (or US$3.84/ADR).