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Actinogen Medical

Differentiated treatment for Alzheimer’s disease

Initiation | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 18 Mar 2019

Actinogen Medical is an ASX-listed Australian biotech developing its lead asset Xanamem to treat cognitive impairment that occurs in chronic neurodegenerative diseases. Xanamem® is a selective 11β-HSD1 inhibitor that is able to cross the blood-brain barrier and target excess brain cortisol, which has been associated with cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The ongoing Phase II XanADu trial is fully enrolled with mild AD patients, who receive Xanamem in conjunction with standard of care. The results are due by end-Q219 and will shape further development of Xanamem. Our valuation is A$195m or A$0.17/share.

VolitionRx

Executive interview - VolitionRx Discusses FY18 Results and Provides a Business Update

Edison TV: | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 15 Mar 2019

In this interview, Cameron Reynolds, President and Chief Executive Office of Volition, discusses the Company’s financial results and provides a business update for the full fiscal year ended December 31, 2018. The Company made significant progress on building out it’s Nu.QTM platform and reported positive initial data from its first product grade assays. The team aims to further strengthen their product pipeline beyond colorectal cancer to include several cancers and diseases, along with advancing the Nu.Q Capture and Nu.Q Vet products to help drive early revenue.

Newron Pharmaceuticals

Moving towards R&D inflection points

Outlook | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 14 Mar 2019

Newron's FY18 highlights the steady progression of its CNS R&D pipeline. STARS the pivotal Phase II/III (Sarizotan for Rett's Syndrome) has completed enrolment and data are expected in Q419. Newron is planning to apply for a global filing and approval strategy once data are available. Evenamide (schizophrenia), developed internally through Newron's ion channel discovery platform, could enable a paradigm shift in the treatment of refractory schizophrenia patients; in Q219 Newron will initiate two pivotal Phase IIb/III trials. We value Newron at CHF714m.

AAC Microtec

Space to manoeuvre

Initiation | Aerospace & Defence | 12 Mar 2019

Following the acquisition of Clyde Space in January 2018, ÅAC Microtec is at the forefront of the rapidly growing and revolutionary market for small satellites. As nanosatellite build rates and deployments rise sharply over the next decade, increasing systems supply and platform revenues should be enhanced by operational and service revenues, moving ÅAC to a sustainable financial footing. Near-term growth challenges remain but the company delivered on strong growth guidance for 2018 and achieved a positive EBITDA in Q418. Our capped DCF-based value indicates a price of SEK14.7 per share, despite applying a WACC of 12%.

Egdon Resources

Extensive shale sequence with gas indications

Flash note | Oil & gas | 11 Mar 2019

IGas has released an initial update on drilling activity at Springs Road, with over 250m of hydrocarbon bearing shale encountered. Pressurised core samples were shown to release gas at atmospheric pressure as can be seen in this video released by IGas. Our last published conventional asset value for Egdon was 12.7p/share and included 3.6p/share of risked value for Biscathorpe-2 which we expect to remove. The valuation of Egdon's net shale resource (188,000 net acres) remains uncertain but, in our view, has the potential to be worth a risked c 100p/share based on the current expectation of well cost, type curves and forward gas prices, assuming a supportive political and planning backdrop.

bet-at-home

Consistent cash generation

Initiation | Travel & Leisure | 07 Mar 2019

bet-at-home (BAH) is a long-established European sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. Regulatory risks are high, as witnessed by IP blocking in Poland and Switzerland and the company has issued guidance of a c 10o20% decline in EBITDA for FY19. Nonetheless, BAH has consistently produced strong operating cash flow and its ability to pay high dividends is very attractive. The stock is up 28% ytd and trades at 14.9x P/E, 10.9x EV/EBITDA and 8.5% dividend yield for FY19e.

MGC Pharmaceuticals

MGC Derma sale completed

Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 04 Mar 2019

Key milestones for MGC Pharmaceuticals in 2019 include the launch of CannEpil sales in Australia, finalising contracts for the construction of a cannabis production and cultivation facility in Malta, and initiation of a Phase II study of CogniCann in dementia. The company has completed the sale of MGC Derma to CannaGlobal, which was announced in September. The transaction was restructured in November, which sees us reduce our valuation of the consideration to A$7.5m (vs A$12.5m). We adjust our valuation to A$135m (vs A$140m) due to the lower transaction valuation.

Marble Point Loan Financing

Disciplined leveraged loan investment specialist

Initiation | Investment trusts | 01 Mar 2019

Marble Point Loan Financing (MPLF) is a specialist closed-end fund that invests in leveraged loans directly and indirectly via collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) and loan accumulation facilities (LAFs) managed by Marble Point Credit Management (Marble Point). The experienced credit investment team employs a conservative, disciplined approach, seeking to achieve a low- to mid-teens percentage return on equity (ROE) over the long term. Performance has been mixed since MPLF’s initial public offering (IPO) in February 2018, with its mark-to-market pricing approach directly reflecting recent market volatility. However, its underlying portfolio has been largely unaffected and cash flow generation remains strong, allowing the manager to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities.

OPAP

Exclusivity pays dividends

Initiation | Technology | 28 Feb 2019

OPAP is Europe’s only listed gaming operator with 100% pre-paid exclusive retail licences, providing significant barriers to entry. Despite softness in Greek retail spending, management has successfully defended profits through product enhancements and cost controls. OPAP is halfway through its 2020 Vision plan to create a leading gaming entertainment company and further momentum is underway with full deployment of video lottery terminals (VLTs), as well as a move into online. The stock tracked the Greek market down 27% in 2018, but has recovered by c 17% ytd. The business is highly cash generative, with the bulk of FCF paid out as dividends. We estimate a FY19 dividend yield of 8.3%, excluding specials.

Sarine Technologies

External factors remain challenging

Update | General Industrials | 28 Feb 2019

Sarine continued to experience more muted midstream demand in Q418, both in terms of capital equipment sales and recurring revenues. At the same time, it has kept its operating expenses under control, which allowed it to post a 6.3% y-o-y improvement in operating profit in FY18. As sales and marketing initiatives intensify in 2019 while industry challenges persist, the company has decided to temporarily reduce its dividend policy to one US cent every six months (from 2 US cents before), which still translates into a solid dividend yield at c 5% on an annualised basis.

Taronis Technologies

Los Angeles acquisition completes platform

Update | General Industrials | 28 Feb 2019

Taronis Technologies (formerly MagneGas) has completed the acquisition of one of the largest independently owned industrial gas distributors in Los Angeles, California, for $2.5m, payable in cash. The business adds $4.5m annualised sales, five depots in the Los Angeles area and a sales route to the Baja California and Sonora regions of Mexico. Importantly it completes the first phase of the acquisition programme initiated in 2017, creating a platform that management intends to deliver at least $100m revenues within five years.

Acacia Pharma

Ready for BARHEMSYS launch in H119

Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 27 Feb 2019

Acacia Pharma has now established its initial US sales and marketing infrastructure, ahead of the potential launch of lead asset BARHEMSYS. This is the first step in its strategy to bring antiemetic drugs to the hospital setting for unmet needs in PONV and CINV. The FDA has accepted Acacia’s revised New Drug Application (NDA) for BARHEMSYS and has now set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date of 5 May. We continue to expect launch of BARHEMSYS in H119. We value Acacia at EUR 635m (or EUR 11.9/share) vs EUR 602m (or EUR 11.3/share) previously.