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Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Update | Food & Drink | 10 May 2018

Greggs’ management has been open in recognising that despite the Beast from the East and other extraordinary weather patterns, there is an underlying softening of demand. We have reduced forecasts, but see earnings growth continuing from a combination of like-for-like sales, shop expansion, and investment in the estate and manufacturing and fulfilment infrastructure. Greggs’ value positioning should place it well in a tight consumer market, and at these levels the valuation is attractive.

KEFI Minerals

Blue sky and beyond

Outlook | Mining | 08 May 2018

KEFI has formally mandated the placing of US$160m of Luxembourg-listed infrastructure bonds, which are expected to fund ownership by the Luxembourg-regulated SPV of the gold processing plant and ancillary infrastructure at the Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company (TKGM), jointly owned by KEFI Minerals (Ethiopia) and the Ethiopian government. This initiative follows a positive draft independent technical expert’s report on the project. Subject to completion of all due diligence, documentation and government approvals, drawdown and development is planned for the end of the Ethiopian wet season, in September. While originally designed as a 1.2Mtpa operation, plant throughput at Tulu Kapi has since been increased to 1.9–2.1Mtpa for around the same overall capital cost.

Jupiter Green Investment Trust

Finding opportunities in emerging eco-trends

Review | Investment Companies | 02 May 2018

Jupiter Green Investment Trust (JGC) focuses on companies that are providing innovative solutions to environmental challenges, and as such is benefiting from the high level of public interest in issues such as reducing waste from single-use plastics. Fund manager Charlie Thomas reports, for instance, that plastic recycling specialist Tomra Systems – JGC’s second-largest holding – has seen its share price rise over 45% in the past year as it wins new contracts around the world. JGC’s portfolio is diversified by geography and industry, and includes companies grouped under three broad themes of resource efficiency, infrastructure and demographics. The managers note that the environmental challenges – and hence the solutions to them – are increasingly complex and interlinked, which arguably plays to the strengths of a team that has been specialising in ‘green’ investment since the launch of the Jupiter Ecology Fund in 1988.


Strong Residential performance

Update | General Industrials | 20 Apr 2018

Newbuild residential was the standout sector for Polypipe in FY17 with relatively subdued performance in Commercial and Infrastructure. Overall, underlying PBT and EPS from ongoing operations rose by 7.9% and 10.1% with full year DPS up by 9.9%. Our estimates are slightly lower adjusted for a non-core business disposal but recent share price weakness is overdone in our view.

China Aviation Oil (Singapore)

Traffic growth supporting demand

Update | Industrial Support Services | 29 Mar 2018

FY17 saw record core trading volumes, driven by continued strong demand in jet fuel markets and diversification into other oil products. While margin optimisation execution was more difficult in H217 as markets moved into backwardation, gross margins remained positive and partially recovered from the Q3 low by the year end. Combined with the improved associates’ contribution driven by strong air transport growth in China, prospects for renewed progress in FY18 are encouraging. The healthy balance sheet also positions the group to pursue development of its supply chain infrastructure globally, especially growth opportunities aligned with China’s One Belt, One Road trade route to Europe initiative. Our fair value currently stands at S$1.82.


Delivering IT programme and revenue growth

Update | Financials | 27 Mar 2018

Share’s FY17 results announcement continued the flow of encouraging news seen from previous updates. There was a strong increase in revenue and a move into modest normalised pre-tax profits. The IT investment programme is well underway and is becoming more visible as App enhancements and website improvements come on stream. Underpinning this are projects to strengthen infrastructure on which client service and the business depends. Operational gearing has the potential to bring the currently high prospective earnings multiples down rapidly.

John Laing Group

Diversified portfolio continues to deliver growth

Update | Financials | 23 Mar 2018

John Laing Group’s (JLG) FY17 results delivered further growth in DPS and NAV and highlighted the increasing internationalisation of the business. The announcement of a rights issue to fund future growth was unexpected, but we see significant opportunity in the global infrastructure market. At the current share price of c 260p, JLG stands at a significant discount to its adjusted NAV per share of 281p.

Jersey Electricity

Strong cash generation

Outlook | General Industrials | 05 Mar 2018

Jersey Electricity (JEL) delivered for both shareholders and customers in FY17. After an extended period of heavy investment in infrastructure, we believe JEL is well placed to continue to provide secure, sustainable and affordable electricity for its customers, generate attractive returns for shareholders and adapt to any regulatory changes. JEL has established an impressive track record of DPS growth (five-year CAGR c 5%) and shareholders should look forward to continuing growth in the DPS (we forecast c 5% pa) underpinned by a strengthening balance sheet.

Utilico Emerging Markets

Proposal to re-domicile in the UK

Review | Investment Companies | 26 Feb 2018

Utilico Emerging Markets (UEM) aims to generate long-term growth in capital and income from a portfolio of 60-90 emerging market equities. Exposure is diversified by geography, with a large concentration in infrastructure, utility and related sectors. Manager Charles Jillings is bullish on the outlook for emerging market equities in 2018 due to a widespread economic improvement, which should result in another year of robust corporate profits. UEM has announced that it is proposing to change its domicile from Bermuda to the UK, which has the potential to improve investor perception and may lead to a narrower discount.

Foresight Autonomous Holdings

Eye-Net to start trials - alpha version due end Q1

Flash note | Technology | 15 Feb 2018

Foresight has announced that it has completed the demo version of Eye-Net, its cellphone-based accident cell phone prevention system, and is now looking to complete the alpha version by the end of Q118. Eye-Net is a vehicle to infrastructure (V2X) system, which provides real-time alerts over standard cellular networks of potential accidents between pedestrians and vehicles as well as between vehicles themselves. To date, the company has carried out more than 15 successful demonstrations, in all of which it was able to alert users in time to enable them to brake safely. We see Eye-Net as a value enhancer for the Foresight group, which to date has focused on using autonomous safety features for vehicles and rail users.

Tetragon Financial Group

Executive interview - Tetragon Financial Management

Edison TV: | Investment Companies | 31 Jan 2018

Tetragon Financial Group’s investment objective is to generate distributable income and capital appreciation, aiming to provide stable returns to investors across various credit, equity, interest rate, inflation and real estate cycles. The investment portfolio comprises a broad range of assets, including a diversified alternative asset management business, TFG Asset Management, and covers bank loans, real estate, equities, credit, convertible bonds and infrastructure. In this video, Tetragon co-founder and director Paddy Dear provides an overview of TFG Asset Management and explains how it fits into Tetragon’s investment portfolio.Tetragon is scheduled to publish its end-December 2017 monthly factsheet today, providing updated key performance metrics and portfolio analysis.

Ellomay Capital

2018 a key year for growth delivery

Update | Alternative Energy | 30 Jan 2018

Ellomay Capital is a renewable power and energy infrastructure company currently undertaking significant new development projects. 9M17 results showed significant EBITDA growth (+23% y-o-y), mostly reflecting an increase in solar production thanks to the normalisation in weather conditions. We expect 2018 to be a key year for project delivery as our revised forecasts point to very strong profit growth (EBITDA up 80% y-o-y), mainly driven by the commissioning of two new biogas projects in the Netherlands and full contribution from the solar PV acquisition in Israel. We see project delivery as the main catalyst for the stock.