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Hutchison China MediTech

ASCO data set up fruquintinib for China launch

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Jun 2017

At ASCO, Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) presented detailed Phase III trial results for one of its leading assets, fruquintinib (third-line colorectal cancer). Full data from the China-based FRESCO study demonstrated statistically meaningful improvements in both overall and progression-free survival while reinforcing the safety profile of the drug (no liver toxicity). This is the first full Phase III data readout from HCM and further validates its strategy of creating next-generation selective tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). HCM’s (together with partner Lilly) NDA to the China FDA has been accepted (Lilly will pay HCM a $4.5m milestone payment) with a launch potentially now in 2018. We maintain our valuation of $2.7bn.

Hutchison China MediTech

ASCO data set up fruquintinib for China launch

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Jun 2017

At ASCO, Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) presented detailed Phase III trial results for one of its leading assets, fruquintinib (third-line colorectal cancer). Full data from the China-based FRESCO study demonstrated statistically meaningful improvements in both overall and progression-free survival while reinforcing the safety profile of the drug (no liver toxicity). This is the first full Phase III data readout from HCM and further validates its strategy of creating next-generation selective tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). HCM's (together with partner Lilly) NDA to the China FDA has been accepted (Lilly will pay HCM a $4.5m milestone payment) with a launch potentially now in 2018. We maintain our valuation of $2.7bn.

Hutchison China MediTech

Stellar evolution

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 27 May 2016

Hutchison China MediTech (Chi-Med) (HCM) is an innovative biopharma company focused on the highly lucrative global oncology and immunology markets. HCM has built a substantial pipeline of potential first-in-class or best-in-class tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) drugs, some of which are in development with strategic partners. HCM's profitable Chinese healthcare business continues to benefit from the fast-growing domestic market. We expect progress of the mid- to late-stage pipeline during 2016-17 (including US and China regulatory filings) to catapult the company into the international spotlight. We initiate with a value of $2.3bn, or $19.31/ADS.

Hutchison China MediTech

Stellar evolution

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 27 May 2016

Hutchison China MediTech (Chi-Med) (HCM) is an innovative biopharma company focused on the highly lucrative global oncology and immunology markets. HCM has built a substantial pipeline of potential first-in-class or best-in-class tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) drugs, some of which are in development with strategic partners. HCM's profitable Chinese healthcare business continues to benefit from the fast-growing domestic market. We expect progress of the mid- to late-stage pipeline during 2016-17 (including US and China regulatory filings) to catapult the company into the international spotlight. We re-initiate with a value of $2.3bn, or £25.8 share.

Hutchison China MediTech

Establishing a global operational presence

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 17 Aug 2018

Highlights from Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) H118 results relate to the substantial pipeline-related newsflow expected in 2018/19, the recent expansion of its US and international operations (which will enable HCM to execute its international R&D and commercialisation strategies) plus strong operational and financial performance by the China commercial platform division. Fruquintinib (third-line CRC) remains on track to launch in China by year end (approval decision expected by the CNDA in the next few months). Encouraging Phase II data so far on savolitinib (first-line NSCLC exon14m/deletion) could lead to accelerated approval in China, contingent on final data (expected in 2020) being consistent with data to date. We value HCM at $6.4bn or GBP 73.3/share.

Hutchison China MediTech

Jewels in the crown

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 01 Jun 2018

Key near-term value drivers include newsflow from partnered assets savolitinib (AZN globally) and fruquintinib (LLY in China). By year end, we anticipate the China FDA to approve fruquintinib (3L CRC). The molecular epidemiology study (MES) data on savolitinib in PRCC could support a US NDA submission (possible breakthrough therapy designation, BTD). Both products have blockbuster potential; as combination therapies in cancer drive overall uptake of targeted therapies. Beyond this we expect progression in Hutchison China MediTech's (HCM) wholly owned late stage oncology assets to reach value inflection points over the next few years. We have extensively reviewed our financial forecasts and increase our valuation to $47.9/ADS or $6.4bn.

Hutchison China MediTech

Jewels in the crown

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 31 May 2018

Key near-term value drivers include newsflow from partnered assets savolitinib (AZN globally) and fruquintinib (LLY in China). By year end, we anticipate the China FDA to approve fruquintinib (3L CRC). The molecular epidemiology study (MES) data on savolitinib in PRCC could support a US NDA submission (possible breakthrough therapy designation, BTD). Both products have blockbuster potential; as combination therapies in cancer drive overall uptake of targeted therapies. Beyond this we expect progression in Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) wholly owned late stage oncology assets to reach value inflection points over the next few years. We have extensively reviewed our financial forecasts and increase our valuation to GBP 71.0/share or $6.4bn.

Hutchison China MediTech

WCLC highlights savolitinib combination potential

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 19 Oct 2017

Data presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) on combination approaches to treat resistant EGFR-driven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) highlight a widening of the patient population that could be eligible to receive savolitinib in combination with either Tagrisso or Iressa. Partner AZN now has the data set to make a decision on global Phase III trials and evaluate breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) potential in both 2L and 3L EGFR-resistant NSCLC; in our view, data to date supports both. BTD could offer earlier entry into the US market. Furthermore, Phase II data presented on fruquintinib in combination with Iressa (first line EGFRm NSCLC) showed encouraging efficacy and acceptable safety. We place our forecasts and valuation under review as we revisit our peak sales assumptions.

Hutchison China MediTech

WCLC highlights savolitinib combination potential

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 Oct 2017

Data presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) on combination approaches to treat resistant EGFR-driven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) highlight a widening of the patient population that could be eligible to receive savolitinib in combination with either Tagrisso or Iressa. Partner AZN now has the data set to make a decision on global Phase III trials and evaluate breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) potential in both 2L and 3L EGFR-resistant NSCLC; in our view, data to date supports both. BTD could offer earlier entry into the US market. Furthermore, Phase II data presented on fruquintinib in combination with Iressa (first line EGFRm NSCLC) showed encouraging efficacy and acceptable safety. We place our forecasts and valuation under review as we revisit our peak sales assumptions.

Hutchison China MediTech

Future stars are aligning

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 May 2017

Despite a strong run over the last 12 months, our increased valuation of $2.7bn suggests the market overlooks HCM's full R&D potential. Multiple catalysts are on the horizon in 2017/18; notably the China FDA filing for fruquintinib in CRC (full Phase III CRC data [China] at ASCO) and overall survival data from the savolitinib Phase II trial in c-Met-driven PRCC (could support a US NDA submission). Further progress of the early to mid-stage pipeline over time should retain investors focus. Ultimately, HCM's move to commercialize its innovative pipeline in its domestic market (and longer term in international territories) could provide a major source of uplift.

Hutchison China MediTech

Future stars are aligning

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 May 2017

Despite a strong run over the last 12 months, our increased valuation of $2.7bn suggests the market overlooks HCM's full R&D potential. Multiple catalysts are on the horizon in 2017/18; notably the China FDA filing for fruquintinib in CRC (full Phase III CRC data [China] at ASCO) and overall survival data from the savolitinib Phase II trial in c-Met-driven PRCC (could support a US NDA submission). Further progress of the early to mid-stage pipeline over time should retain investors focus. Ultimately, HCM's move to commercialise its innovative pipeline in its domestic market (and longer term in international territories) could provide a major source of uplift.

Hutchison China MediTech

Fruquintinib FRESCO meets its primary endpoints

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 07 Mar 2017

Hutchison (HCM) and partner Lilly announced positive, top-line pivotal phase III trial results for fruquintinib in 3rd line colorectal cancer. The China based FRESCO study evaluating 416 patients who had failed at least two prior chemotherapies in CRC demonstrated a clinically meaningful and statistically significant increase in both overall survival and progression-free survival compared to placebo. Consequently, HCM is preparing for a China NDA submission mid-2017; this represents the first China based oncology innovation to succeed at Phase III. We expect the full data to be presented at the 53rd American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting (ASCO) 2 to 6 June 2017. Our valuation remains unchanged at $2.4bn.