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GVC Holdings

A gaming powerhouse

Update | Technology | 02 Jan 2018

GVC’s proposed acquisition of Ladbrokes Coral (LCL) will create a leading global multi-brand gaming business, with revenues of c GBP 3.3bn. Completion is expected in late Q1/early Q218. 90% of the enlarged group’s revenues will be derived from locally regulated and/or taxed markets. As witnessed by the successful integration of bwin, GVC is well positioned to deliver material synergies and, regardless of the outcome of the triennial review, the company expects double-digit EPS accretion after the first year. GVC has reported consistently impressive results throughout 2017 and its shares trade appropriately towards the top end of the peer group, at 12.8x EV/EBITDA and 16.4x P/E for 2018e. We introduce new forecasts to reflect the disposal of the Turkish business.

GVC Holdings

Termination of coverage

Update | Travel & Leisure | 24 Nov 2017

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on GVC Holdings (GVC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

GVC Holdings

Exuding confidence - upgrades to come

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 14 Sep 2017

GVC’s H117 results were accompanied by a bullish update for Q317 and positive future indicators. Underlying 20% daily NGR growth in Q317 (to 10 September), combined with continued synergies from the bwin acquisition, should lead to upgrades in consensus estimates. The company is ambitious and well positioned as a consolidator in the gaming industry. Accretive M&A is highly likely in our view. The stock trades appropriately towards the top of its peer group, at consensus 2018e 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 12.9x PE respectively. Our forecasts are currently under review.

GVC Holdings

Full steam ahead

Update | Travel & Leisure | 06 Jul 2017

Excluding Euro 2016 revenues, underlying Q217 daily net gaming revenues (NGR) grew 15%, providing further evidence of GVC’s position as a leading online gaming operator. As showcased during a recent capital markets day, the integration of bwin.party has surpassed management’s initial expectations, with positive KPIs across all divisions. Growth has been achieved through leveraging the powerful proprietary platform and reinvigorating leading brands. Customer migrations should be complete by year end and EUR 125m cost synergies are on track. We have nudged up our 2017 and 2018 forecasts, although we recognise that comparatives into H217 will become tougher. With a robust growth profile, the stock trades towards the top of its peers, at 9.9x EV/EBITDA and 12.5x P/E for 2018e.

GVC Holdings

Integration paying dividends

Update | Travel & Leisure | 03 Apr 2017

With the successful integration of bwin, GVC's FY16 pro forma results delivered strong 9% net gaming revenue (NGR) growth and high underlying cash flow generation. 2017 has started well: group NGR is up 15% ytd, €125m cost synergies are on track and GVC has announced a second special dividend (15.1c). The group's combined scale and diversification has significantly reduced risk, with 69% of revenues derived from regulated and/or taxed markets. The stock trades at 10.5x EV/EBITDA and 14.7x P/E for 2017e, at the top end of its broader peer group.

GVC Holdings

A game changer

Outlook | Travel & Leisure | 18 Jan 2017

GVC’s positive momentum a year on from the bwin deal is demonstrated by encouraging KPIs and the early resumption of dividends. Attainment of the target EUR 125m of cost synergies is well on track, assuming successful platform migrations during H117. Strong cash generation underpins a generous dividend policy (50% payout). The 2017e EV/EBITDA of only 8.8x looks very good value for an ambitious group that is capitalising on industry growth and consolidation opportunities.

GVC Holdings

Success rewarded

Update | Travel & Leisure | 19 Dec 2016

GVC has announced the sale of its payments business Kalixa for EUR 29m, as expected. In addition, and hard on the heels of the increased special dividend for shareholders (announced 15 December), GVC has reported that directors are to receive cash alternative payments in respect of options that have vested. The combined impact is a small (2%) upgrade to our 2017e normalised EPS. GVC goes into 2017 with very strong positive momentum that is still not reflected its EV/EBITDA of 9.6x.

GVC Holdings

Increased special dividend

Update | Travel & Leisure | 15 Dec 2016

GVC has released a positive pre-close update, indicating that results will be at the upper end of market expectations, and has upped the planned 2016 special dividend by 49%, from 10c to 14.9c/share. This confirms excellent momentum in the business, with revenue synergies beginning to augment the bwin cost synergies. We have increased our FY16 EBITDA estimate by £2.4m to £204.5m. Management is delivering on its ambitious targets, yet the 2017e EV/EBITDA is now only 9.2x.

GVC Holdings

Dividends resume ahead of schedule

Update | Travel & Leisure | 03 Nov 2016

GVC is returning to the dividend payers list sooner than expected, with a 10c/share special dividend for 2016. This further demonstrates management's excellent progress integrating bwin and growing the enlarged business. Thereafter, a 50% payout policy implies a yield of over 3% for 2017e. With considerable momentum building in terms of cost-cutting, product enhancements and more focused marketing, we are confident in our growth forecasts (2017e EPS up 80%), on which basis the 2017e EV/EBITDA of 9.5x represents excellent value.

GVC Holdings

Excellent interim results

Update | Travel & Leisure | 20 Sep 2016

GVC's interims demonstrate the rapid progress it is making integrating bwin, with proforma EBITDA up 42%. In a confident statement management believes the group's organic growth potential is greater than originally anticipated; it plans to increase marketing investment to take advantage of new opportunities. Our EPS estimates have increased, as has our 2016 EBITDA forecast (up 3%), but our 2017 EBITDA is unchanged to allow for regulatory and tax headwinds. Management is delivering on its ambitious targets yet the 2017e EV/EBITDA is below the peer group average at 10.1x.

GVC Holdings

Successful refinancing

Update | Travel & Leisure | 04 Aug 2016

GVC's refinancing is a very positive surprise, coming just after its move to a premium listing. Nomura's initial 2% interest rate compares with 12.5% being paid on the Cerberus loan, a big vote of confidence in GVC's early progress integrating its transformational bwin acquisition and paving the way for a resumption of dividend payments in 2017. We have increased our 2017e EPS by 6% to reflect the lower financing charges and expect further positive newsflow with the interim results on 20 September.

GVC Holdings

Q216 trading update - firmly on track

Update | Travel & Leisure | 13 Jul 2016

GVC's July 2016 trading update reveals its early progress after its February acquisition of bwin.party has continued into Q216. Q2 net gaming revenue (NGR) per day rose by 11% y-o-y on a pro-forma basis (+16% on a constant currency basis). Pro-forma H116 NGR was up 8% to €439m (+11% CC) with both GVC and bwin brands delivering growth. Recent operational progress has included a successful application to the Premium Segment of the LSE. Forthcoming challenges to be navigated include the H216 platform migration. However, we believe GVC's positive update underpins our full-year forecasts, which remain unchanged.