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Acarix

Sales volume growth in Q3

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 28 Nov 2018

Acarix’s Q3 results showed a marked upturn in the number of systems sold: seven in Q3 vs eight in H1. Disposable patch sales in Q3 were 680 vs 800 in H1. These sales generated Q3 revenues of SEK351k. We have adjusted our sales forecast upwards to SEK1.3m for the full year 2018. Feedback from German and Swedish customers has been very positive. German public reimbursement might occur in 2019. We do not expect a US launch before 2022 and we assume a US trial starts in 2019 to enable this. Per Persson, formerly commercial officer, has been appointed as CEO. The indicative value remains SEK448m (SEK19.46/share).

Noratis

Growing rapidly

QuickView | Financials | 19 Nov 2018

Noratis is stepping up its ambition to benefit from favourable macrofactors and the clear opportunity in real estate with development potentialin non-core German cities. The asset base (stock book value up 15% in H1at €114m) has seen a sharp acceleration in growth with c 900 unitsacquired since May (under 1,200 units in total at the start of 2018). Theshortfall in H1 results (revenue and adjusted EBIT down by a third) was, asexpected, a matter of timing (likely high-margin asset sales will be H2oriented), so guidance of a rise in full-year profit is maintained, albeit onlower revenue. Solid finances should allow a further generous dividend(6.9% yield 2018e).

German Startups Group

German Startups market goes live

QuickView | Financials | 19 Nov 2018

German Startups Group (GSG) is transforming its business model to anasset manager and an online matchmaking platform for transactions insecondary shares in German start-ups and venture capital (VC) funds. Thiscould potentially create value beyond its existing NAV. Meanwhile, weestimate that (after accounting for post-balance sheet events), GSG'sshares trade at a discount to NAV of 42%. The company opened its tradingplatform on schedule, with the next steps including the launch of the G|STech50 Fund and planned co-operation with SharesPost to open the USmarket to German investors.

Noratis

Building well

Update | Financials | 11 Oct 2018

The shortfall in H1 results (revenue and adjusted EBIT down by a third) should not detract from Noratis’s ambition to benefit from favourable macro factors and clear opportunity in real estate with development potential in non-core German cities. The outturn was, as expected, a matter of timing (likely high-margin asset sales will be H2 oriented), so guidance of a rise in full-year profit is maintained, albeit on lower revenue. For the longer term, the asset base (stock book value up 15% in H1 at EUR 114m) continues to be actively grown with c 900 units acquired since May (under 1,200 units in total at the start of 2018). Solid finances should allow a further generous dividend (6.7% yield 2018e).

Acarix

Sales consistent in H1

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 17 Sep 2018

Acarix’s H1 results show steady sales with eight systems and 800 disposable patches sold to June. These generated H1 revenues of SEK465k with gross profit of SEK349k, a 75% average margin. We now expect sales of just over SEK1m for the full year 2018 before hoped-for German reimbursement in 2019. A new commercial officer, Per Persson, has joined. We do not expect a US launch before 2022 and we assume a US trial starts in 2019. The indicative value remains SEK448m (SEK19.46/share). Additional clinical studies are ongoing.

Acarix

Sales steady in Q1

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 May 2018

Acarix’s Q1 update shows sales of four systems to March. Revenues were SEK230k with gross profit of SEK158k; a gross margin of 69%. We do not expect any major sales upturn in 2018, as the key factor is German government reimbursement, which is not expected before 2019. There is additional sales potential in other European territories. We do not expect a US launch before 2022, but we have assumed a US trial starts in 2019. The indicative value remains at SEK448m (SEK19.46/share). Additional clinical studies are ongoing.

German Startups Group

Expanding the business model

Update | Financials | 29 May 2018

German Startups Group (GSG) is transforming its business model to an asset manager (through dedicated SPVs and an intended investment fund) and an online matchmaking platform for transactions in secondary shares in German start-ups and venture capital (VC) funds (scheduled for launch by the end of Q218). Management believes that this should present a completely new opportunity to create significant shareholder value at relatively low investment costs, given that similar marketplaces have reached standalone valuations beyond GSG’s market cap. A successful transformation could not only allow GSG to close the valuation gap to its NAV (which stands at c 30%), but also allow it to realise additional value.

Acarix

Updated financial position

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 08 May 2018

Acarix’s annual report confirms reported 2017 revenues of SEK638k. Gross profit was SEK430k, with a gross margin rise to 75% in Q4. We do not expect any major sales upturn in 2018, as the key factor is German government reimbursement – this is not expected before 2019. There is additional sales potential in other European territories. We do not expect a US launch before 2022, but we have assumed a US trial starts in 2019. The indicative value remains at SEK448m (SEK19.46/share). Mr Lindholm is the interim CEO. Additional clinical studies are ongoing.

The Marketing Group

Acquisition of German wildcard

Flash note | Media | 29 Nov 2017

The Marketing Group (TMG) has made its first acquisition under the new management team. Although relatively small (FY16 revenues of EUR 1.5m), wildcard fits well with Ranieri Communications, adding to its PR, social and influencer network. wildcard communications brings in a good range of blue-chip clients and opportunities for cross selling. Our FY18e and FY19e earnings estimates are nudged ahead, having being increased by 10% following the Q3 results. Industry interest in TMG’s start-up blockchain-enabled global media agency, Truth, has been very strong. Having spent time sorting out the inherited group, it is clear management is looking for profitable growth, which should lead to an improving rating.

German Startups Group

Specialist German venture capital investor

Initiation | Financials | 01 Jun 2017

German Startups Group is a venture capital investment company that provides investors access to technology start-ups in Germany through a venture capital portfolio of 43 companies. It also has majority ownership of Exozet, a digital agency. Management believes 13 of its companies are ready for exit and, meanwhile, is motivated to realise portfolio gains this year to demonstrate its ability to add value, pay down debt and narrow the shares' 24% discount to NAV. The NAV is likely understated and investors looking for exposure to this sector may find this company of interest.

PPHE Hotel Group

Keeping momentum

Flash note | Travel & Leisure | 09 May 2017

PPHE has consolidated a H216 recovery with a “strong” start to 2017. The 21% like-for-like RevPAR gain in Q1, albeit on weak comparatives and currency-boosted, implies double-digit yield growth in key UK and German markets, which is impressive in uncertain times. Full-year prospects remain positive, boosted by transformative investment in London and Croatia, now the subject of major fundraising by its Arena subsidiary. Potential asset sales and associated return to shareholders, as in 2016, could be a significant catalyst for a share price at a huge discount to real asset value.

Global Bioenergies

France and Germany to part fund industrial pilots

Update | Alternative Energy | 14 Feb 2014

Global Bioenergies (GBE) has secured total funding of €10.9m from French and German state agencies for two industrial scale pilots. The €23m capital increase in July provided the internal resources to fund GBE's investment, while enabling further progress with its butadiene and propylene processes and the start of further new programmes. For example, GBE announced a collaboration with car producer Audi in January, to develop isobutene-derived isooctane, a biofuel suitable for petrol engines. After the recent share price increase, we estimate the market is pricing in a 15% probability of successful isobutene development, at a 16% cost of capital.