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GB Group

Strong underlying growth puts FY18 ahead

Flash note | Technology | 18 Apr 2018

GB Group (GBG) expects to report revenues and EBIT ahead of our forecasts on a strong performance from the fraud management and global electronic verification services. Net cash of GBP 13.4m is also well ahead. This excellent momentum underpins our 12% organic revenue growth forecast in FY19, and the strong balance sheet provides additional support to the group’s buy-and-build strategy.

GB Group

Well positioned in dynamic ID Intelligence market

Outlook | Technology | 28 Feb 2018

GB Group's (GBG) outlook remains strong; the bulk of revenues are now from the faster-growth international service lines, investment in growth is increasing and we see its strength in dynamic ID verification (IDV) as increasingly relevant. We forecast 15% CAGR in EPS to 2020 and see scope for GBG's active M&A strategy to act as a catalyst to further earnings and share price upside.

GB Group

Excellent first half underpins outlook

Update | Technology | 28 Nov 2017

The year-on-year doubling of EBITA in H118 reflects continued strong underlying organic growth at GB Group (GBG), boosted by recent acquisitions and a perpetual licence deal. H2 has started well and forecasts, which are largely unchanged, appear comfortably underpinned. GBG’s consistent organic performance and increasing product innovation support its current rating, meanwhile its buy and build strategy could support further earnings-driven share price upside.

GB Group

Robust H1, short-term boost from licensing

Update | Technology | 24 Oct 2017

GB Group's trading has remained robust in H1. Backing out a £3.5m perpetual licence, underlying organic growth was 12%, consistent with our FY estimates and last year. We leave our estimates unchanged, although the perpetual licence will mean that the year will be less significantly H2 weighted than usual. A strong recurring revenue profile (c 70% in FY17), robust organic growth prospects and an accretive acquisition strategy all justify a premium rating.

Entertainment One

Exceptional charge to restructure Film

Flash note | Media | 12 May 2017

Entertainment One (eOne) has announced that it will incur a one-off £47m exceptional charge related to the restructuring of one of its larger output deals and the accelerated restructuring of the Film division. On an underlying basis, EBITDA for FY17 is in line with previous guidance for strong growth and in line with our forecasts.

Medigene

Funded to execute clinical development strategy

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 12 May 2017

Medigene recently announced a placing of €20.7m gross (issuing 1.96m new shares at €10.55) to intensify its R&D through the expansion of its planned T-cell receptor (TCR) modified T-cells clinical programme. This leaves it well funded (pro forma cash €67.7m) to advance both its DC vaccine programmes and TCR programme. We expect 2017 to be a year of important progress for Medigene, in particular the start of its first company-initiated TCR clinical study. We have increased our rNPV-based valuation to €315m (vs €293m), as we now include the cash from the fund-raising and have rolled the model forward.

Paion

On track for two filings by mid-2018

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 12 May 2017

Paion has completed patient recruitment in its pivotal bronchoscopy study of its ultra-fast-acting sedative remimazolam. Results are likely by mid-2017 and, if positive, would put it on track to file for US approval for procedural sedation in mid-2018. Paion is also preparing a dossier for a filing for general anaesthesia (GA) in Japan in a similar time frame. It has also outlined a programme that could see it restart Phase III studies in GA in Europe (estimated cost €20-25m). Paion has sufficient cash to fund operations beyond end 2018, but would need additional funds to complete the Europe development programme. We leave our valuation unchanged at €214m ahead of the key bronchoscopy trial results.

Nanoco Group

Quantum leap

Initiation | Technology | 11 May 2017

We believe that factors are finally aligning to support adoption of Nanoco's quantum dots in the 250m+ unit per year TV and computer display markets. With a large addressable market and an operationally geared model, it does not take aggressive assumptions for earnings to scale and the rating to look very inexpensive. We believe a substantial re-rating upwards would be justified as support for our estimates builds.

Marshall Motor Holdings

Driving transformational growth

Initiation | Automotive Retailers | 11 May 2017

As Marshall Motor (MMH) celebrates the second anniversary of its flotation on AIM, it can reflect positively on the continuation of its strong growth record, which has driven it to rank seventh among UK automotive retailing groups. The strong brand coverage and excellent relationships with major manufacturers should continue to deliver growth opportunities, despite potentially tougher market conditions. Our fair value for MMH currently stands at 214p per share.

Formycon

Building a pipeline of third-wave biosimilars

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 May 2017

Formycon has reported FY16 financial results that highlight the progress of its biosimilars pipeline. During 2016 partner Bioeq IP AG started a global Phase III study of Lucentis biosimilar FYB201 for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD); US and EU launches are planned for 2020 and 2022. Formycon disclosed that FYB203 is a proposed biosimilar of Eylea in preclinical studies. It targets all biologics in the nAMD market, which had revenues of $8.2bn in 2016. The company recently disclosed that FYB202 is a biosimilar of Stelara. Cash at end 2016 was €14m.

GB Group

PCA acquisition an excellent fit

Update | Technology | 11 May 2017

The acquisition of PCA Predict is an excellent fit with GB Group's (GBG) address intelligence services, adding SME reach and, combined with Matchcode360 and Loqate, providing GBG with the most complete offer in the industry. GBG has closed a £58m placing to fund the £66m acquisition (EV), which it will supplement with existing cash and debt. Despite the planned increase in investment to expand PCA outside the UK, the deal should be earnings enhancing and we upgrade our FY18 and FY19 EPS forecasts by 8.5% and 10.4%, respectively.

GB Group

CEO to retire; leaves GBG in good shape

Update | Technology | 20 Apr 2016

GB Group's (GBG) CEO Richard Law has announced his intention to retire. He will remain at GBG for as long as required to ensure a smooth transition to a new CEO once appointed. He will be leaving the group in good shape; 27% of revenues are now from the strategically important international markets and the year-end trading update points to strong momentum, with FY16 EBITA 11% ahead of our forecasts.