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Borussia Dortmund

Bumps in the road

Outlook | Travel & Leisure | 10 Apr 2018

While longstanding brand and financial strengths hold true, Borussia Dortmund (BVB) is currently bedevilled by uncertainties. Some, such as the absence of a permanent coach and Champions League qualification, may be temporary. Potentially more challenging is the conflict between sporting and financial aims, given an apparent increased reliance on transfer gains (investor concern at the sale of exceptional goal-scorer Aubameyang is telling). However, there is undeniable reassurance in the scale of the surplus of market value to net player assets (broadly, c EUR 240m per www.transfermarkt.de), further lively transfer inflation and BVB’s prized development record. Moreover, finances remain resolutely robust.

Borussia Dortmund

Finding its feet

Update | Travel & Leisure | 06 Mar 2018

While arguably riding its luck of late, Borussia Dortmund (BVB) is well-placed to exploit immediate Bundesliga and Europa League opportunities. However, there is minimal room for error in terms of prized Champions League qualification, the driver of our forecast improvement in FY19 operational profit (in Bundesliga just four points separate the second place from sixth and BVB is ranked only fourth since the winter break). To its credit, BVB’s Q2 financial performance was much more assured than on the field, with steady revenue and slightly lower EBITDA without the buttress of transfers. The rise in our current-year forecast is due wholly to January transfers (notably Aubameyang), further proof of Dortmund’s ability to generate substantial hidden reserves.

Borussia Dortmund

Christmas comes early

Update | Travel & Leisure | 19 Dec 2017

Immediate back-to-back Bundesliga wins under new coach Peter Stöger is at least a welcome change of fortune for beleaguered Dortmund. Now the winter break allows for renewed stability and the return of key players. The team remains very much in the mix for UEFA competition next season, while a deep run in the current Europa League may significantly make up for a premature Champions League exit, as evident in our newly-introduced minor downgrades. Recent Q1 results show the success of Dortmund’s transfer policy, which is generating substantial hidden reserves in player values. Quarterly EBITDA of EUR 81.4m, driven by the remarkable sale of Dembélé to Barcelona, provides ample scope for reinvestment and alone all but guarantees a record outturn this year.

Borussia Dortmund

Plenty in reserve

Update | Travel & Leisure | 04 Oct 2017

Borussia Dortmund enters the international break in good heart as wire-to-wire leaders of the Bundesliga after a record start to the season (19 points after seven games). It is early days but confirmation of a favourable reaction to new coach Peter Bosz and key player signings even if found wanting at the highest level in recent Champions League. A positive annual report and the remarkable sale of Dembélé to Barcelona further prompt us to raise substantially our current-year forecast. For FY19 we are confident that Dortmund's conspicuously successful development record and transfer policy as well as initial benefits from Champions League reform should generate another strong outturn, even if Dembélé makes FY18 a hard act to follow.

Borussia Dortmund

Hitting form

Update | Travel & Leisure | 16 Mar 2017

Although in transition after high-profile player departures, Borussia Dortmund (BVB) continues to compete well on all fronts. Its financial performance is similarly spirited with a near doubling in H1 pre-transfer EBITDA, driven by the Champions League. However, costs remain an issue, so we are maintaining our full-year pre-transfer EBITDA forecast despite better than expected progress in Europe. Apart from a new deal on Bundesliga media rights, FY18 should benefit from a significantly lower player cost base, hence our €8m EBITDA upgrade and forecast bumper cash generation (over €100m net cash at June 2018), which provides ample scope for profitable investment and returns to shareholders.

Borussia Dortmund

Giving their all

QuickView | Travel & Leisure | 08 Nov 2016

Ahead of Q1 results on 11 November, a broadly positive start to the seasonconfirms coach Tuchel's successful record of squad development afterhigh-profile departures. Renewed strength in depth and typically attractivestyle of play complement escalating scope for transfer gains. Despiteinflationary wage pressure, we look for a doubling this year in pre-transferEBITDA (our key metric), albeit from a reduced base (FY16 pre-transferEBITDA was slightly below our expectations). A new lucrative deal onBundesliga media rights drives FY18 growth prospects, assumingcontinued Champions League. Finances remain impressively disciplined.

Borussia Dortmund

Warming up

Update | Travel & Leisure | 05 Oct 2016

A broadly positive start to the season both at home and in the Champions League confirms coach Tuchel's successful record of squad development after high-profile departures. Renewed strength in depth and typically attractive style of play complement escalating scope for transfer gains. Despite inflationary wage pressure we still look for a doubling this year in pre-transfer EBITDA (our key metric), albeit from a reduced base (FY16 pre-transfer EBITDA was slightly below our expectations). A new lucrative deal on Bundesliga media rights drives FY18 growth prospects, assuming continued Champions League. Finances remain impressively disciplined.

Borussia Dortmund

Fresh start

Update | Travel & Leisure | 15 Jul 2016

While the simultaneous loss of key players Hummels, Mkhitaryan and Gündogan necessarily invites caution, coach Tuchel's record of player development and the availability of significant funds for reinvestment make for exciting opportunity. Understandably, given squad rebuilding, financial implications are uncertain. However, assuming maintained positive sporting prospects and further c €40m player spend, we still look for a doubling in pre-transfer EBITDA (our key metric) in FY17, albeit from a reduced base in the face of inflationary wage pressure (we are lowering EBITDA forecasts by €6m for FY16 and by €13m for the year just started).

Borussia Dortmund

The price of success

Update | Travel & Leisure | 11 Mar 2016

While maintained revenue in H116 was no mean feat without the Champions League, pre-transfer EBITDA (our key metric) was a casualty(-59%) of much higher than expected costs, driven by the team's outstanding performance. With inflationary wage pressure unlikely to abate in the face of continued success, we are lowering our EBITDA forecasts by €10m and €12m for FY16 and FY17. However, we are encouraged that Dortmund's current runaway second place in the Bundesliga, with just a quarter of the season to go, justifies confidence in a possible step change in returns in FY17, assuming Champions League qualification. We still look for a doubling in pre-transfer EBITDA, albeit from the newly reduced base, and strong cash generation for player investment. Finances remain typically disciplined.

Borussia Dortmund

Meeting its goals

QuickView | Travel & Leisure | 09 Nov 2015

Ahead of Q1 results on 13 November, a positive annual report and continued on-field success reinforce confidence in our current-year forecasts and a possible step change in returns in FY17, assuming Champions League qualification. Forecasts for next year suggest a neardoubling in pre-transfer EBITDA (our key metric) and strong cash generation for player investment (we estimate €74m net cash at June 2017). An EV/EBITDA (pre-transfer) of 5x FY17e seems to ignore the longterm potential of powerful brand development and valuable media rights.

Borussia Dortmund

Coming into range

Update | Travel & Leisure | 22 Oct 2015

A positive annual report and continued on-field success reinforce confidence in our current-year forecasts and a possible step-change in returns in FY17, assuming Champions League qualification. Indeed, forecasts we are now introducing for next year suggest a near-doubling in pre-transfer EBITDA (our key metric) and strong cash generation for player investment (we estimate €74m net cash at June 2017). An EV/EBITDA (pre-transfer) of under 5x FY17e appears to ignore the long-term potential of such powerful brand development and valuable media rights.

Borussia Dortmund

Tip top

Update | Travel & Leisure | 27 Aug 2015

As we expected, higher costs, driven by H2 on-field recovery, ensured thatFY15 pre-transfer EBITDA increased only thanks to a Champions Leaguerevenue loss insurance claim (€11.8m). However, we continue to beencouraged by top-line buoyancy and the prospect of underlying profitresilience in FY16, despite no Champions League. Victory in all sixcompetitive games this season shows a very favourable reaction to newcoach Thomas Tuchel. We will fully review our forecasts on confirmation ofEuropa League group stage participation and release of the annual report.