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Agile and responsive

Outlook | Aerospace & Defence | 13 Dec 2017

Cohort continues to make progress in a tough UK defence trading environment. Our earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged as performances at MASS and EID continue ahead of expectations, compensating for pressures at MCL and SEA. Our fair value calculation currently stands at 483p implying significant unrecognised potential. The recent share price fall seems unwarranted given the maintained outlook.


Going to plan

Flash note | Aerospace & Defence | 28 Nov 2017

Cohort has announced that it has increased its holding in EID to 80% from 57% for the additional consideration of EUR 3.97m from existing cash resources and debt facilities. The Portuguese government retains the remaining 20% and this is all in line with its previously announced strategy. EID brings new geographies, a good order pipeline and further growth opportunities. In addition, the company has indicated that it remains on course to meet FY18 expectations. HY18 results will be published on 13 December when we will adjust our forecasts for the increased holding.

UMT United Mobility Technology

Stepping out into B2C payments & blockchain

Outlook | Technology | 28 Nov 2017

As a result of its work with leading retailers in the Payback loyalty scheme, UMT is Germany’s largest provider of white-label mPay services. Earlier this year the group took a decisive step into the B2C arena with the acquisition of prelado, an online German mobile phone top-up retailer. UMT plans to leverage its mPay know-how and retail contacts to drive an expansion of prelado’s product range as well as to extend prelado’s reach into other major EU countries. The group has also recently reached an agreement with solarisBank of Berlin to allow it to provide customers with full banking services as well as signing an MoU with blockchain specialist Coinsilium, to explore the use of blockchain technology in its service areas. UMT shares currently trade in line with the mPay small-cap sector on current year estimates. EV/revenues, and the current price implies free cash flow growth of 13.6% from 2021 in our reverse DCF analysis.


Encouraging order development

Flash note | Aerospace & Defence | 04 Oct 2018

The announcement of a EUR 4.8m vehicle communications contract win for the Portuguese Army is in addition to the prospects indicated at the AGM on 11 September. It suggests that positive order book momentum is building as we approach the H118 period end. The shares have continued to perform well since the prelims in July, but remain on a relatively undemanding FY20e P/E of 12.5x.

International Stem Cell

Biomedical sales more than double

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Aug 2018

International Stem Cell (ISCO) reported Q218 revenues of $3.0m, up 72.4% compared to Q217 mainly due to the biomedical business, which had quarterly revenues of $2.7m, up 103.1% compared to the same quarter last year. The operating profit of the biomedical business also increased substantially, up 139.6% to $1.1m. With regard to the Phase I trial of ISC-hpNSC in Parkinson’s disease (PD), the company has successfully dosed the first patient of the third cohort and expects to release interim six-month results from the second cohort in Q318.

Sunesis Pharmaceuticals

Interim readout coming up

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 17 Aug 2018

Sunesis has reported Q2 earnings and provided an update on enrolment in its ongoing dose escalation study of vecabrutinib. It continues to enrol the 50mg cohort and will announce when it is complete. The company also stated that it intended to provide an update on the program at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting in December 2018.


Marching on

Update | Aerospace & Defence | 03 Jul 2018

Cohort has delivered better than-expected operating profit growth in FY18 as it continues to address the changing dynamics of its end markets. The company believes that the decline in the order book represents delays rather than a reduction in demand and, if this is the case, 2018/19 presents exciting business prospects. Cohort continues to invest and address new business areas while further acquisition presents an opportunity.

International Stem Cell

Third cohort ready to go

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 06 Jun 2018

International Stem Cell (ISCO) recently announced that the data safety monitoring board for its Phase I trial of ISC-hpNSC in Parkinson's disease (PD) has authorized the enrollment of the third cohort of four patients. The study has already enrolled eight patients at the 30m and 50m cell levels and will now enroll patients at the 70m cell level. Recruitment will begin immediately. The company announced interim six-month results from the first cohort of four patients in November and we expect additional data from this as well as the second cohort in the coming months.

Sunesis Pharmaceuticals

On track with vecabrutinib

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 May 2018

On the Q118 conference call, Sunesis provided an update of its ongoing vecabrutinib Phase Ib/II trial. The study is continuing to enrol the 50mg cohort in the dose-ranging Phase I portion of the study. This cohort was previously expanded to six patients per the protocol due to an adverse event, but no further dose-limiting events have been reported. The company reiterated guidance that the dose ranging would be complete in autumn 2018 and that it will present preliminary efficacy data at a medical conference.

International Stem Cell

Moving forward in Parkinsons and TBI

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 14 May 2018

International Stem Cell (ISCO) is an early-stage cell therapy company currently in clinical trials to treat Parkinson’s disease (PD). In November, the company presented interim six-month results from the first cohort of four patients in its Phase I trial of ISC-hpNSC in PD. Positive signals were seen in a variety of measures, which include daily living, mobility, depression and compulsive disorders.


Progressing to plan

Update | Aerospace & Defence | 30 Apr 2018

The relative de-rating of Cohort against its peers since its interim results in December seems somewhat anomalous. The company looks set to maintain solid progress in FY18, which is now coming to a close. Peers in the UK defence sector have continued to face issues that do not directly read across to Cohort. While the UK defence funding environment remains uncertain at present, there appear to be some indications that a more favourable perspective may be developing following recent events. We maintain our forecasts and our fair value currently stands at 508p.

Sunesis Pharmaceuticals

A slight delay

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Mar 2018

On the YE FY17 conference call, the company provided revised guidance on the dosing portion of its ongoing Phase Ib/II study of vecabrutinib (SNS-062) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other B-cell cancers. The final dose is expected to be reached in fall 2018 (revised from mid-2018) due to an on-protocol expansion of the second (50mg) dosing cohort because of a dose-limiting adverse event (AE). At this time we do not consider this delay or the AE to be material to the success of the program.