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Cohort

Agile and responsive

Outlook | Aerospace & Defence | 13 Dec 2017

Cohort continues to make progress in a tough UK defence trading environment. Our earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged as performances at MASS and EID continue ahead of expectations, compensating for pressures at MCL and SEA. Our fair value calculation currently stands at 483p implying significant unrecognised potential. The recent share price fall seems unwarranted given the maintained outlook.

Cohort

Going to plan

Flash note | Aerospace & Defence | 28 Nov 2017

Cohort has announced that it has increased its holding in EID to 80% from 57% for the additional consideration of EUR 3.97m from existing cash resources and debt facilities. The Portuguese government retains the remaining 20% and this is all in line with its previously announced strategy. EID brings new geographies, a good order pipeline and further growth opportunities. In addition, the company has indicated that it remains on course to meet FY18 expectations. HY18 results will be published on 13 December when we will adjust our forecasts for the increased holding.

UMT United Mobility Technology

Stepping out into B2C payments & blockchain

Outlook | Technology | 28 Nov 2017

As a result of its work with leading retailers in the Payback loyalty scheme, UMT is Germany’s largest provider of white-label mPay services. Earlier this year the group took a decisive step into the B2C arena with the acquisition of prelado, an online German mobile phone top-up retailer. UMT plans to leverage its mPay know-how and retail contacts to drive an expansion of prelado’s product range as well as to extend prelado’s reach into other major EU countries. The group has also recently reached an agreement with solarisBank of Berlin to allow it to provide customers with full banking services as well as signing an MoU with blockchain specialist Coinsilium, to explore the use of blockchain technology in its service areas. UMT shares currently trade in line with the mPay small-cap sector on current year estimates. EV/revenues, and the current price implies free cash flow growth of 13.6% from 2021 in our reverse DCF analysis.

Sunesis Pharmaceuticals

A slight delay

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 13 Mar 2018

On the YE FY17 conference call, the company provided revised guidance on the dosing portion of its ongoing Phase Ib/II study of vecabrutinib (SNS-062) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other B-cell cancers. The final dose is expected to be reached in fall 2018 (revised from mid-2018) due to an on-protocol expansion of the second (50mg) dosing cohort because of a dose-limiting adverse event (AE). At this time we do not consider this delay or the AE to be material to the success of the program.

International Stem Cell

Interim Parkinson's data

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 03 Jan 2018

International Stem Cell recently announced interim six-month results from the first cohort of four patients in its Phase I trial of ISC-hpNSC in Parkinson’s disease (PD). Positive signals were seen in a variety of measures, which include daily living, mobility, depression and compulsive disorders. The trial is continuing and the second cohort is almost enrolled, with the third patient of four recently undergoing surgical implantation. The study will enroll 12 patients at three dosing regimens (30-70m cells).

Immutep

Encouraging LAG-3 combo data at SITC

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 12 Dec 2017

Prima BioMed has changed its name to Immutep Limited following shareholder approval in November. It reported an encouraging 33% preliminary response rate from the first two cohorts of the TACTI-mel trial of IMP321 (eftilagimod alpha) in combination with Keytruda in melanoma patients who had not achieved a meaningful therapeutic benefit from Keytruda monotherapy. The 33% response rate is double the rate we would have anticipated had these patients continued on Keytruda alone, and suggests that IMP321 is working as expected to boost immune responses when combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The final cohort is expected to be fully recruited by Q417, and efficacy data from all three cohorts are expected in Q218. Our valuation is unchanged at $206m or $8.75/ADR.

Immutep

Encouraging LAG-3 combo data at SITC

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 Dec 2017

Prima BioMed has changed its name to Immutep Limited following shareholder approval in November. It reported an encouraging 33% preliminary response rate from the first two cohorts of the TACTI-mel trial of IMP321 (eftilagimod alpha) in combination with Keytruda in melanoma patients who had not achieved a meaningful therapeutic benefit from Keytruda monotherapy. The 33% response rate is double the rate we would have anticipated had these patients continued on Keytruda alone, and suggests that IMP321 is working as expected to boost immune responses when combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The final cohort is expected to be fully recruited by Q417, and efficacy data from all three cohorts are expected in Q218. Our valuation is unchanged at A$272m (12c per share).

Viralytics

Looking towards pivotal Cavatak combo studies

Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 05 Dec 2017

Viralytics continues to report impressive preliminary data for Cavatak in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), whether administered intravenously (iv) or by intra-tumoural injection. Viralytics is currently recruiting additional patients in expansion cohorts in melanoma, lung and bladder cancers in order to obtain more robust estimates of tumour response rates. It has announced plans to initiate four Phase I studies in additional indications and has commenced planning for a potential pivotal study of Cavatak plus Yervoy in melanoma patients who had failed prior single-agent, anti-PD1 ICI therapy, a serious unmet medical need. Updates on MITCI, CAPRA and Keynote 200 are expected in Q218. We increase our valuation to A$469m or A$1.95/share (vs A$408m and A$1.70/share).

Selvita

Clinical hold on SEL24

Flash note | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 09 Oct 2017

On 7 October 2017, Selvita announced that the FDA has placed a full clinical hold on the company’s open-label, dose escalation Phase I/II clinical trial with SEL24 (dual PIM/FLT3 kinase inhibitor) in patients with relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (r/r AML). The decision was based on a fatal haemorrhagic stroke after venous thrombosis in one patient enrolled in the last cohort 5 in part 1 of the study designed to establish the recommended dose. The adverse event was classified as possibly related to the study treatment, which prompted the FDA to issue the clinical hold.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 Phase II on track to commence Q417

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 Sep 2017

Novogen is on track to commence a Phase II trial of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma in Q4 CY17, in line with previous guidance. It plans to meet with the FDA to discuss trial design as it finalises preparations for the study. A Phase I trial of Cantrixil in ovarian cancer is well underway, with initial data expected in late 2017 or early 2018 – efficacy data from an expansion cohort at the MTD are likely in H2 CY18. We lift our valuation range slightly to between A$87m and A$152m (A$0.18-0.31 per share), while noting that additional funds may be needed in FY18.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 Phase II on track to commence Q417

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 Sep 2017

Novogen is on track to commence a Phase II trial of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma in Q4 CY17, in line with previous guidance. It plans to meet with the FDA to discuss trial design as it finalizes preparations for the study. A Phase I trial of Cantrixil in ovarian cancer is well underway, with initial data expected in late 2017 or early 2018 – efficacy data from an expansion cohort at the MTD are likely in H2 CY18. We lift our valuation range slightly to between $69m and $120m ($14.24-24.81 per ADR), while noting that additional funds may be needed in FY18.

Cohort

Marching on

Update | Aerospace & Defence | 05 Jul 2017

Cohort's earnings performance in FY17 once again exceeded our expectations. Stronger performances from EID and MCL more than outweighed the sharp contraction at SCS, where a swift response from management has already improved profitability. The cash performance was also better than expected and the dividend increase to 7.1p was also ahead of our forecast. We expect further solid progress in the current year, and our fair value estimate currently stands at 471p.