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Allium Medical Solutions

Wirion approved by FDA; new stents in Europe

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 26 Apr 2018

Allium has announced FDA approval of its subsidiary Gardia’s Wirion, which has become the only embolic protection system approved for all atherectomy procedures. Allium has reported FY17 results, with revenues up 5% y-o-y to NIS7.7m, and announced its first order in Mexico for NIS300k and approval of some of its stents in Russia. However, registration of the remaining stents and IBI Medical (EndoFast soft tissue fixation) in Mexico and Russia and stents in China has been delayed; we believe approval is possible in 2018. Mexico, Russia and China are the bulk of the distribution deals (NIS132m) and delays are the major reason for the slight decline in our valuation to NIS1.64/share (NIS1.68/share previously).

TerraNet

China calling

Update | Technology | 04 Apr 2018

TerraNet’s 2017 earnings show the group continuing to move closer to generating licence revenues from its technology portfolio, while keeping a tight control over costs. China is proving a key market for the group: Chinese tech giants, Tencent Gaming and Alipay, and cellphone manufacturers, Oppo and Vivo, are shortly to begin trialling TerraNet’s software. Furthermore, the recent launch of the Android Oreo 8.1 operating system should enable the group to resume its launch of proximal connectivity SDKs in China later this year. Year-end cash reserves were SEK62.4m ($7.6m). Our forecasts suggest this will be sufficient to fund the business until late 2018. Helped by lower than forecast cash burn in 2017 and the prospect of lower capex and WC outflows, we have increased our valuation range for the shares from SEK12.6-14.4 to SEK13.4-15.4.

China Aviation Oil (Singapore)

Traffic growth supporting demand

Update | Industrial Support Services | 29 Mar 2018

FY17 saw record core trading volumes, driven by continued strong demand in jet fuel markets and diversification into other oil products. While margin optimisation execution was more difficult in H217 as markets moved into backwardation, gross margins remained positive and partially recovered from the Q3 low by the year end. Combined with the improved associates’ contribution driven by strong air transport growth in China, prospects for renewed progress in FY18 are encouraging. The healthy balance sheet also positions the group to pursue development of its supply chain infrastructure globally, especially growth opportunities aligned with China’s One Belt, One Road trade route to Europe initiative. Our fair value currently stands at S$1.82.

Marlborough Wine Estates Group

Half year preliminary results

Update | Food & Drink | 05 Mar 2018

Marlborough Wine Estates Group (MWE) is targeting development of premium New Zealand (NZ) wine brands in China and, increasingly, internationally. The global market is strong and the popularity of quality NZ wine is growing. MWE continues to work to expand market share in China and is exploring US, Japanese, Australian, UK and Canadian markets. In this context, early inroads into the US and Japan are encouraging.

Windar Photonics

Harnessing the wind more effectively

Outlook | Alternative Energy | 23 Feb 2018

Windar’s patented low-cost, nacelle-mounted wind measurement system increases wind turbine efficiency and reduces operational wear. This is attractive to independent power producers (IPPs) and wind turbine OEMs as the constant change in power tariffs and government subsidies means there is increased emphasis on minimising the total cost of energy through increasing productivity per turbine and extending turbine life. Windar already has over 250 pilot installations worldwide. We reinstate our estimates, with deliveries now reaching c 5k units in FY20, rather than FY19 previously. The announcement in December of a transformational contract for 300 LiDAR for volume installation on wind parks in China gives greater confidence that the industry is finally beginning to adopt Windar’s proposition of integrating LiDAR into individual wind turbines.

QEX Logistics

Tapping into Chinese growth

Initiation | Industrial Support Services | 15 Feb 2018

QEX Logistics is a New Zealand-based logistics company that facilitates the growing direct trade between New Zealand/Australia and China. As a key bridge between the two countries into China, QEX has quickly established itself as a trusted supplier of services to enable the swift and economic export of dairy products and health supplements. Future plans to diversify its product range and replicate its model in Australia provide significant growth opportunities. Ronnie Xue, the young, entrepreneurial CEO (who retains 80% of shares), is helped by an experienced and strong set of independent directors, including Conor English and Danny Chan.

China Water Affairs Group

Strong growth trajectory continues

Update | General Industrials | 24 Jan 2018

The H118 results and publication of the full interim report confirmed China Water Affairs Group's (CWA) strong growth trajectory. In our view the outlook for the company remains positive. We have increased our EPS and DPS forecasts for CWA and raised our fair value from HK$6.7/share to HK$8.0/share.

Allium Medical Solutions

It is all about business execution

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 02 Jan 2018

Gardia Medical’s Wirion device is on track for FDA submission, expected by end-2017; approval is possible in Q218. If approved, it would become the only embolic protection system for all atherectomy procedures in the legs which we think will help to reach a strategic transaction. Furthermore, Allium Stents and IBI Medical are expected to gain approval in Russia in 2018 while approval in China is expected in early 2018. We expect initial revenues from Mexico in Q417 and from the strategic agreement in Russia in H118. In addition, Allevetix is due to start a clinical trial in the next few months and TruLeaf is progressing its large animals study. Our updated valuation is NIS1.68/share.

Basilea Pharmaceutica

Pfizer Cresemba deal extended to Asia and China

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 07 Dec 2017

Basilea has announced an extension to its licence agreement with Pfizer (PFE) for Cresemba (for invasive fungal infections). The original deal granted PFE exclusive commercialisation rights to the product in Europe (ex-Nordics), Russia, Turkey and Israel and the new amendment includes China and 16 countries within Asia Pacific. The extension of Cresemba’s global footprint at this stage highlights PFE’s commitment to the product in areas outside of Europe. Concomitantly Basilea has updated its guidance for FY17 to a reduced operating loss of CHF1m per month vs CHF2m per month. Our valuation rises slightly to CHF1,222m.

Oceania Natural

New focus on quality and ethical products

Update | Consumer Support Services | 05 Dec 2017

Oceania Natural (ONL) is an early-stage New Zealand company involved in producing and distributing food and drink products. It sources products from New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, and sells both domestically and into its key market, the People's Republic of China. In H118, ONL has been developing its routes to market for key products of water and Noni juice.

Entertainment One

PJ Masks catching Peppa

Update | Media | 21 Nov 2017

eOne’s H118 results delivered a 36% increase in EBITDA driven by an outstanding performance in Family with Peppa Pig making its mark in China and the rapid global roll out of PJ Masks establishing it as a global brand. Management has reiterated that the company is on track to deliver full year expectations; we have updated our forecasts for mix effects but leave our overall EBITDA forecast unchanged.

Ciech

Turnaround success, but supply risks ahead

QuickView | General Industrials | 20 Nov 2017

The positive effect from incremental volumes under the Soda +200 project on Ciech's 9M17 earnings was offset by lower soda ash prices and raw materials cost inflation. More recently, soda spot prices in China have risen amid local supply curbs. However, supply from Ciner's new facilities in Turkey may put pressure on 2018 contract prices. Ciech's competitive response includes focus on product quality, strengthening the logistics chain and client relationships, as well as extending contract length. The company also aims to further improve product portfolio diversification. Ciech's shares trade on a 2017e P/E of 8.1x, c 40% below its peer group.