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Allium Medical Solutions

It is all about business execution

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 02 Jan 2018

Gardia Medical’s Wirion device is on track for FDA submission, expected by end-2017; approval is possible in Q218. If approved, it would become the only embolic protection system for all atherectomy procedures in the legs which we think will help to reach a strategic transaction. Furthermore, Allium Stents and IBI Medical are expected to gain approval in Russia in 2018 while approval in China is expected in early 2018. We expect initial revenues from Mexico in Q417 and from the strategic agreement in Russia in H118. In addition, Allevetix is due to start a clinical trial in the next few months and TruLeaf is progressing its large animals study. Our updated valuation is NIS1.68/share.

Basilea Pharmaceutica

Pfizer Cresemba deal extended to Asia and China

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 07 Dec 2017

Basilea has announced an extension to its licence agreement with Pfizer (PFE) for Cresemba (for invasive fungal infections). The original deal granted PFE exclusive commercialisation rights to the product in Europe (ex-Nordics), Russia, Turkey and Israel and the new amendment includes China and 16 countries within Asia Pacific. The extension of Cresemba’s global footprint at this stage highlights PFE’s commitment to the product in areas outside of Europe. Concomitantly Basilea has updated its guidance for FY17 to a reduced operating loss of CHF1m per month vs CHF2m per month. Our valuation rises slightly to CHF1,222m.

Oceania Natural

New focus on quality and ethical products

Update | Consumer Support Services | 05 Dec 2017

Oceania Natural (ONL) is an early-stage New Zealand company involved in producing and distributing food and drink products. It sources products from New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, and sells both domestically and into its key market, the People's Republic of China. In H118, ONL has been developing its routes to market for key products of water and Noni juice.

Entertainment One

PJ Masks catching Peppa

Update | Media | 21 Nov 2017

eOne’s H118 results delivered a 36% increase in EBITDA driven by an outstanding performance in Family with Peppa Pig making its mark in China and the rapid global roll out of PJ Masks establishing it as a global brand. Management has reiterated that the company is on track to deliver full year expectations; we have updated our forecasts for mix effects but leave our overall EBITDA forecast unchanged.

Ciech

Turnaround success, but supply risks ahead

QuickView | General Industrials | 20 Nov 2017

The positive effect from incremental volumes under the Soda +200 project on Ciech's 9M17 earnings was offset by lower soda ash prices and raw materials cost inflation. More recently, soda spot prices in China have risen amid local supply curbs. However, supply from Ciner's new facilities in Turkey may put pressure on 2018 contract prices. Ciech's competitive response includes focus on product quality, strengthening the logistics chain and client relationships, as well as extending contract length. The company also aims to further improve product portfolio diversification. Ciech's shares trade on a 2017e P/E of 8.1x, c 40% below its peer group.

Centrale del Latte d'Italia

Recovery continues

Update | Food & Drink | 15 Nov 2017

Centrale del Latte d'Italia's (CLI) price increases o which were successfully implemented during H1 o continue to drive the recovery. Underlying sales growth excluding M&A was an impressive 14% during Q317, and EBITDA margin more than doubled from 2.0% in Q316 to 5.4% in Q317. Revenue synergies continue to feature following the acquisition of CLF, as cross-selling of products across the CLI platform continues to contribute to growth. In October CLI announced that it had signed an agreement with Alibaba to sell its UHT milk online to Chinese consumers. While we have cut our near-term estimates to reflect recent increases in raw material costs, we raise our medium-term revenue growth by 100bp to capture the potential growth opportunity in China. Our fair value rises to €3.25/share (from €2.94 previously).

Foresight Autonomous Holdings

Associate Rail Vision looking at Nasdaq listing

Flash note | Technology | 13 Nov 2017

Foresight’s (FRSX) 24.8%-owned associate, Rail Vision (RV), has announced that it is considering a Nasdaq listing. RV is one of relatively few developers of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) for the rail industry and it has had a number of successful trials of its 1.5km range obstacle identification systems with major European railways. We therefore see strong potential for future sales of its ADAS, as well as attractive revenue streams from big data collected from its train-mounted equipment. In our recent note on Foresight, Well placed for China’s coming ADAS revolution, published on 31 October 2017, we valued RV at $79.3m (see discussion below), equating to $19.6m or NIS0.65 per FRSX share for Foresight’s stake. With increased accounts and management transparency, we see potential for the market to derive a significantly higher DCF-based value for RV with positive impact for FRSX’s valuation.

China Aviation Oil (Singapore)

Strong volumes in tougher trading environment

Update | Industrial Support Services | 12 Nov 2017

Q3 results reflected the combined impact on gross margin of the core trading operation due to a return to a backwardation situation in product markets, as well as supply disruptions. More positively, SPIA and the other associates made a stronger contribution. With adverse trading conditions expected to persist for a period of time, management’s strategy to reduce volatility is being tested. The key growth drivers of increasing air traffic and an expanding geographic footprint continue to increase trading volumes and augur well for the future. Maintenance of profitability at a lower margin level while backwardation conditions persist should be offset by stronger growth from SPIA next year, but we now assume a more subdued expansion of the core business. The balance sheet remains supportive of further strategic M&A to facilitate growth. Our fair value falls to S$1.88 from S$2.11.

Foresight Autonomous Holdings

Well placed for China’s coming ADAS revolution

Outlook | Technology | 31 Oct 2017

Foresight Autonomous (FRSX) is a developer of solutions for advanced driver assistance (ADAS) and fully autonomous (FA) driving applications, based on stereo and quadric camera algorithms. It has completed its daytime ADAS proof of concept and successfully completed three pilot trials with major Chinese OEMs. At the same time China has adopted new regulations, which should rapidly boost take-up of ADAS systems. FRSX also plans to develop an aftermarket driver alert system for sale in the subsidised Israeli market as well as abroad. Associate, Rail Vision, is also forging ahead as an ADAS pioneer in the rail sector, helped by successful trials. With greater market share and market growth prospects in China, we have increased our DCF valuation from NIS3.45 to NIS5.15 per share.

Hutchison China MediTech

WCLC highlights savolitinib combination potential

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 19 Oct 2017

Data presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) on combination approaches to treat resistant EGFR-driven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) highlight a widening of the patient population that could be eligible to receive savolitinib in combination with either Tagrisso or Iressa. Partner AZN now has the data set to make a decision on global Phase III trials and evaluate breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) potential in both 2L and 3L EGFR-resistant NSCLC; in our view, data to date supports both. BTD could offer earlier entry into the US market. Furthermore, Phase II data presented on fruquintinib in combination with Iressa (first line EGFRm NSCLC) showed encouraging efficacy and acceptable safety. We place our forecasts and valuation under review as we revisit our peak sales assumptions.

TerraNet

Orders in industrial IoT/Qualcomm delays

Update | Technology | 18 Oct 2017

TerraNet shares have performed strongly since the IPO, supported by a steady stream of new customer announcements and solid progress with our milestone targets. These included completing V2V and IoT software development kits as well as winning a pilot of its GriDD mobile data sharing app with Orange. TerraNet is also meeting leading Chinese mobile point of sale (mPoS) firms to promote a prospective new line in offline mPoS in the Chinese market. It is worth nothing, however, that delays in software releases by third parties have held up the roll-out of proximal connectivity services in China, putting back take-up of TerraNet’s software. This together with a slower than expected ramp up in revenues in H117 has led us to reduce our base case valuation range to SEK12.6-14.4/share.

Hutchison China MediTech

WCLC highlights savolitinib combination potential

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 Oct 2017

Data presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) on combination approaches to treat resistant EGFR-driven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) highlight a widening of the patient population that could be eligible to receive savolitinib in combination with either Tagrisso or Iressa. Partner AZN now has the data set to make a decision on global Phase III trials and evaluate breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) potential in both 2L and 3L EGFR-resistant NSCLC; in our view, data to date supports both. BTD could offer earlier entry into the US market. Furthermore, Phase II data presented on fruquintinib in combination with Iressa (first line EGFRm NSCLC) showed encouraging efficacy and acceptable safety. We place our forecasts and valuation under review as we revisit our peak sales assumptions.