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Toscafund Asset Management

Executive interview – Toscafund Asset Management

Edison TV: | Investment Companies | 16 Oct 2018

Dr Savvas Savouri, chief economist at Toscafund, discusses issues affecting the current macro-economic climate including Brexit, China and president Trump. Toscafund Asset Management LLP, founded in 2000 by Martin Hughes, is a multi-asset fund management firm with approximately $4bn of assets under management. Dr Savouri’s discussion papers can be found here.

Fluence Corporation

China Contract catalyst?

Flash note | General Industrials | 15 Oct 2018

Fluence has secured a deal for its Aspiral product in China that should generate at least US$45m in revenue over the next three years. This deal is significant as, aside from the financial benefit, it demonstrates the size of the opportunity for Aspiral in China. Greater investor confidence in Fluence's prospects here could drive a sharp re-rating of the shares, in our view. We make no changes to numbers now but will review estimates after the Q3 trading statement.

Cellular Biomedicine Group

CBMG and Novartis sign manufacturing partnership

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 05 Oct 2018

Cellular Biomedicine Group (CBMG) announced it has signed an exclusive partnership with Novartis to manufacture the CAR-T therapy Kymriah in China. Novartis retains all marketing responsibility and CBMG will be entitled to both a mark-up on manufacturing costs and an escalating single-digit royalty on sales. Additionally, Novartis will take an equity stake in CBMG of approximately 9%: $40m at $27.43/share. Our valuation is lifted to $535m (from $353.1m).

China Water Affairs Group

Water regulation remains positive

Flash note | General Industrials | 04 Oct 2018

We believe that the outlook for regulation of the Chinese water sector remains positive and would caution against read-across from current proposals for gas regulation in Chongqing, as substantial differences exist between the two industries. Valuations in excess of HK$10/share are sustainable for China Water Affairs Group (CWA), in our view.

ASLAN Pharmaceuticals

Enrolment for China study adjusted

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 19 Sep 2018

ASLAN announced it would be amending the protocol for its ongoing Chinese pivotal trial of varlitinib in biliary tract cancer (BTC). The patients being enrolled in China had more severe disease than expected based on historical controls, which manifested as a weaker than expected response to treatment on the trial. Due to delays, the Chinese study may not complete before the ongoing TREETOP study, which would then serve as a pivotal study for approval in China and is expected to complete in 2019.

Hutchison China MediTech

Fruquintinib capsules approved in China

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 18 Sep 2018

Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) lead TKI asset, fruquintinib, has received China registration approval from the National Medical Products Administration of China (NMPA) for the treatment of CRC (third line). The approval serves as a major validation of the R&D innovation strategy, which HCM has cultivated over the years. This is the first innovative drug for an oncology indication, discovered and developed in China through a randomized clinical trial, to be unconditionally approved in that country. We expect launch in China by HCM and partner Eli Lilly during Q418. The approval has triggered a $13.6m milestone payment to HCM from Lilly. Our revised valuation is GBP 74/ share.

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Strong market fundamentals expected to prevail

Review | Investment Companies | 17 Sep 2018

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF) is one of the oldest and largest Vietnam specialist investment companies and is now a FTSE 250 index constituent. Investing across asset classes – listed and unlisted equity, private equity and real estate – VOF’s approach is differentiated by its focus on private deal sourcing, where its investment team has extensive experience. In sterling terms, VOF’s NAV total returns have been strong over the last three years. While lagging the Vietnamese stock market over one year, VOF’s NAV held up well during the 2018 market correction. The US-China trade dispute has weighed on market sentiment, but the manager believes that fundamentals remain strong and the current market level presents an opportunity for investors taking a medium-term view.

Adocia

First arbitration won; partners sought

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 05 Sep 2018

The Arbitration Panel has found for Adocia in the first phase of the ongoing arbitration against Lilly; Adocia will be awarded $11.6m in damages. On the partnering front, Adocia has struck a deal with Tonghua Dongbao (THDB) that includes BioChaperone (BC) Combo and BC Lispro for China and additional undisclosed countries. The deal includes a $50m upfront payment, up to $85m in milestone payments and double-digit royalties on net sales. A Phase I clinical trial with BC Pramlintide Insulin is ongoing; Adocia plans to start Phase I trials with BC Glucagon GLP-1 and GLP-2 in H119. Finally, it presented six abstracts at the American Diabetes Association meeting. Gross cash at end-H118 was €55.8m.

Hutchison China MediTech

Establishing a global operational presence

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Aug 2018

Highlights from Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) H118 results relate to the substantial pipeline-related newsflow expected in 2018/19, the recent expansion of its US and international operations (which will enable HCM to execute its international R&D and commercialization strategies) plus strong operational and financial performance by the China commercial platform division. Fruquintinib (third-line CRC) remains on track to launch in China by year end (approval decision expected by the CNDA in the next few months). Encouraging Phase II data so far on savolitinib (first-line NSCLC exon14m/deletion) could lead to accelerated approval in China, contingent on final data (expected in 2020) being consistent with data to date. We value HCM at $6.4bn.

Hutchison China MediTech

Establishing a global operational presence

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 17 Aug 2018

Highlights from Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) H118 results relate to the substantial pipeline-related newsflow expected in 2018/19, the recent expansion of its US and international operations (which will enable HCM to execute its international R&D and commercialisation strategies) plus strong operational and financial performance by the China commercial platform division. Fruquintinib (third-line CRC) remains on track to launch in China by year end (approval decision expected by the CNDA in the next few months). Encouraging Phase II data so far on savolitinib (first-line NSCLC exon14m/deletion) could lead to accelerated approval in China, contingent on final data (expected in 2020) being consistent with data to date. We value HCM at $6.4bn or GBP 73.3/share.

Takung Art

Pausing new listings

Update | Media | 16 Aug 2018

Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Political impacts on global gas trade

Update | Oil & Gas | 15 Aug 2018

Potential Chinese tariffs on US LNG and European concerns over the security of gas supply have the potential to alter forecast global gas flows materially. Growing US LNG exports were expected to make a significant contribution in meeting flourishing Chinese gas demand. However, we believe Trump’s trade war and a retaliatory Chinese LNG tariff could see US molecules redirected to other Asian consumers and the European market, a market looking to develop alternatives to Russian piped gas supply. It is difficult to quantify the precise impact of a potential tariff for US LNG on Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd’s (LNGL) valuation. Fundamentally, the impact is likely to be small as we assume fixed price tolling fee arrangements, but current rhetoric on tariffs is likely to be on the minds of project financiers and gas offtakers, potentially delaying project timelines. For now, we maintain our valuation at A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR). The political impasse between the US and China could push back first gas from our current 2024 forecast for Magnolia LNG.