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Airbus

Positive progress

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 01 Nov 2018

Airbus has demonstrated positive progress in Q318 both on a year-on-year and sequential basis. Strong profitability reflected the progress on the A350 programme as the production schedule ramps up. Guidance has been adjusted, reducing the number of expected aircraft deliveries and FY18 FCF performance. Overall, with supportive end-markets, Airbus continues to address its current production challenges. We believe that the improving financial performance from the A320 and A350 ramp-ups underpins growth in group cash and earnings from 2019.

Airbus

Increasing rewards from civil aircraft

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 27 Jul 2018

Airbus reported Q218 adjusted EBIT well ahead of consensus, on sales modestly better than market forecasts. The beat was mainly driven by improvements on the A350 programme. Guidance is unchanged except for the addition of the A220 in H218. Prospects for Airbus Defence & Space (ADS) and Helicopters also appear to be improving, and as civil aircraft delivers improving financials, group cash and earnings should grow strongly into the next decade.

Airbus

Resolving engine delays key for take-off

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 30 Apr 2018

Q118 trading continued to be adversely affected by engine delays on the A320neo programmes, which constrained deliveries as the manufacturing programme ramps up. Nevertheless, adjusted EBIT actually improved year-on-year. Assuming the corrective actions are successful, Airbus's sequential progress in cash flow and profitability should become more consistent. Management appears confident that with current A320 and A350 ramp-ups being achieved by mid-2019 and the A400M cash profile improving from next year, strong EPS development and cash growth are in prospect. FY18 guidance is for a 63% rise in adjusted EBIT under IFRS 15 to €5.2bn, with sustainable growth increasingly likely in the future.

Airbus

Flying with increased confidence

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 19 Feb 2018

There was an air of confidence with Airbus's FY17 results call this morning. It is refreshing its leadership team, addressing key programme issues and delivering better than expected cash performance. Guidance for FY18 indicates a 20% improvement in adjusted EBITA as the ramp-up in production continues, with required investment starting to fall away. Dividend uplift of 11% reflects confidence despite operational challenges.

Airbus

Transition management continues

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 02 Nov 2017

While Airbus has continued to maintain guidance for FY17, the demands to deliver in Q4 are clear. Although A320neo engine issues keep the pressure on the production schedule, the company is making good progress on its other programmes. A resumption of EPS growth in FY18 remains the main support for the investment case.

Airbus

Reducing turbulence as year progresses

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 28 Jul 2017

Airbus has maintained guidance for FY17, although the recurring issues on the A380, A400M, A350 and A320neo programmes remain a focus of discussion. A stronger second half implied by the guidance should allay some of the concerns, and provide trading momentum into next year. Cash flow appears to be broadly on track which, combined with a resumption of EPS growth in FY18, remains the main support for the investment case.

Airbus

Q1 turbulence but FY17 ready on the runway

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 28 Apr 2017

Airbus's Q117 margin was lower than expected, at 1.8% compared to market consensus of 2.5%, mainly due to weaker pricing of old aircraft and higher costs of production for new ones. The helicopter division also made an unexpected loss. However, management confirmed its FY17 guidance and is confident that the challenging production ramp-up is on track.

Airbus

Flight path maintained

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 23 Feb 2017

Airbus delivered another robust performance in 2016, with Q4 results exceeding market expectations. The addition of a further provision of €1.2bn (FY16 total €2.2bn) for the troubled A400M military transport aircraft remains a burden on cash in 2017 and 2018. However, even allowing for this, it would appear that both underlying earnings and group FCF are set to start improving from this year, and likely accelerate as the civil aircraft ramp-ups deliver expected learning curve benefits with improved pricing.

Airbus

In it for the longhaul and the shorthaul

QuickView | Aerospace & Defence | 11 Apr 2016

Airbus Group is now a much better-defined business and investment proposal as it increases its focus on its core aerospace activities. Civil aerospace growth provides a solid foundation, with Airbus a clear leader in accessing it at present. Aided by favourable currency movements and an innovative product strategy, the company continues to move forward positively, coping with short-term trials and preparing for excess returns.

Airbus

Daily comment

Institutional Comment | Aerospace & Defence | 27 Feb 2015

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GKN

Aerostructures: A tale of two cities

Institutional Update | Engineering | 16 Feb 2015

A visit to two of GKN's flagship aerospace sites highlighted both positives (skills in complex subassemblies constructed from especially challenging materials, and supply chain management) and negatives (the burden of building up volume and reducing quality problems on the A350 and A400M wing spars). Our key conclusions are that very high levels of work in progress suggest some risk to 2014e cash flow, but this could reverse faster than expected in 2015e. In the near term, we think GKN has its work cut out to address the ongoing quality, rate and production issues at the two sites to Airbus's full satisfaction, despite that company's conflicted position as both end-customer and supplier of major components.

GKN

Aerospace sites visit: More spars than in Master and Commander

Institutional Comment | Engineering | 13 Feb 2015

A visit to two of GKN's flagship aerospace sites near Bristol highlighted both the company's positives (skills in complex subassemblies constructed from especially challenging materials, including titanium and composites, and supply chain management) and negatives (the burden of building up volume and reducing quality problems on the A350 and A400M wing spars). Our key conclusions are that almost alarming levels of work in progress at the Western Approach facility suggest some downside to 2014e cash flow, but this could reverse faster than expected in 2015e. In the near term, we think GKN has its work cut out to address the ongoing quality, rate and production issues at the two sites to Airbus' full satisfaction, despite the company's conflicted position as both end customer and supplier of major components. GKN has previously suggested that at group level, management feels ready and able to carry out another major acquisition, with aerospace a favoured market. We note that Bombardier has indicated its willingness to “participate in industry consolidation” with its FY14 results and financing plan. We note, however, the Canadian company's guidance for c 4% operating margins (on $1.8bn of revenues) compares very unfavourably with the 11%+ margins that we forecast for GKN Aerospace in 2014e.