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Caledonia Mining

Expansion on track, a gold mine with purpose

Update | Mining | 01 May 2018

FY17 saw Caledonia Mining (CMCL) marginally beat its 54-56koz gold production guidance, drive down AISC costs, its head grade increase (which had a corresponding positive effect on gold recoveries) and add significantly to its code-compliant resource base. In relation to its investment plan to lift production to 80koz by 2021, we see capex peaking this financial year (FY18), which will then allow significantly improved free cash flow generation. Coupled with an improved political environment and regulatory changes seemingly favouring gold miners (with a key objective of improving Zimbabwe’s domestic US$ currency supply), Caledonia is very well placed to capitalise on the long-overdue opening up of one of Africa’s prime geological and mining gems.

Renergen

South African LNG and helium play

Initiation | Oil & Gas | 13 Mar 2018

Renergen represents a unique opportunity for investors. The company holds the first, and currently only, onshore petroleum production right in South Africa. While it is already producing and selling gas, production is set to accelerate in the next 18 months as it moves to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, primarily serving the growing domestic heavy duty truck market. The move to LNG also unlocks the potential to extract and sell helium, adding material upside to economics (c 35% upside to NAV). With gross 2P reserves of 142 bcf of methane and c 2.2% of additional helium (Renergen 90% WI), our risked core NAV on a fully diluted basis is ZAR19.0/share. We estimate additional funding of c ZAR240m is required to become self-funding, in addition to a secured ZAR218m of term loan.

MyBucks

Growth pains

Update | Financials | 09 Jan 2018

MyBucks (MBC) is pursuing technological and regional growth initiatives despite immediate challenges in integrating new acquisitions. The group is fully committed to its strategy of supplying financial services to poorly serviced customers, primarily low and middle income clients in sub-Saharan Africa via the internet, cell phones and applications. The product range has been expanded to include SME loans and insurance products. New acquisitions have extended coverage up the continent’s eastern seaboard, but have required considerable integration efforts.

MyBucks

Emerging market fintech

QuickView | Financials | 15 Nov 2017

Founded in 2011, MyBucks (MBC) has been profitable at the operational level since its second year of operations, providing microloans, insurance and banking via the internet, cellphones and applications, primarily to low- and middle-income customers in sub-Saharan Africa. The lending products range has been expanded to include agricultural, educational and SME products.

SDX Energy

Material growth still to come

Outlook | Oil & Gas | 19 Jul 2017

SDX Energy is a North Africa-focused E&P with production in Egypt and Morocco. The company benefits from strong cash flow generation from its oil production (Egypt) and high value gas production in Morocco, which is being re-invested to increase production markedly in H217. The company added to its portfolio in early 2017 and continues to seek other opportunities. We have adjusted our valuation, which sees the core NAV increase to 55p/share (from 40p/share) but RENAV fall to 67p/share. With further success in exploration at South Disouq this could grow further.

Norcros

Solid H2 performance

Update | Construction & Building Materials | 18 Apr 2017

An in-line year end update pointed to an improved H2 trading period for UK based operations and good ongoing progress in South Africa. Full details on underlying profit trends will come with the FY17 results but we feel that the business is performing well in its markets and this is not being fully reflected in the company's valuation.

MyBucks

Emerging market fintech

Initiation | Financials | 07 Apr 2017

Founded in 2011, MyBucks (MBC) has been profitable at the operational level since its second year of operations, providing microloans via the internet primarily to low- and middle-income customers in sub-Saharan Africa. With smartphone ownership ahead of bank account penetration in many countries in the region, MBC seeks to use the internet to gain access to a large population with an increasing demand for small loans and other financial services. It has recently expanded into Australia and a deal with Opportunity International will provide access to new African markets too.

Avanti Communications

Calling ground control

Flash note | Aerospace & Defence | 29 Mar 2017

Following its successful refinancing in January, Avanti is gathering momentum once again. It has today announced a very significant partnership for sub-Saharan Africa connectivity with Millicom, a top three player in the African telecom market. Avanti is not only to provide 4G backhaul services via its satellite network to improve access in remote and rural areas, but is also to build a new Gateway Earth Station in Senegal to enhance performance across the region. The site is to be co-located with Millicom operations and will service existing HYLAS 2 coverage as well as those from HYLAS 4. We await confirmation of a launch date in H217 for the new satellite, but today's announcement appears to confirm Avanti's Ka-band technology remains at the forefront of satellite connectivity.

Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler

A steady ship

Outlook | Financials | 21 Feb 2017

Despite exceptional political events in Turkey during 2016, Is Yatirim’s (ISY) FY16 results showed that its core investment banking business performed well, contributing to strong consolidated net profits, 33% ahead of FY15. Two of its subsidiaries suffered losses but steps have been taken to reduce these in FY17 and other segments performed better than forecast against a challenging backdrop. ISY continues to have a strong balance sheet and is committed to making high distributions to shareholders, so we have maintained our dividend forecast at 10 kuruÅŸ.

Palm Hills Developments

A record-breaking year

Update | Property | 15 Feb 2017

Palm Hills continues to perform well at the top line with record annual revenues of EGP5.6bn driven by the company’s best year for both reservations and the delivery of units. The accelerated construction programme is helping to mitigate the effects of inflation and management reports a strong start to 2017 in terms of both sales and construction. Improvements in the balance sheet are expected as the securitisation programme that began in Q416 brings forward cash flows and helps to pay back debt.

Foresight Autonomous Holdings

Deutsche Bahn gives RV glowing assessment

Flash note | Technology | 15 Feb 2017

Foresight has announced that Deutsche Bahn (DB) has concluded field tests of 32%-owned Rail Vision’s (RV) collision-avoidance system and concluded that the system’s capabilities are “unprecedented in Europe” and “may provide solutions to multiple problems the company faces and intends to address in coming years”. RV’s representatives have been asked to extend their stay in Germany for further collaboration, which, together with the above statements, may be a sign of DB’s intention to move rapidly to upgrade its fleet. Based on a prospective price per installed unit of $32-50,000, as per our model in the 2017-19 period, we see the potential for DB to spend $200-300m to install collision-avoidance systems on its fleet of 1,450 locomotives and 4,800 powered multiple units.

Pointer Telocation

Taking a ride with Uber

Flash note | Technology | 30 Jan 2017

Pointer Telocation (PNTR) has won a five-year contract to provide fleet management and driver behaviour monitoring services for 4,000 New York black cars and car service vehicles working for online transportation network companies (TNC), including Uber and Lyft. The contract, announced on 17 January, represents PNTR’s first foray into the US market, which has been made possible by the group’s recent move into cloud-based SaaS services. Although small in revenue terms, the contract looks to have significant upside potential for the group. It should considerably raise the group’s profile in the US in the growth area of driver monitoring, even more-so as global ADAS leader Mobileye is working with PNTR in the project (providing ADAS services). If successful, we see very good prospects for it to lead to further business from the fast-growing TNC sector across the US and internationally, as well as from other forms of for-hire vehicles in NYC.