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Smartinhaler improves medication adherence

Initiation | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 20 Apr 2016

Adherium has developed the market-leading Smartinhaler platform that monitors usage of inhaled asthma and COPD medications and provides reminders and feedback that improve patient adherence. With an existing commercial relationship with AstraZeneca and strong relationships with other pharma companies and key opinion leaders through sales for clinical trials, Adherium is positioned for strong revenue growth. We value Adherium at A$188m, or A$1.31 per share.

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

Preparing to establish own sales organization

ADR Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 12 Dec 2018

SymBio announced in October that it has begun preparations to establish its own sales organization to market Treakisym and other anticancer drugs in Japan after the marketing agreement with Eisai expires in December 2020. The announcement validates our decision earlier this year to adopt self-commercialization in Japan in our base-case valuation model. Self-commercialization will improve operating margins and allow it to establish a team of in-house experts to communicate the benefits of Treakisym (and rigosertib if approved) to healthcare providers. Our valuation increases to $225m as we roll forward the DCF model; our earnings forecasts and valuation assumptions are unchanged.


Managing events for sustained returns

QuickView | Consumer Support Services | 07 Dec 2018

In FY18 the UK sugar levy (SDIL) and CO2 shortage took the shine off a potentially landmark summer. Nevertheless, Britvic (BVIC) delivered good EPS growth of 6.4% on revenue up 5.1%. A five-year track record of 10% EPS CAGR, with debt within target, indicates earnings quality. Looking ahead, as the business capability programme ends, bringing planned returns, further growth and lower leverage may narrow the wide discount to peers.


A big year ahead for efti

ADR Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 22 Nov 2018

We expect Immutep to deliver on a number of important milestones in the year ahead. The AIPAC Phase II study of its APC activator eftilagimod alpha (efti) plus chemo in breast cancer is expected to complete recruitment in H119 and report top-line data before the end of the year. The TACTI-002 study of efti plus Keytruda in lung and head and neck cancers in collaboration with US Merck will start shortly and report first data mid-year, whereas TACTI-mel will report first data from melanoma patients dosed with efti from the start of Keytruda therapy. Other in-house and partnered programs are also likely to produce significant news. We maintain our valuation of $387m ahead of these milestones.

Kazia Therapeutics

New indications for GDC-0084

ADR Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 29 Oct 2018

Kazia has added two further indications to the development program for its brain-penetrant PI3K inhibitor GDC-0084 through collaborations with prestigious US-based cancer centers. The collaborations further validate the potential of GDC-0084, which was in-licensed from Genentech in 2016. Importantly, the two additional indications will provide alternative pathways to a potential first marketing approval for GDC-0084, increasing the overall likelihood of success. Kazia’s ongoing Phase IIa study of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma (GBM) is expected to report first data in early 2019. Kazia raised $2.6m through a recent share placement and has a share purchase plan (SPP) underway to raise additional funds. We increase our valuation range to between $63m and $105m.


A second big pharma collaboration for efti

ADR Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 27 Sep 2018

Immutep has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck/Pfizer to investigate the combination of its APC activator eftilagimod alpha (efti) with avelumab in patients with advanced solid tumors. Avelumab is the big pharma pair’s investigational anti-PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI). We view the additional validation from big pharma is as a very positive development for Immutep, which could bring the added bonus of early identification of additional target indications. We maintain our valuation at $387m or $12.80/ADR.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 and Cantrixil trials progressing

ADR Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 19 Sep 2018

Kazia Therapeutics has commenced the Phase II program for GDC-0084 in glioblastoma (GDC-0084 was in-licensed from Genentech in 2016). Initial data from the Phase IIa dose optimization component are expected in H119, with a subsequent Phase IIb study expected to read out in 2021. The Phase I study of Cantrixil in ovarian cancer is in the final stages of determining the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Our valuation range is unchanged at $56m to $101m ($11.10–20.16 per share).


LAG-3 progress in-house and via partners

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 30 Aug 2018

Immutep has reported encouraging progress from its in-house and partnered programs over the past few months. Interim data from the TACTI-mel combo study included a 61% response rate from the start of the Keytruda monotherapy screening period among subjects who went on to receive eftilagimod alpha (efti or IMP321) combo therapy. Partners GSK and Novartis are progressing their in-licensed LAG-3 programs into Phase II or proof of concept studies, which increases the likelihood that these programs will return significant value to Immutep. Our valuation has increased to $387m or $12.80/ADR (from $333m or $10.41/ADR).

Hutchison China MediTech

Establishing a global operational presence

Update | Pharmaceuticals & healthcare | 20 Aug 2018

Highlights from Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) H118 results relate to the substantial pipeline-related newsflow expected in 2018/19, the recent expansion of its US and international operations (which will enable HCM to execute its international R&D and commercialization strategies) plus strong operational and financial performance by the China commercial platform division. Fruquintinib (third-line CRC) remains on track to launch in China by year end (approval decision expected by the CNDA in the next few months). Encouraging Phase II data so far on savolitinib (first-line NSCLC exon14m/deletion) could lead to accelerated approval in China, contingent on final data (expected in 2020) being consistent with data to date. We value HCM at $6.4bn.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Political impacts on global gas trade

Update | Oil & gas | 15 Aug 2018

Potential Chinese tariffs on US LNG and European concerns over the security of gas supply have the potential to alter forecast global gas flows materially. Growing US LNG exports were expected to make a significant contribution in meeting flourishing Chinese gas demand. However, we believe Trump’s trade war and a retaliatory Chinese LNG tariff could see US molecules redirected to other Asian consumers and the European market, a market looking to develop alternatives to Russian piped gas supply. It is difficult to quantify the precise impact of a potential tariff for US LNG on Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd’s (LNGL) valuation. Fundamentally, the impact is likely to be small as we assume fixed price tolling fee arrangements, but current rhetoric on tariffs is likely to be on the minds of project financiers and gas offtakers, potentially delaying project timelines. For now, we maintain our valuation at A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR). The political impasse between the US and China could push back first gas from our current 2024 forecast for Magnolia LNG.


Q3 trading statement: Still(s) crazy

QuickView | Consumer Support Services | 01 Aug 2018

Britvic (BVIC) has successfully managed two potential threats o the Soft Drinks Levy (SDIL) and the industry CO2 shortage o to confirm modest earnings growth prospects for FY18. The recent heatwave might otherwise have driven outperformance. But with redirected marketing driving double-digit stills growth, the position was held. Looking forward, as BVIC's business capability program completes and benefits start to flow, more meaningful earnings growth may narrow the discount to peers.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Strategic investor enhances credibility in China

Update | Oil & gas | 19 Jun 2018

On 4 June 2018, Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (LNGL) announced a strategic investment by IDG Energy Investment Group (IDG Energy), a Hong Kong-listed investment holding company affiliated to IDG Capital with assets under management of c $20bn. The share placement raised gross proceeds of A$28.2m at a price of A$0.5/share (a 14.1% premium to 30-day volume weighted average price to 1 June 2018). We believe the share placement will cover Magnolia pre-FID costs and cash burn through to mid-2020. In addition, the presence of IDG Energy as a major shareholder (9.9% of share capital) will enhance credibility in China, a principal growth market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Our valuation, which we have updated to reflect funds raised and fx, rises 1% from A$1.00/share (US$3.23/ADR) to A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR).