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Smartinhaler improves medication adherence

Initiation | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Apr 2016

Adherium has developed the market-leading Smartinhaler platform that monitors usage of inhaled asthma and COPD medications and provides reminders and feedback that improve patient adherence. With an existing commercial relationship with AstraZeneca and strong relationships with other pharma companies and key opinion leaders through sales for clinical trials, Adherium is positioned for strong revenue growth. We value Adherium at A$188m, or A$1.31 per share.


A second big pharma collaboration for efti

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 27 Sep 2018

Immutep has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck/Pfizer to investigate the combination of its APC activator eftilagimod alpha (efti) with avelumab in patients with advanced solid tumors. Avelumab is the big pharma pair’s investigational anti-PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI). We view the additional validation from big pharma is as a very positive development for Immutep, which could bring the added bonus of early identification of additional target indications. We maintain our valuation at $387m or $12.80/ADR.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 and Cantrixil trials progressing

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 19 Sep 2018

Kazia Therapeutics has commenced the Phase II program for GDC-0084 in glioblastoma (GDC-0084 was in-licensed from Genentech in 2016). Initial data from the Phase IIa dose optimization component are expected in H119, with a subsequent Phase IIb study expected to read out in 2021. The Phase I study of Cantrixil in ovarian cancer is in the final stages of determining the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Our valuation range is unchanged at $56m to $101m ($11.10–20.16 per share).


LAG-3 progress in-house and via partners

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Aug 2018

Immutep has reported encouraging progress from its in-house and partnered programs over the past few months. Interim data from the TACTI-mel combo study included a 61% response rate from the start of the Keytruda monotherapy screening period among subjects who went on to receive eftilagimod alpha (efti or IMP321) combo therapy. Partners GSK and Novartis are progressing their in-licensed LAG-3 programs into Phase II or proof of concept studies, which increases the likelihood that these programs will return significant value to Immutep. Our valuation has increased to $387m or $12.80/ADR (from $333m or $10.41/ADR).

Hutchison China MediTech

Establishing a global operational presence

Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Aug 2018

Highlights from Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) H118 results relate to the substantial pipeline-related newsflow expected in 2018/19, the recent expansion of its US and international operations (which will enable HCM to execute its international R&D and commercialization strategies) plus strong operational and financial performance by the China commercial platform division. Fruquintinib (third-line CRC) remains on track to launch in China by year end (approval decision expected by the CNDA in the next few months). Encouraging Phase II data so far on savolitinib (first-line NSCLC exon14m/deletion) could lead to accelerated approval in China, contingent on final data (expected in 2020) being consistent with data to date. We value HCM at $6.4bn.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Political impacts on global gas trade

Update | Oil & Gas | 15 Aug 2018

Potential Chinese tariffs on US LNG and European concerns over the security of gas supply have the potential to alter forecast global gas flows materially. Growing US LNG exports were expected to make a significant contribution in meeting flourishing Chinese gas demand. However, we believe Trump’s trade war and a retaliatory Chinese LNG tariff could see US molecules redirected to other Asian consumers and the European market, a market looking to develop alternatives to Russian piped gas supply. It is difficult to quantify the precise impact of a potential tariff for US LNG on Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd’s (LNGL) valuation. Fundamentally, the impact is likely to be small as we assume fixed price tolling fee arrangements, but current rhetoric on tariffs is likely to be on the minds of project financiers and gas offtakers, potentially delaying project timelines. For now, we maintain our valuation at A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR). The political impasse between the US and China could push back first gas from our current 2024 forecast for Magnolia LNG.


Q3 trading statement: Still(s) crazy

QuickView | Consumer Support Services | 01 Aug 2018

Britvic (BVIC) has successfully managed two potential threats o the Soft Drinks Levy (SDIL) and the industry CO2 shortage o to confirm modest earnings growth prospects for FY18. The recent heatwave might otherwise have driven outperformance. But with redirected marketing driving double-digit stills growth, the position was held. Looking forward, as BVIC's business capability program completes and benefits start to flow, more meaningful earnings growth may narrow the discount to peers.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Strategic investor enhances credibility in China

Update | Oil & Gas | 19 Jun 2018

On 4 June 2018, Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (LNGL) announced a strategic investment by IDG Energy Investment Group (IDG Energy), a Hong Kong-listed investment holding company affiliated to IDG Capital with assets under management of c $20bn. The share placement raised gross proceeds of A$28.2m at a price of A$0.5/share (a 14.1% premium to 30-day volume weighted average price to 1 June 2018). We believe the share placement will cover Magnolia pre-FID costs and cash burn through to mid-2020. In addition, the presence of IDG Energy as a major shareholder (9.9% of share capital) will enhance credibility in China, a principal growth market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Our valuation, which we have updated to reflect funds raised and fx, rises 1% from A$1.00/share (US$3.23/ADR) to A$1.01/share (US$3.18/ADR).

Hutchison China MediTech

Jewels in the crown

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 01 Jun 2018

Key near-term value drivers include newsflow from partnered assets savolitinib (AZN globally) and fruquintinib (LLY in China). By year end, we anticipate the China FDA to approve fruquintinib (3L CRC). The molecular epidemiology study (MES) data on savolitinib in PRCC could support a US NDA submission (possible breakthrough therapy designation, BTD). Both products have blockbuster potential; as combination therapies in cancer drive overall uptake of targeted therapies. Beyond this we expect progression in Hutchison China MediTech's (HCM) wholly owned late stage oncology assets to reach value inflection points over the next few years. We have extensively reviewed our financial forecasts and increase our valuation to $47.9/ADS or $6.4bn.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 Phase II underway

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 May 2018

Kazia Therapeutics has initiated the dose optimization lead-in component of the Phase II trial of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma, with initial data expected in Q119. Initial data from the Cantrixil ovarian cancer Phase I are due shortly. In January Kazia received a ~5% shareholding in Noxopharm (current market value ~$3m) in return for collaborative support of that company’s lead program. We roll forward our DCF model and add in the Noxopharm shareholding, which increases our valuation to between $56m and $101m.

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

Self-commercialization gains favor

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 09 Apr 2018

With the lifecycle of Treakisym extended through the in-licensing of liquid formulations from Eagle in 2017, SymBio is refining its plans to establish its own salesforce to market Treakisym (and other drugs) in Japan. While the company has not yet made a final decision, we think it is highly likely to move to self-commercialization in order to improve operating margins after its marketing arrangement with Eisai expires. Therefore, we now model self-commercialization in our base-case valuation. This more than offsets the later anticipated filing date for rigosertib iv and lower peak penetration for Treakisym in first-line non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and lifts our valuation to $211m.


Merck collaboration opens new opportunities

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 29 Mar 2018

Immutep has entered a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck & Co (MSD) for a Phase II study to evaluate eftilagimod alpha (IMP321) plus Keytruda in lung, head and neck and ovarian cancers. It is positive to see Immutep collaborating with a leading immunotherapy company, with three new indications added to its ongoing studies in breast cancer and melanoma. It has raised $5.2m through a placement and has opened a share purchase plan to raise up to $8m. We increase our valuation to $333m (vs $206m) or $10.41/ADR (vs $8.75/ADR).