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Adherium

Smartinhaler improves medication adherence

Initiation | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Apr 2016

Adherium has developed the market-leading Smartinhaler platform that monitors usage of inhaled asthma and COPD medications and provides reminders and feedback that improve patient adherence. With an existing commercial relationship with AstraZeneca and strong relationships with other pharma companies and key opinion leaders through sales for clinical trials, Adherium is positioned for strong revenue growth. We value Adherium at A$188m, or A$1.31 per share.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 Phase II underway

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 11 May 2018

Kazia Therapeutics has initiated the dose optimization lead-in component of the Phase II trial of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma, with initial data expected in Q119. Initial data from the Cantrixil ovarian cancer Phase I are due shortly. In January Kazia received a ~5% shareholding in Noxopharm (current market value ~$3m) in return for collaborative support of that company’s lead program. We roll forward our DCF model and add in the Noxopharm shareholding, which increases our valuation to between $56m and $101m.

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

Self-commercialization gains favor

ADR Outlook | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 09 Apr 2018

With the lifecycle of Treakisym extended through the in-licensing of liquid formulations from Eagle in 2017, SymBio is refining its plans to establish its own salesforce to market Treakisym (and other drugs) in Japan. While the company has not yet made a final decision, we think it is highly likely to move to self-commercialization in order to improve operating margins after its marketing arrangement with Eisai expires. Therefore, we now model self-commercialization in our base-case valuation. This more than offsets the later anticipated filing date for rigosertib iv and lower peak penetration for Treakisym in first-line non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and lifts our valuation to $211m.

Immutep

Merck collaboration opens new opportunities

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 29 Mar 2018

Immutep has entered a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck & Co (MSD) for a Phase II study to evaluate eftilagimod alpha (IMP321) plus Keytruda in lung, head and neck and ovarian cancers. It is positive to see Immutep collaborating with a leading immunotherapy company, with three new indications added to its ongoing studies in breast cancer and melanoma. It has raised $5.2m through a placement and has opened a share purchase plan to raise up to $8m. We increase our valuation to $333m (vs $206m) or $10.41/ADR (vs $8.75/ADR).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Moving towards FID in 2018

ADR Outlook | Oil & Gas | 13 Feb 2018

Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from US$3.79/ADR (A$1.25/share) to US$3.23/ADR (A$1.00/share). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Moving towards FID in 2018

Outlook | Oil & Gas | 13 Feb 2018

Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from A$1.25/share (US$3.79/ADR) to A$1.00/share (US$3.23/ADR). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 Phase II to begin shortly

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 21 Dec 2017

Novogen has changed its name to Kazia Therapeutics and undertaken a 10:1 share consolidation following shareholder approval in November. It has also out-licensed its preclinical super-benzopyran development program, and has added a dose optimization lead-in component to the Phase II trial of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma, which is expected to commence in early 2018. Although the more focused pipeline and longer Phase II trial for GDC-0084 prompts us to trim our valuation to between $53m and $96m, we believe the changes will be positive in the long run, increasing the chance of success in the GDC-0084 development program.

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

Licence agreement for IONSYS terminated

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 15 Dec 2017

The licence agreement between SymBio and The Medicines Company (MDCO) for the exclusive rights to develop the IONSYS (SyB P-1501) pain patch in Japan has terminated effective 30 November. SymBio is seeking damages of at least $82m (¥9bn) arising from MDCO’s repudiation of the licence agreement. The termination is in line with our expectations after MDCO voluntarily withdrew IONSYS from sale in the US market in June; any compensation payments received from MDCO would represent upside to our forecasts and valuation. Our forecasts and valuation ($174m) are unchanged, as we have already removed all future costs and revenues for SyB P-1501 from our financial model.

Immutep

Encouraging LAG-3 combo data at SITC

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 12 Dec 2017

Prima BioMed has changed its name to Immutep Limited following shareholder approval in November. It reported an encouraging 33% preliminary response rate from the first two cohorts of the TACTI-mel trial of IMP321 (eftilagimod alpha) in combination with Keytruda in melanoma patients who had not achieved a meaningful therapeutic benefit from Keytruda monotherapy. The 33% response rate is double the rate we would have anticipated had these patients continued on Keytruda alone, and suggests that IMP321 is working as expected to boost immune responses when combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The final cohort is expected to be fully recruited by Q417, and efficacy data from all three cohorts are expected in Q218. Our valuation is unchanged at $206m or $8.75/ADR.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Improving macro environment

ADR Update | Oil & Gas | 29 Nov 2017

The Magnolia development remains one of the most competitive LNG development projects (greenfield or brownfield) globally. Industry is starting to recognize that the current LNG oversupply will move towards undersupply within five years and there are few projects on track to fill the resulting gap. This should put Magnolia increasingly in the spotlight for buyers looking to fulfil demand in 2023 onwards. LNGL management has indicated it is in discussions with many companies across a diverse set of geographies and interests. We have adjusted our valuation to account for a delayed expectation of project FID, reducing it slightly to $A1.25/share (US$3.8/ADR).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Improving macro environment

Update | Oil & Gas | 29 Nov 2017

The Magnolia development remains one of the most competitive LNG development projects (greenfield or brownfield) globally. Industry is starting to recognise that the current LNG oversupply will move towards undersupply within five years and there are few projects on track to fill the resulting gap. This should put Magnolia increasingly in the spotlight for buyers looking to fulfil demand in 2023 onwards. LNGL management has indicated it is in discussions with many companies across a diverse set of geographies and interests. We have adjusted our valuation to account for a delayed expectation of project FID, reducing it slightly to $A1.25/share (US$3.8/ADR).

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

New formulations extend Treakisym patent life

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 02 Nov 2017

SymBio has substantially increased the value of its Treakisym franchise through in-licensing novel bendamustine formulations from Eagle Pharmaceuticals for $12.5m. The new formulations bring a lower cost of goods and 10 years of additional patent protection to help in life cycle management of the Treakisym franchise. Sales of Treakisym following the approval of two new indications in 2016 have exceeded the company’s expectations, leading it to upgrade FY17 sales guidance. Interim data from the global Phase III rigosertib trial could become available during Q417. We value SymBio at $174m, with the enhanced Treakisym portfolio offsetting the suspension of IONSYS development.