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Adherium

Smartinhaler improves medication adherence

Initiation | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 20 Apr 2016

Adherium has developed the market-leading Smartinhaler platform that monitors usage of inhaled asthma and COPD medications and provides reminders and feedback that improve patient adherence. With an existing commercial relationship with AstraZeneca and strong relationships with other pharma companies and key opinion leaders through sales for clinical trials, Adherium is positioned for strong revenue growth. We value Adherium at A$188m, or A$1.31 per share.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Moving towards FID in 2018

ADR Outlook | Oil & Gas | 13 Feb 2018

Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from US$3.79/ADR (A$1.25/share) to US$3.23/ADR (A$1.00/share). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Moving towards FID in 2018

Outlook | Oil & Gas | 13 Feb 2018

Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from A$1.25/share (US$3.79/ADR) to A$1.00/share (US$3.23/ADR). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

Kazia Therapeutics

GDC-0084 Phase II to begin shortly

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 21 Dec 2017

Novogen has changed its name to Kazia Therapeutics and undertaken a 10:1 share consolidation following shareholder approval in November. It has also out-licensed its preclinical super-benzopyran development program, and has added a dose optimization lead-in component to the Phase II trial of GDC-0084 in glioblastoma, which is expected to commence in early 2018. Although the more focused pipeline and longer Phase II trial for GDC-0084 prompts us to trim our valuation to between $53m and $96m, we believe the changes will be positive in the long run, increasing the chance of success in the GDC-0084 development program.

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

Licence agreement for IONSYS terminated

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 15 Dec 2017

The licence agreement between SymBio and The Medicines Company (MDCO) for the exclusive rights to develop the IONSYS (SyB P-1501) pain patch in Japan has terminated effective 30 November. SymBio is seeking damages of at least $82m (¥9bn) arising from MDCO’s repudiation of the licence agreement. The termination is in line with our expectations after MDCO voluntarily withdrew IONSYS from sale in the US market in June; any compensation payments received from MDCO would represent upside to our forecasts and valuation. Our forecasts and valuation ($174m) are unchanged, as we have already removed all future costs and revenues for SyB P-1501 from our financial model.

Immutep

Encouraging LAG-3 combo data at SITC

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 12 Dec 2017

Prima BioMed has changed its name to Immutep Limited following shareholder approval in November. It reported an encouraging 33% preliminary response rate from the first two cohorts of the TACTI-mel trial of IMP321 (eftilagimod alpha) in combination with Keytruda in melanoma patients who had not achieved a meaningful therapeutic benefit from Keytruda monotherapy. The 33% response rate is double the rate we would have anticipated had these patients continued on Keytruda alone, and suggests that IMP321 is working as expected to boost immune responses when combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The final cohort is expected to be fully recruited by Q417, and efficacy data from all three cohorts are expected in Q218. Our valuation is unchanged at $206m or $8.75/ADR.

Liquefied Natural Gas

Improving macro environment

ADR Update | Oil & Gas | 29 Nov 2017

The Magnolia development remains one of the most competitive LNG development projects (greenfield or brownfield) globally. Industry is starting to recognize that the current LNG oversupply will move towards undersupply within five years and there are few projects on track to fill the resulting gap. This should put Magnolia increasingly in the spotlight for buyers looking to fulfil demand in 2023 onwards. LNGL management has indicated it is in discussions with many companies across a diverse set of geographies and interests. We have adjusted our valuation to account for a delayed expectation of project FID, reducing it slightly to $A1.25/share (US$3.8/ADR).

Liquefied Natural Gas

Improving macro environment

Update | Oil & Gas | 29 Nov 2017

The Magnolia development remains one of the most competitive LNG development projects (greenfield or brownfield) globally. Industry is starting to recognise that the current LNG oversupply will move towards undersupply within five years and there are few projects on track to fill the resulting gap. This should put Magnolia increasingly in the spotlight for buyers looking to fulfil demand in 2023 onwards. LNGL management has indicated it is in discussions with many companies across a diverse set of geographies and interests. We have adjusted our valuation to account for a delayed expectation of project FID, reducing it slightly to $A1.25/share (US$3.8/ADR).

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

New formulations extend Treakisym patent life

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 02 Nov 2017

SymBio has substantially increased the value of its Treakisym franchise through in-licensing novel bendamustine formulations from Eagle Pharmaceuticals for $12.5m. The new formulations bring a lower cost of goods and 10 years of additional patent protection to help in life cycle management of the Treakisym franchise. Sales of Treakisym following the approval of two new indications in 2016 have exceeded the company’s expectations, leading it to upgrade FY17 sales guidance. Interim data from the global Phase III rigosertib trial could become available during Q417. We value SymBio at $174m, with the enhanced Treakisym portfolio offsetting the suspension of IONSYS development.

Celyad

Revision of clinical strategy after responses seen

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 30 Oct 2017

Celyad has reported a complete morphological leukemia-free status (MFLS) response in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the NKR CAR T-cell THINK study. Spontaneous remission in refractory/relapsed AML is extremely rare, so this is a significant result. Importantly, the response was achieved with no toxic preconditioning. CYAD-01 has shown limited toxicities to date. The clinical strategy has been updated to focus on AML and colorectal cancer. Additionally, with the approvals of Yescarta (Gilead) at a price of $373k and Kymirah (Novartis) at $475k, we have increased our expected price for NRK CAR T-cell therapy to $200k, formerly $150k. The revised strategy and price assumption change moves the indicative value to $122 per ADR, formerly $61 per ADR.

Hutchison China MediTech

WCLC highlights savolitinib combination potential

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 19 Oct 2017

Data presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) on combination approaches to treat resistant EGFR-driven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) highlight a widening of the patient population that could be eligible to receive savolitinib in combination with either Tagrisso or Iressa. Partner AZN now has the data set to make a decision on global Phase III trials and evaluate breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) potential in both 2L and 3L EGFR-resistant NSCLC; in our view, data to date supports both. BTD could offer earlier entry into the US market. Furthermore, Phase II data presented on fruquintinib in combination with Iressa (first line EGFRm NSCLC) showed encouraging efficacy and acceptable safety. We place our forecasts and valuation under review as we revisit our peak sales assumptions.

Immutep

Support for anti-LAG-3 and APC-activator combos

ADR Update | Pharmaceutical & healthcare | 02 Oct 2017

Data presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) congress by third parties has positive implications for Prima Biomed’s LAG3 pipeline, both its in-house IMP321 APC activator and the anti-LAG3 program out-licensed to Novartis. Prima itself presented encouraging data from ongoing studies of IMP321 in FY17, including a 47% response rate in the run-in phase of its AIPAC breast cancer Phase II. Prima earned a $1m milestone from Novartis in August, showing that the partnered anti-LAG3 program is progressing. The company guides that the ~$5m raised from US investors in July extends the funding runway to Q4 CY18. We increase our valuation to $206m (vs $192m) or $8.75/ADR.